Punters Price Guide

[Formath]

Musselburgh 4.20 Sep 17

2/1 Secret Asset, improver
5/2 Russian Reel, best effort last week
7/2 Liberty Belle, off track 79 days and has something to prove
11/2 Thunder Bay, return to 5f will suit, but tough

15/1 Bespoke Boy
15/1 Know No Fear
15/1 Enodoc
33/1 La Guancha

Each runner filtered through 7 factors that have historically indicated winners. Rated and priced according to the calculated chance, including an increment for the book margin.
Best penalty value race on offer today and reasonable odds available.

[Formath]

Yarmouth 4.10

5/6 Greek Renaissance, progressive but off track 194 days
11/4 Something, leading contender but not won on turf since May 05
7/2 Masta Plasta, on a losing run of 14

22/1 H Harris
22/1 Replendent Alpha

Each runner filtered through 7 factors that have historically indicated winners. Rated and priced according to the calculated chance, including an increment for the book margin.

I should make it clear that the prices shown are my independent calculation and have absolutely no link to betting forecasts, the actual market, ratings etc. [/color:1f7zgz5i]

[Formath]

Sandown 3.30 Sep 19

5/2 Hobby, opportunity after 3rd over C&D, off track 55 days,G?
100/30 Billion Dollar Kid, improver that could go well. Hannon/Hughes combo
9/2 Giant Love, promising but more needed

5/1 Solent Ridge
7/1 Aye Aye Digby
7/1 Yem Kinn
18/1 Maxwil
50/1 Heart Of Dubai
? Royal Tartan

Independent prices as ever opposite my opinion of past performance. With regard to Hobby I am always dubious regarding females racing against male animals. I have a stat in my head that only 17% ever win, could be wrong tho’.

[Formath]

Yarmouth 4.10 Sep 20

3/1 Irish Quest, promising stayer and dropped 19lbs. M Jarvis
4/1 Ajaan, improver but can be quirky. Cecil/Durcan combo
11/2 Futun, everything will have to go right
11/2 Dundry, off track 80 days after a poor run at Goodwood in July

7/1 Aajel
7/1 Camps Bay
9/1 Mull Of Dubai
12/1 Metaphoric
40/1 Inchpast

An interesting all-aged hcap and my independently caculated odds reflect that. I always respect form/weight change in hcaps, not earth shattering news I know, although many pundits don’t agree with that opinion. The top 2 coupled could be the answer, couldn’t they?

[Formath]

Newbury 2.45 Sep 21

6/4 Papal Bull, the one to beat
3/1 Salford Mill, Derby 6th could come good
3/1 Bauer, not to be underestimated
9/2 Halicarnassus, more needed after credible efforts
18/1 Admiral’s Cruise, off track 71 days and below par then
35/1 Soapy Danger, off track for a year

The prices just reflect my opinion of chances on past performance but I wouldn’t be interested if the available odds get much shorter.

[Formath]

Newbury 2.35 Sep 22

15/8 Dark Angel, merits respect at this D
5/2 Strike The Deal, has every chance
100/30 Philario, comes here on top form
6/1 Berbice, probably a minor player, G?
15/2 Easy Target, has to prove himself
33/1 Jebel Tara, above class here

"The only thing that matters is the odds"[/color:3hqhh4e6]

I didn’t make that statement, it was Morton Coles, a successful pro-backer some years ago. His approach was endorsed by THE Split Second, Ken Hussey, and you couldn’t get better than that IMO.

[Formath]

Hamilton 4.10 Sep 23

3/1 Pivotal’s Princess, a major player if back to form
5/1 Morinqua, has a chance here
5/1 Mimi Mouse, good effort last time out
13/2 Loch Verdi, improver with a fair bit to find
15/2 Riotous Applause, could improve to win
17/2 Blue Echo
11/1 Katie Boo
14/1 Final Dynasty
14/1 Shes Minnie
14/1 Day By Day
18/1 Blue Rocket
60/1 Cashel Meade

Members seem totally underwhelmed by this thread judging by the lack of comment so far. I will let you into a secret, it is the basis for the ‘holy grail’ of consistent success for punting arrived at after 57 years involvement in the sport. Trust me, I am an old codger!

[Formath]

Hamilton 2.40 Sep 24

7/4 Welsh Emperor, the obvious choice at short odds
5/2 Strike Up The Band, soft going would suit
4/1 Come Out Fighting, very in and out this season
8/1 Big Timer
8/1 Opera Cape
14/1 Vondova
40/1 She’s Minnie

Practise assessment you could say today, slaving over a hot form book to little effect. You know it strikes me that longer than 10/1 neither me nor anyone else has much of a clue about odds except to say little or no chance

[Formath]

Beverley 3.10 Sep 25

2/1 The Trader, capable if on song but not won since June 2005
9/2 Bond City, contender but not at best recently
11/2 Hoh Hoh Hoh, should be thereabouts
13/2 Philharmonic, no excuses today
13/2 Tournedos
13/2 Stolt
8/1 Tabaret
40/1 Minimum Fuss

[Formath]

Goodwood 4.05 Sep 26

5/6 Illustriuos Blue, C&D list winner but off track 124 days.
6/5 Kirklees, improving 3-y-o
6/5 Windsor Knot, lightly raced with almost a year off track
9/1 Al Tarib
20/1 Formal Decree
20/1 Ordnance Row

An 8th factor in the form of trainer stats has been included in the filters. What effect this has remains to be seen.

[Formath]

Pontefract 3.50 Sep 27

5/2 Robustian, dropped in weight but has been disappointing
11/4 Gulf Express, lightly raced convincing winner last time out
11/4 Many Volumes, not won a hcap yet, 2nd to Kirklees won yesterday
7/2 Dancing Lira, off track 166 days, going suits
20/1 Zero Tolerance
20/1 Along The Nile
40/1 Fort Churchill

[Formath]

Ascot 3.45 Sep 28

11/4 All My Loving, just beat Brisk Breeze into 3rd recently
4/1 Brisk Breeze, in form and should go well
9/2 Mont Etoile, has been disappointing
11/2 Maid To Believe
11/2 Generous Gem
17/2 Under The Rainbow
12/1 Lake Toya
35/1 Dance Of Light
35/1 Guilia

[Formath]

Ascot 4.20 Sep 29

85/40 Darjina, sets the standard, G doubt?
100/30 Excellent Art, C&D should be thereabouts
7/2 Cesare, C&D3 probably a minor player
4/1 Ramonti, C&D beaten into 2nd by 2L last month by Darjina

11/1 Stormy River, minor role if any
14/1 Duke Of Marmalade, minor role possibility
50/1 Blue Ksar, too many too good. Pacemaker here.

[Formath]

Ascot 3.45Sep 30

11/4 Honolulu, high class improver
100/30 Young Mick, won this race last year but off track since
4/1 Laverock, acts on soft and should be thereabouts
5/1 Ask, off track 142 days after leg infection

6/1 Zahim
17/2 Hattan
15/1 Classic Punch
50/1 Acapulco

[Formath]

Salisbury 4.00 Oct 3

6/4 Berbice, obvious chance if handling the G
11/4 Oasis Wind, open to improvement
7/2 Aide Memoir, acts on easy and could be thereabouts
7/2 Gross Prophet, progressive but needs to improve

40/1 Carleton
40/1 Major Eazy

[Formath]

Not a very exciting thread so I thought I would stick to the principle but change the format and at the same time move to the jumps. A shortlist of probables for each race with any that are calculated as worth playing opposite their perceived chance. :

2.30 Fait Le Jojo, Indian Star (punter’s price 4/1)
3.05 The Entemologist, Contact Dancer (5/4), Ice Tea
3.40 Double Deputy, Matt The Thrasher, Daniel’s Dream (15/2 long shot this)
4.15 Super Revo, Keltic Lord, Tee-Jay (6/1), Newbay Lady (8/1)
4.50 Holiday Cocktail, Depraux (7/2)
5.20 Charlie George, Hollows Mist, Delaware

[Formath]

This thread is a bit of an indulgence but I couldn’t be accused of selecting ‘easy’ races. My idea of realistic odds are provided together with the opinion of RPR. Not that they may be significant as I checked Adrian Massey (Jack Sullivan) and PatterForm (Tucker). The result should be interesting. Each runner filtered through 9 critical factors, then scored and odds caculated:

Bath 4.20

5/2 Dijeerr, the one to beat, if fit (RPR 5/1)
7/2 Smart Enough, bold bid expected (RPR 9/2)
7/2 Gravitas, may need further? (RPR 9/2)
7/2 Tucker, no win for 15 races over 2 years plus? (RPR 9/2)
13/2 Minority Report (RPR 9/2)
10/1 Jack Sullivan (RPR 11/2)
50/1 Mesbaah (RPR 13/2)
50/1 Murfreesboro (RPR 125/1)

The significant defect in the assessment is the absence of significant, good, recent form – we can but try

[Author]

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