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OK…. there is only one race for us today…..
5.05 Ayr…. Bollin Judith…. 6.00….
Boss’s Destination…. 5.40….
Puy D’Arnac…. 6.20….
Mohawk Ridge…. 10.50….Because Mohawk Ridge is to big it is discarded leaving us with the top 3….. a dutch at these prices to win a tenner will cost me £10.54….. that’ll do me… I’ve got the first three in the market in a 9 horse race, gotta be worth a bet…..
MrE
I’ll see if I can be a bit more "windy" and spout out some answers…. I can only speak as I find…..
Bully Boy….. about using Oddschecker, I’m afraid I just stick with Betfair these days, no reason really Bill, it’s just that I was following and checking so many systems at one time, that I had to start reducing the workload…. that why I suggest that some of the young ‘uns get stuck in and see if they can improve on it….. but, in my defence, if you compare those prices that you quoted above, it is obvious why Betfair is used, the difference in those odds is quite decent when trying to grab some profit……
Elc….. sorry I misjudged that posting mate, a smiley would have lightened the moment…. I thought that you were having a whinge….. apologies again…..
Generally, it is down to each individual to use their own filters if they wish to reduce the selections any further…. in the past I have used Holt’s Fineform Formula, as Formath has suggested, to further narrow the field, but, woe is me, I have kept no record of this because I felt that I had no need….. the only thing that I can say is that there must be a reason why I have not included it, so perhaps that filter didn’t work as well as expected….. I really have no idea, perhaps you guys can burn the midnight oil now, I feel like I’ve been doing that for the last 1000 years…..
The filter that I remember being quite good is in my next post, but I got fed up of missing a few winners, so I then decided it would save me any soul searching if I just dutched all three, then I couldn’t berate myself for any missing winners…..
MrE
My mouths gone dry from all this "chat", I think that you ought to buy me a bottle of summat Bill….. Grouse would slide down nicely….. I don’t want none of your Australian crap though, you can stick Foster’s where the sun don’t shine……
OK, the filter….. the one that I found most promising was to bet just the two bigger prices from your three FINAL selections (so nowt in double figures)….. you lose a few winners, but they are the shorter priced selections and don’t hurt too much….. this would give you these results since 10th Sept….10th… Repeater…. 5.00….
Burano…. 8.20…. We lost a winner in Anjaz @ 4.00….Swift Alhaarth…. 4.20…. WINNER….
Tepmokea…. 9.50….
12th… Escape To Glory…. 5.50….
Guru of Gloom…. 7.60…. WINNER….
13th… Alsahil…. 6.00….
Persian Peril…. 5.50…. we lost a winner in Snow Hill @ 3.85….Croquembouche…. 5.20….
Pickled Pelican…. 5.10….. WINNER……
14th… Light Blow…. 6.60….
The Bells of Peover…. 7.00…. WINNER….Fantasy Gladiator…. 8.80….
Mujrayaat…. 6.00…. WINNER…..Shooting Line…. 7.60….
Aerial Acclaim…. 5.10…. ALL 3 selections lost….
15th… Thubiaan…. 4.70….
Bowdlers Magic…. 7.60…. WINNER…..So, from these results you can see that we lost two winners at 3.85 and 4.00, but you have to weigh those losses against the reduced risk on the other bets….. the benefit is in using this extra filter and only bet two in a race, but I get really wazzed off when the fav comes in and I aint on it, made me feel sick as a pig, so I’ve opted to do all three…. at the end of the day, it’s down to you do do whatever you feel comfortable with, but if you find a filter to further improve on this, I would be honoured if you put it up on this board for the other members that degrade themselves to dare to enter the portals of Matron’s domain…… if they can lower themselves to the humiliation of a visit to Ward 7, then they are sorely in need of help……
If this filter was used for today’s shot in the dark, you would be left with a simple dutch on Bollin Judith @ 6.00 and Puy D’Arnac @ 6.20……
I hope this helps guys…..
MrE
The posters curse has struck again on the first time of posting….. you just gotta laff….. it’s no wonder that we’re all bloody crackers down here, it’s the wet rot getting in…… if you choose betting on horses for a living, you’d better make an appointment with Matron for some of that electrode treatment…. better luck tomorrow…. that puts us £10.54 down at present after Day 1….. (or -£30 at levels)…..
MrE
My mouths gone dry from all this "chat", I think that you ought to buy me a bottle of summat Bill….. Grouse would slide down nicely….. I don’t want none of your Australian crap though, you can stick Foster’s where the sun don’t shine……
OK, the filter….. the one that I found most promising was to bet just the two bigger prices from your three FINAL selections (so nowt in double figures)….. you lose a few winners, but they are the shorter priced selections and don’t hurt too much…..That’s the option I would have instinctively chosen, MrE but I’m glad to have it confirmed by someone whose experience I have come to respect. As you say, the short-priced winners that are missed are counter-balanced by the saving of a third of your stakes…but we’ll see.
this would give you these results since 10th Sept….
10th… Repeater…. 5.00….
Burano…. 8.20…. We lost a winner in Anjaz @ 4.00….Swift Alhaarth…. 4.20…. WINNER….
Tepmokea…. 9.50….
12th… Escape To Glory…. 5.50….
Guru of Gloom…. 7.60…. WINNER….
13th… Alsahil…. 6.00….
Persian Peril…. 5.50…. we lost a winner in Snow Hill @ 3.85….Croquembouche…. 5.20….
Pickled Pelican…. 5.10….. WINNER……
14th… Light Blow…. 6.60….
The Bells of Peover…. 7.00…. WINNER….Fantasy Gladiator…. 8.80….
Mujrayaat…. 6.00…. WINNER…..Shooting Line…. 7.60….
Aerial Acclaim…. 5.10…. ALL 3 selections lost….
15th… Thubiaan…. 4.70….
Bowdlers Magic…. 7.60…. WINNER…..So, from these results you can see that we lost two winners at 3.85 and 4.00, but you have to weigh those losses against the reduced risk on the other bets….. the benefit is in using this extra filter and only bet two in a race, but I get really wazzed off when the fav comes in and I aint on it, made me feel sick as a pig, so I’ve opted to do all three…. at the end of the day, it’s down to you do do whatever you feel comfortable with, but if you find a filter to further improve on this, I would be honoured if you put it up on this board for the other members that degrade themselves to dare to enter the portals of Matron’s domain…… if they can lower themselves to the humiliation of a visit to Ward 7, then they are sorely in need of help……
If this filter was used for today’s shot in the dark, you would be left with a simple dutch on Bollin Judith @ 6.00 and Puy D’Arnac @ 6.20……So only two points were lost in a race with an unexpected result (157 day absence after 3 AW outings and a trainer with 0% success in that kind of race at Ayr…..it happens!)
I hope this helps guys…..
Yep…thanks MrE….there’s a couple of likely races tomorrow so we’ll see.
MrE
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Ha! I don’t want any of your Australian crap!
http://www.bundabergrum.com.auA little "Bundi" rum should do the trick and cheer you up you ol’ Windbag.
Billy's Outback Shack
It looks to me as if Saturday will be a blank day.
Ayr 5.35 C3 Handicap with 10 declared.
Bridle Belle 5/1
Bollin Greta 11/2
Lexington Bay 6/1
Billy's Outback Shack
It looks to me as if Saturday will be a blank day.
Ayr 5.35 C3 Handicap with 10 declared.
Bridle Belle 5/1
Bollin Greta 11/2
Lexington Bay 6/1
No Bill……
Delete any race where the shortest price is below 3.50
(5/2) so the race is a qualifier.
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Confusion reigns once metric and fractions become intermingled.
Thanks
elcartero
for clearing this up
Billy's Outback Shack
G’day to you Mate,
As we entering the final phase of the Flat Racing year and the "Goose" will have to be shelved, I was wondering if there is a "Turkey" version for the festive Jumps season that is just as bootiful?
Billy's Outback Shack
1.40 Ayr is now a GG race.
Betfair at 12.28
Risky Art 3.3 (Deleted)
Montaser 3.4 (Deleted if only two selections required)
Zakreet 7.6
Holy Roman Warrior 8.4Powered by Linux
Hi guys…. Yep, Elc is right about 1.40 Ayr as being a qualifying race, but the figures are not quite right although the end result is the same….. I think that you lot might be going in a bit to early in the day and you risk missing out on races that drop into our qualifying criteria due to later non runners…. I try to go in at between 12.30pm and 1.00pm, the prices and runners are usual pretty stable about then….. today I went in at about 1 o’clock…. so the selections for me were as follows…..
1.40 Ayr… Montaser…. 4.00…. (Deleted)….
Risky Art…. 4.20….
Zakreet…. 6.80….
Holy Roman Warrior…. 6.40…..5.35 Ayr… Sharp Relief…. 5.00….
Bridal Belle…. 4.90….
Bollin Greta…. 9.20….
Lexington Bay…. 10.00…. (Deleted)….Also, if the shorter priced of the selections is not 3.50 or better, the race does not qualify….. at the time of betting, your minimum price, BEFORE ANY DELETIONS, must be 3.50….. so if you had made your decisions at the time that you did, that race would NOT have qualified because of the odds of 3.30…..
Bill…. you will probably be pleased to hear that this system is an all rounder, it works on the jumpers too….. it’s just using logic as a betting lever….. providing a specialist paper like the Racing Post assesses that those horses are the best 4 in a race, you are essentially splitting an 8 horse race into two…. 4 horses have a chance and 4 horses don’t and we are using the exchanges to confirm that fact….. we are then free to bet them if the odds are in our favour…. it’s not beneficial to bet all 4, but using a minimum price of 3.50 means that we can profitable cover at least three of those 4….. logical, and it’s job done……
MrE
By Jove I think I am getting IT
Golden Goose JUMPERS
Sounds like something my dear old nan used to make
Right ‘O
MrE
lets shoot from the hip and fire you a couple of questions, take your time and be as long winded as you want but do remember there are a couple of NH meetings tomorrow
Split an 8 horse race into two, does this mean we will only be looking for races of 8 and not 10?
Handicap (and Novice) races only?
The distance – well with 7f+ flat races the logic is to limit the unsuspected winners and so is the distance as crucial over the jumps?
Related to distance and tring to eliminate the unexpected my logic is telling me to avoid the hurdles and select only chases.
I have marked off the 3.00 & 4.00 Plumpton races tomorrow both are chases but the 4.00 is a novice.
All interesting stuff and your thoughts will be considered.
Billy's Outback Shack
Beginers Luck (Saturday) possibly even a little serendipity but who cares how they come.
Sunday
Cannot find any flat races to qualify – wrong distance or low forecast favourite
National Hunt Experiment: –
Plumpton 3.30 C4 Handicap Chase 3m 2f & 9 declared
1 Aghill 7/2
2 Breaking Silence 9/2
3 Krisallo 9/2
4 Call at Midnight 11/2
Uttoxeter 4.20 C4 Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f & 9 declared
1 What’s Occurrin 3/1
2 Castle Rock 4/1
3 Paddy the Hare 5/1
4 Consulate 6/1
Billy's Outback Shack
Sheeesh!!!!… I dunno what your drinking Bill, but save a drop for me mate….. firstly, the 3.30 at Plumpton was a CLASS 3 and not a Class 4 as you stated, secondly, none of those horses that you listed were anywhere near what the selections should have been, I have a feeling that you were on a different race entirely….. thirdly, that other race that you called wasn’t even a qualifying race because there was another race that was Class 3, this was 3.50 at Uttoxeter….. so my friend, the qualifying races today and the selections were as follows……
3.30 Plump… Beaubrav…. 5.30….
Farleigh House…. 4.00….
Mr Harmoosh…. 6.80…. WINNER…..
Akinndi…. 12.00…. (Deleted)….3.50 Uttox… Taratata Sivola…. 5.10…. (Deleted)….
Horshoe Reef…. 6.40….
Benbane Head…. 6.80…. WINNER….
Just Victor…. 9.60….That gave us another two winning bets today and we’ve now got our heads in front….. I’ll do all the updates later tonight and I will include the two selection dutches as well as the three that I use….. I’ll bring it all up to date so that you can form your own opinion on what is probably the best lager in the world……
MrE
Hi guys, there’s a growing number of members starting to follow this, we’ve had over 200 views in 3 days, lets hope they all come in from the cold and start adding to the list of profitable systems for us all to follow….. with the amount of members on this forum, it should be making profits hand over fist……
MrE
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