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Trawled through 15 pages and no-one has mentioned my ante-post fancy!
Scotsirish
is the one I like at massive prices.
A good second in the Topham last year on first run over the fences, when he carried top weight of 11-12. Has usually ran in top class 2m/2m4f races, but was also placed in the Punchestown Gold Cup two years ago on ground much softer than he likes.
Has to be a doubt about whether he’ll stay. He’s by Zaffaran – anyone give me any pointers?
Also not sure about the record of Topham horses graduating to the National? Extra mile and a half takes some getting.
But on the whole, given that he has already taken to the National fences, he likes to be up with the pace (not necessarily a front-runner), favours good ground, has a touch of class, the backing of Willie Mullins (possibly Paul Townend too, who was on board in the Topham) and a decent racing weight (11-2) I’m happy to take three-figure prices on the machine…
Of the other Mullins ones, I think The Midnight Club is too short (especially as his last four wins, stretching back to 2008, have come on ground with ‘heavy’ in the description) and Ballytrim is a sketchy jumper).
Can’t understand why Arbor Supreme should be three times the price of Midnight Club (10lbs better off for a length beating last time out).
Anyway, enough from me…
dis.
Read a quote somewhere from Meade saying he’ll probably run Nicanor because "I don’t want him winning an ordinary beginners’ chase – if he wins a novice chase I want it to be a good one".
But you’d imagine that neither he nor Aran Concerto will run on quickish ground.
I like a few at bigger prices.
I think Snowy Morning is well over-priced at the 33s available. Aimed for this race since finishing a good third 12 months ago and hasn’t had his preferred good ground since.
Looks a similar enough profile to WP Mullins’ Hedgehunter which ran well in a National as an 8yo before coming back at 9.
Up 11 lbs since last year but on his subsequent run behind Neptune Collonges at Punchestown, that looks fair, even a bit lenient.
The other one at a bigger price I like is Battlecry. Definitely been disappointing this season but I think he’s a spring good ground horse, had fair form in good novice company last year and as a Hemmings horse has probably had this race in mind all year.
I’ve liked My Will for this since his Hennessy run and War of Attrition is well in at the weights but both are too short for me now.
dis.
here’s my thruppence.
the race is usually won by something low enough in the weights, and with age on its side.
If Newmill (rated 142) doesn’t run, the rates will rise by at least ten lbs.
Kirbybroguelantern is second rated at 132, so a horse rated 118 could equate to a racing weight of 10st 12lbs.
Narrowing it down to horses which carry no more than that, and aged 6 or 7 (seven of the last ten winners), the tentative and lengthy short-list is:
(NOTE: weights if Kirbybroguelantern is top weight)
Bolodenka (10st 1lb)
Kronos (10-7)
Mullicagh Lass (10-2)
Penny’s Bill (10-4)
Pistol Flash (9-13)
Robin Du Bois (10-12)
Sanglote (10-11)
Sophocles (10-9)
Superior Ben (10-6)
Turtle Time Lucky (10-4)On grounds of price (6s or so) and possibly weight, I can’t have Robin Du Bois. He could be a machine, but if there is one rule I follow in race-betting, I don’t back horses priced up short on lofty reputations.
On all known form, can’t have Kronos, Mullicagh Lass, Penny’s Bill, Superior Ben. Sanglote I’m finding it difficult to weigh up. Sophocles has ability but has shown nothing in his last few runs, tailed off over Christmas. Turtle Time Lucky I expect to run well without winning.
Which leaves me with two.
PISTOL FLASH (best price 25/1)
BOLODENKA (best price 33/1)dis.
Don’t mean to be a cheapskate (
) but what did Pricewise go for in Wednesday’s ante-post King George recommendation?Has anyone tried clicking on each header in the race-cards to sort the card in various ways – eg by official rating, by weight, by saddle-cloth number?
When I saw that you could do that, I thought it was a good idea.
But, but, but…
That shuffle effect is a complete waste of time AND computer resources. It’s done using javascript I assume, but the shuffle thingy looks like the bright idea of a speccy-eyed computer boffin who’s never looked at a racecard in his life. Yep, it will look good if it works well and immediately, but on my computer it took about five minutes to re-sort the entries for one single race.
What a complete balls-up!
I was giving them the benefit of the doubt yesterday…
…but it really does seem like the biggest website cock-up I’ve ever seen.
How can they get it this wrong? I’m an internet programmer and I warrant that I, alone, for about 5000 quid, would have been able to program it to work without much fuss.
If the site cost any major part of the GBP10m supposedly allotted for "online expansion", someone’s head should roll….
I know the topic is "in the UK" but I’ve been really impressed by Gordon Elliott in Ireland.
He’s starting to get sent some horses from big owners now – such as Tharawaat, (Gigginstown/Michael O’Leary) who looks the top juvenile we’ve seen this side of the water so far.
Generally maximises the winning chances of all his horses.
Ok, so I’ve just spent half an hour with one of my Firefox tabs trying to load a simple racecard from racingpost.com.
I’m in agreement about the flash banners – I have a Firefox plug-in which automatically blocks them and gives me the option of playing them or not – and they’ll have to iron out the issues about speed.
But….
Am I the only one who likes it?
Thought the old site really needed a makeover. Once they get over the teething problems, it’s still going to be the best racing site on the web by a distance.
d.
Was disappointed that Hardy Eustace wasn’t battling out the finish to be honest. Doesn’t really make Sizing Europe or Jered look great does it even if the former will come on for the run.
I think both Sizing Europe and Jered are ones to watch for the rest of the season. Sizing will come on for the run last time, no problem, and can see him contesting the finish up the hill in March.
Jered needs quick ground to be at his best. Would have no problem turning around form with Hardy over 2 miles on quick ground. Not sure if he’ll get it quick enough even at Cheltenham, though, given the tendency to leave it Good to Soft for the first day of the Festival. Reckon he’ll be the one to beat at Punchestown in April, though.
hoses for courses as they say
The ground is soft or heavy – hardly much need for watering.
My Will is my outside hope for the Welsh National.
Will be watching with interest in the Hennessy on Saturday to see how he shapes up.
Has been dropped a few lbs since his last run and if Schofield takes off a few more he could get into the Welsh national carrying something like 10-10.
dis.
My worry about Alberta’s is the ground.
My only worry too.
Anyone in the vicinity of Newbury or that part of England who can tell us if there’s been much rain?
I agree with one poster, Big Buck’s might be a talking horse.
But surely the biggest talking horse in the race is Air Force One. Mann has been talking him up forever but he has been routinely exposed in the top class races.
How he’s half the price of Alberta’s Run, who gave him weight and a sizeable beating on two runs last season, I’ll never know.
My worry about Alberta’s is the ground. Doesn’t want any rain, it seems, and they’re forecast some at Newbury.
I would give Slim Pickings a serious chance. We know he’s competitive off this mark (placed in the National in April, when he looked like he didn’t really get home). Might be a doubt over him staying the 3m 2f here too but ground should suit, very smooth jumper and can see him running very well at a decent price.
Reverse Forecast: Alberta’s Run & Slim Pickings.
dis.
Good one David.
And smart words from Anzum too…
Was thinking about making Hedgehunter a possible bet even before I heard Ruby was definitely on board.
At around 33 on Betfair, I think he has to be value. An incredible record on the track and with the compressed nature of the race this year, he only has to give a stone or so to the bottom weights…
) but what did Pricewise go for in Wednesday’s ante-post King George recommendation?