The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

The Insanity of Ward 7……

Home Forums Tipping and Research Systems The Insanity of Ward 7……

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 128 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #370864
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4379

    Hiya

    "Windy",

    glad you are on the mend.

    Now a little advice from my Mrs and you should be OK.

    Nothing wrong with a little roulette but NOT all bloomin’ day.

    Win a little and be satisfied and walk away until the next day – the trouble with us blokes she says is we will not be told! I disagree I tell her but not by you, then she gets the hump –

    women eh!

    I will be very pleased to read what you think have been your best systems and really look forward to what you have to say.

    Sure, I have found a lot of archive inspiration and not only from this place and it is interesting you mention

    THE MAJESTIC

    which can form the basis of some solid work. Things and times change just as you say and I will offer up a little piece of advice which is as I believe it to be, not one system will provide all the answers and sometimes an amalgam of different systems can work better and as one more knowledgeable than I once said to me, it is sometimes the more simple ideas if left uncomplicated can work better.

    My

    MAJESTIC

    is still evolving but is currently the best I have ever known and in fact it has changed so much I forget the original concept.

    The Majestic according to Darrel

    Non Handicap races
    Forcast Favourite (any paper)
    Former "D" Distance winner
    1.2.3 LTO
    Min 2/1

    IMO there are some superb elements incorporated within the concept and from it can be developed a sound start for selection but as old "Windy" says just because all the boxes get ticked you do not have to bet.

    VDW put forward his selection method and used it as a springboard to remove as many horses in the race as possible before further investigation and even then would not limit himself to just the one choice or even a bet.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #370918
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4379

    Come on

    "Windy"

    we are all waiting to see what you are about to come up with and starting to get impatient.

    I was looking (again) at The MAJESTIC and as said there really are some elements of it that simply cannot be argued with.

    There is another "good" man who uses these boards and introduced and broadend my mind to not only VDW but also CLIVE HOLT who both used there own rating methods as a precursor to their final selections.

    Clive Holt remarked he would never expect more from any selection that what it had already achieved and therefore a "D" distance win in the form line is a must.

    Recent form will be an indicator of both ability and fitness.

    So

    Darrel

    was on going in the right direction with his MAJESTIC

    Prices taken, well is one of those things that will always come down to the individual and will always be argued about.

    Darrel

    wanted a high strike rate and like VDW preferred Non Handicap races and I suggest this restricts choice and limits the prices but once more will be down to the system operator.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #370927
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    That surprised me Bully, it was almost intelligent….. There is no axe to grind with VDW with the exception that it’s quite complex and open to too many interpretations, in saying that, I believe VDW has his followers and they appear to be doing very well following his concepts, it’s just a shade more work than I intend to do…. after 50 years of betting, it’s time to let other simpler methods take the strain and I owe my continued existence in betting to these basic ideas, it is fair to say that I have taken the systems that have held me in good stead over the years and use them as it suits me…. they have been modified slightly as the years have gone by because of the arrival of new papers such as the Racing Post and of course, the arrival of the exchanges have thrown a few of the older systems into disarray, but time and effort from the younger ones can breathe new life into "forgotten gems"…..

    It is also true that you shouldn’t follow any system selection blindly, these systems only serve to give me a shortlist of selections for any given day, I may or may not actually bet them…. you mentioned Clive Holt, his method of ratings actually work well, but again, you have to be selective….. yes, it’s important with his ratings, to look for the Distance and or Course win, but that is not of paramount importance to me, the most important aid to my betting when using any ratings/selections, is the going. It’s a personal thing I suppose, but I think that for me, the most important criteria to have on my side is the going…… I have no problem betting a horse on slow or heavy ground if that horse is a confirmed mudlark but I’d steer well clear if that horse had only ever ran well on good/firm….. just one of my many foibles…..
    TO BE CONTINUED……
    :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :P that last ones especially for you Bill…..

    MrE

    #370928
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    My reason for making my selections using systems/methods is to give me a group of selections from which I can strike a bet….. I always use a staking plan to suit whichever method I’m using, but I record to level stakes…… I see no reason whatsoever in not putting the updates and running totals on here for all members to see, I’m nonplussed at members who put the selections down and just don’t record their profit/loss, that’s a pointless operation because there aint many members that are going to go through all the maths just to work out whether a set of selections is worth following, so I would always keep my methods up to date providing I aint dead or dear old Matron’s tired me out riding a prolonged hectic final furlong, then I would leave it until the following day…. :roll:
    Although I’m a great believer in "value", it doesn’t always follow that all my bets are going to be big prices, but prices (and value) are linked to my strike rate and therefore I have no problems with "dutching" or splitting stakes on selections made in the same race as long as a profit can be made whichever of the selection wins, I don’t bet to break even or to "save" should my selection go astray, I bet to win money, not to break even…… if I lose, there’s always tomorrow…… but all that is applicable to staking plans and not system selections, but why I mention them both is that this is what I’m about…. I am into "systematic betting" in it’s complete form, systems are to do with BOTH selection AND staking…… belt and braces……

    The systems that I will put up over the next few days are all "working" systems, by that I mean that they actually do work…. I define a "working" system as one that produces a reasonable profit over any 12 month period…. there will be losing or skinny months, but over 1 year it will show you reasonable profits……
    A reasonable profit will be different between you and me, but I consider myself long enough in the tooth to know what isn’t achievable from betting, so my criteria for "reasonable profit" is that I should make between 5pts and 10pts profit per month with an ROI of at least 15%…..
    As stated earlier, it is up to yourselves to squeeze any extra out of these methods, you can modify them to your hearts content, it’s pleasing to know that you can mess around and change criteria when your safe knowing that the basic method is a safe foundation, because, should you falter and stumble, you can still go back to a profitable beginning……
    :D :D :D :D

    MrE

    #370944
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4379

    :D Yes I am "Very Happy" you are still with us.

    :) Smile, as I expect from an old "Windbag"

    :( Sad, Nothing new (so far)

    :o Surprised I could not find a "smiley" for yawning.

    :shock: Shocked at the thought all profit and losses should be shown.

    :? Confused, with so much waffle I am easily confused.

    8) Cool, well I shall give you the benefit of doubt.

    :lol: I am sure there will be something to laugh about.

    :x Mad, you are so bloomin long winded.

    :P Back to you.

    :oops: I am sure we will both be embarassed before too long.

    :cry: Cry, if you don’t hurry up after all you have had a month off.

    :evil: :twisted: NO, never.

    :roll: Don’t think I will ever understand why you take so long.

    :?: I am sure there will be many questions.

    :idea: I hope you come up with lots.

    :| Neutral, the jury is out but not for long.

    :arrow: It could mean "get along" I guess

    :mrgreen: Mr Green, well I will be soon :!:

    :wink: :wink: :wink: :wink: :wink: Save the best till last :wink: :wink:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #371010
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Bully boy….. patience is a virtue and you appear to be lacking in that particular virtue….. but, since you seem to be hell bent on self destruction, let me be the first to give you that kick into the abyss…… I’ll start as soon as I’ve had my breakfast, finished my caring duties for a 95 year old MIL. and studied the racing for today….. sorry Bully, this is a bit more waffle and you will still have to wait, but is it worth it??…. that’s what you’ve gotta ask yourself punk, do you feel lucky??….. :lol: :lol: sorry Bill, you’ve just got one of those faces that need winding up….. a bit like Doc Martin….
    :D :D :D :D

    MrE

    #371025
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    I’m not a happy bunny today guys, bloody insurance companies….. my car is in the garage because my cam followers are knackered and the car sounds like a bag of nails, but, as luck would have it, I was still 6 months inside an AA 5 Star Warranty period….. I found out this morning that they won’t cover the repairs because it’s down to "wear and tear"…… result is that I have to pay the £561 bill in full, that hurts a bit……
    :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

    MrE

    #371034
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    OK girls, this system used to be called The Golden Goose but it has been modified several times to keep up to date…. the idea was to get a shortlist of horses together and then make selections from that "knot" of horses, I took it a step further (rightly or wrongly) and decided to curtail the time spent on further analysis, so I started betting the selections by dutching…… but this is the basic system…..

    Handicap races only (inc Nurseries) with 10 runners or less…..
    Selected races should be Class 3 or above but if no selection from these, drop down to Class 4…..
    All selected races to be 7 furlongs or more…..
    From the applicable races, note down the FIRST 4 in the betting forecast taken from the Racing Post…..
    Nip over to Betfair and also note down the prices of your 4 selections that are quoted at the time…..
    Now discard any races where your shortest price is LESS than 3.50….
    Any races that are left will have 4 selections (the first 4 in the betting according to the RP) with a minimum price of 3.50….. we only intend to "dutch" 3 of these, so a further selection must be discarded…. firstly we kick out any selection where the price is in double figures, we then "dutch" the remaining 3 selections….
    If ALL 4 selections are under 10.00 in Betfair, we still have to discard one, so we boot out the shorter priced selection…… sounds complicated but it’s quite simple and very quick….. for examples, look below….. all prices were taken at about 1.00pm and probably bear no resemblance to BSP…..

    Wed 14th…. 3.45 Bev.. Dubawi Dancer…. 3.60….
    Light Blow…. 6.60….
    Gottany O’s…. 6.20….
    The Bells of Peover…. 7.00….

    all selections were under 10.00 so the shorter priced Dubawi Dancer was NOT a bet….. The Bells of Peover won giving a successful "dutch"…. total bet was £8.37 for a return of £18.37 or a profit of +£10……
    A second bet on the same day was….

    5.00 Yarm… Top Diktat…. 5.00….
    Fantasy Gladiator…. 8.80….
    Hawaana…. 10.50….
    Mujrayaat…. 6.00….

    Hawaana was into double figures and was therefore discarded…. result was that Mujrayaat won and another winning dutch, this time it was another profit of +£10 for an outlay of £9.24…..
    There was a third race on that day too but that was a losing race and gave us a loss of £11.98….. so for the complete day there was a profit of +£8.00 from a total risk of just under £30…. that’s an ROI of around 26%…..
    You could have stopped at the first or second win and be well in front, but that’s all about staking and has no bearing on these rules….. but to put it into perspective, £10 level stakes on Wednesday would have cost you £90, the returns on the day would have been £130, that’s 4pts profit at levels or a 50% ROI…..

    Paper Trade first guys….. then try your own ideas to improve it and make it even better….. how can you make it better??…. perhaps picking 2 instead of 3, can we safely kick out another selection without it hurting too much…. it’s up to you lot now……
    :D :D :D :D :D

    MrE

    #371036
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4379

    There will be a couple of "Gentlemen", dare I say more mature years

    (as per you and me)

    who do love their Dutching and I am sure if and when they come out of their bunkers could well have something to say about this one

    Windy

    .

    I am sure they will love it, that is if they are not already playing it – How long do you think it has been around? I mean if it is prior WW2 (was going to say WW1 but perhaps that is just too cruel) there is a chance they are not aware of it but we shall see.

    :wink:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #371040
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Hi Bill…. I was doing this in the 60’s with my local bookies…. that was Will Hill and the Sporting Life…. I never dutched in those days, I just put the extra work in to find just the one bet that I thought should win, I might have done a "saver" in those days, but that’s doubtful….. I had this bee in my bonnet in those days, never bet two in a race, if you couldn’t find a winner from 3 selections, you were an idiot then…. but we know different now…. as you say, we’ve matured with age…..
    Just as an addendum, today’s results were…. just ONE race today….
    4.10 Yarm.. Zuider Zee…. 3.55….
    Thubiaan…. 4.70….
    Huff and Puff…. 13.00….
    Bowdler Magic…. 7.80….

    Huff and Puff discarded due to price….. winner was Bowdler Magic, so another +£10 in the bank…..
    :D :D :D :D

    MrE

    #371041
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4379

    Although this is not one for me I never mind sticking my nose in where it is not wanted.

    The value of consistency is paramount and if you intend to use RP forecast sp’s anyone must remain faithful to them.

    I did run through my "daily" and never found anything but when I re-checked Yarmouth 4.10 Bowdlers Magic is shown as 6th in the betting.

    :roll: :roll: :roll:

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #371046
    elcartero
    Participant
    • Total Posts 848

    Yep…4th in the betting in the RP
    also top rated by Formcast in the Mail altho, as Bill says not in the first four in the Mail betting forecast.
    Well done MrE….I sincerely hope you haven’t given the game away….if it affects my prices I shan’t be at all happy!

    Powered by Peppermint Linux

    #371063
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    I didn’t know that you were following this method elc, so apologies for that…. you win some, you lose some….. but I must have misunderstood that these forums were meant to help other members out, if that was wrong, I stand corrected…..
    There will be a few more goodies over the next couple of weeks elc, so you had better hang onto your nuts……
    :D :D :D :D

    MrE

    #371069
    elcartero
    Participant
    • Total Posts 848

    That’s alright, MrE…..my fault, I forgot the :D .

    It was an excellent post highlighting what I consider to be one of the best winner finding methods I have seen over the past few decades.
    Please keep your contributions coming…they are always an enjoyable and thought provoking read and I’m sure I’m not the only one who will benefit from the dialogue they will inevitably inspire.

    Powered by Peppermint Linux

    #371072
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4379

    Blimey

    "Windy"

    you are giving

    elcartero

    sleepless nights getting him at the machine before 8.00 a.m.

    Mind you I cannot disagree with his sentiments but as with most thought provoking postings on the board will and should come a few questions either for clarity or improvement.

    And so I ask you if it would not better to use an odds comparison site rather than betfair?

    betfair is limited to the ONE market whereas a spectrum of prices are available via just one comparison site.

    :| :?: :wink:

    Billy's Outback Shack

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 128 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.