Punters Price Guide

[Formath]

Cheltenham World Hurdle over 24f on the soft side of good and a 2 horse race by all accounts with no value at all. However, in my experience, as I often indicate, proven speed matters in these high class non-hcap contests and those proven are No’s 14, 7, 1, 2 is there each-way value to be had? My ratings converted to a 100% book with the RP forecast over-round given as 121%. Any runner out to 10/1 may be considered IMO:

1. 7 22/1, D?
2. 10 10/1 Ashkazar, off track 75? LTO held up headway led stayed on well won +3.5L 1/7, has to be on a going day
3. 6 33/1, form?
4. 18 7/2 Big Buck’s, offtrack 78? LTO tracked led travelling strongly won +6L 1/6, unbeaten last 10
5. Non-runner
6. 10 10/1 Cross Kennon, LTO in touch led headed led kept on gamely won +6L 1/6, improver with slight concern over G?
7. 14 11/2 Fiveforthree, LTO tracked not fluent driven to lead ran on well easily won +4L 1/6, a little to find
8. 12 15/2 Grande Crus, G? LTO keen held up chased led drew clear very easily won +10L 1/14, going may not suit?
9. 10 10/1 Mourad, LTO tracked headway drew clear not extended impressive won +6L 1/6, progressive more to come
10. 5 66/1
11. 6 33/1
12. 7 22/1
13. 6 33/1, off track 343?
14. 7 22/1

[Formath]

The Oaks (fillies what can you do with ’em ). At this level speed is essential combined with form and luck in running and the proven fast runners are No’s 3,7,9. In which case Blue Bunting looks a worthy favourite. Taking a quick overall look at the form I came up with No’s 19, 3, 10 but Wonder of Wonders will ahve to get her skates on to win this. Siren’s Song could she be the each-way hit?

Filtering each runner through 9 factors that have proved critical to indicating winning selections in the past and rating them by judgement values the race looks like this to me:

1. 10
2. 5
3. 19 Blue Bunting
4. 8
5. 2
6. 4
7. 9
8. 8
9. 13 Misty For Me
10. 8
11. 2
12. 11 Wonder Of Wonders
13. 7

[billion]

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

The Epsom Derby where they have to handle the track configuration and get the distance. IMO speed can be the critical factor and proven fast runners are N’os 6, 10, 11, 9 so where does this leave Charlton House? I have priced those that appear to be contenders from rating their past form and Native Khan with the going against looks the each-way shot.

Epsom 4.00 (headings = cloth No, my form rating, my form price)

1. 16 6/1 Charlton House
2. 1
3. 6
4. 8
5. 7
6. 10 10/1 Native Khan (G?)
7. 6
8. 5
9. 10 10/1 Pour Moi
10. 15 13/2 Recital
11. 11 9/1 Seville
12. 9
13. 8

[Formath]

St Leger Stakes

As the favourite market will be rather short given the form I thought perhaps a couple of savers on the two apparent dangers to return better than £100 could be a way to have an interest and maybe make a few bob:

Sea Moon £50 remainder
Blue Bunting 4.4 = £30
Census 7 = £20

[Formath]

My mantra for over 30 years now has been that of successful old-time pro Morton Coles, which is; ‘The only thing that really matters is the odds’. So, when you have decided on a selection or selections in a race it is necessary to price them up for comparison with the market – any way that’s what I do .

In the past I found my ‘possibles’ by filtering fields through 8 or more critical factors to give a rating to be converted into form odds, which is interesting but time-consuming. However, lately I have been using the excellent Martin Kilgannon Pattern Form site data to achieve the rating and the price, and that is what I have done today. That being the case some may argue that my tissue and punter’s book may be complete nonsense and they may be right

Here is today’s offering where MY odds are staked to return at least £100.

Ayr 3.55
1. Mon Brav 11/1 £10
3. Espirit De Midas 12/1 £10
5. Klynch 10/1 £10
15. Amenable 10/1 £10
19. Namwahjobo 12/1 £10
23. Another Citizen £15

Ayr 4.30 (I also assessed this race but the Ponty Acclaim rating came out a 5/6 and Caledonia Lady came nowhere, which seems a bit odd – so Ponty with 2 savers).

3. Kool Henry 11/4 £40
4. Powerful Wind 4/1 £25
Ponty Acclaim 5/6 £35 being the remainder of my £100 stake.

[Formath]

In the final analysis this betting game is just opinion after all (my opinion has been cr*p lately ). If you don’t believe me how about the Newmarket 2.55 today according to some expert opinion by virtue of their ratings converted to odds:

Newmarket 2.55 (just the odds for those rated within 5 points of best in each case for – Formcast, RPR, Topspeed, one4 racing).

1. 9/1 – 11/1 – ?? – 9/2 (current Betfair 4.3)Coupe De Ville
2.
3.
4.
5. 9/1 – 10/1 – ?? – 5/1 (6.2) Mehdi
6. ?? – 11/1 – ?? – ?? (10)Balty Boys
7.
8.
9.
10.
11. ?? – 11/1 – ?? – ?? (44)Orders From Rome
12. 9/1 – 10/1 – 9/1 – ?? (11) Tell Dad
13.
14. 17/2 – 11/1 – ?? – ?? (8.2) Jubilance
15.
16.

Opinion: On form it looks like Coupe De Ville, Mehdi and the shorter odds reflect that whereas Tell Dad could be a reasonable each-way shot if speed is the critical factor.

[Formath]

Nothing really interests me for dutching today in the UK mainland racing cards. I did check the Goodwood 3.45 but the market is going to be too short opposite the risk involved . I could have a couple of savers to clear £100 and put the rest on Prince Siegfried instead, but I doubt it:

Goodwood 3.45

Prince Siegfried (Betfair f/c 5 – current market 5.7) £25
Debussy (f/c 4.3 – market 3.15) £50 to clear £100
Fallen Idol (f/c 9 -market 5.3) £25 to clear £100

[Anonymous]

Nothing really interests me for dutching today in the UK mainland racing cards. I did check the Goodwood 3.45 but the market is going to be too short opposite the risk involved . I could have a couple of savers to clear £100 and put the rest on Prince Siegfried instead, but I doubt it:

Goodwood 3.45

Prince Siegfried (Betfair f/c 5 – current market 5.7) £25
Debussy (f/c 4.3 – market 3.15) £50 to clear £100
Fallen Idol (f/c 9 -market 5.3) £25 to clear £100

Looks good. Good luck betting. I just lost a ton. I’m thinking of having a week off.

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[Author]

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