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If you ride a horse in the National like Murphy did Comply Or Die, blinkers are no hinderence whatsoever. If you were to get half a dozen ridden like that, however…
Back on topic, does anyone know anything about Over The Creek? He’s a big price, I’m assuming he’s met a setback?
I’ve done horses A-C.
Church Island seems to fit the profile. 4th in 2007 Irish GN, missed last season, has had a couple of runs already this season.
Hi
a couple that aren’t being quoted in the betting, but I think might be being aimed at the GN are Ungaro and Hoo La Baloo.
Can Ungaro’s run in the Whitbread be written off as just coming at the end of a long season, or doesn’t he stay more than 3m?
I’d really love Hoo La Baloo to win the GN, he only runs a bad race every 5 or so. He ran 12 times in 2007, and 9 in 2006. And for the breeding purists, his grandfathers are Northern Dancer and Arazi
For those of you having images of him running 2m around Sandown and Ascot, he came 3rd in the Whitbread, and ran in a 4miler last time.What about Air Force One?…is the National on his agenda.
Seems the right type of chaser (maybe not on trends/stats) but a strong travelling, safe jumping staying sort with a touch of class.What about Air Force One?…is the National on his agenda.
Seems the right type of chaser (maybe not on trends/stats) but a strong travelling, safe jumping staying sort with a touch of class.I’ve taken the 229/1 on Betfair, but Mann was quoted 16 March 2007 that the horse will be a Gold Cup horse in 2 years time (ie, 2009). Can’t do both?
(I was pigheaded, and on principle took the 330 for the Hennessy favourite, 230 for the Hennessy 2nd favourite, and I think 330 again for the Welsh National favourite to win the GN. Should this admission belong on the 2008/09 crazy ante-post thread?)
Quite a few GN types are entered for the 1.55 at Cheltenham on Friday. However, who’ll be turning up?
Presumably Possol will be favourite, and he might not have much to beat, in terms of current form.
Comply Or Die, Simon, Mon Mome (just having a looksee?) , Trabolgan! (ditto?) It would be nice to see Church Island in the flesh . . well, at least on the box.
The (ex?) Gold Cup hopeful Alberta’s Run.
Hennessy withdrawal Character Building.Erm, sorry for this new thread . . . it was supposed to be part of the Grand National thread. I haven’t got the hang of using this website yet.
Fair play Gerald. That’s a magnificent post and you need to be congratulated.
I am a bit of an amateur historian on the National and to me it is the be all and end all and all roads lead to it.
Pedigree, to me, is paramount. Old Vic was the third Sadlers Wells sire (in the space of just over a year) to have produced a winner over four miles when Comply Or Die won last year with Butlers Cabin (Poliglote) and Old Benny (Saddlers Hall) the other two and Sadlers Wells’ stallions will dominate staying chases for some years to come I feel (Kayf Tara and Milan will probably have their fair share in time with my hunch being that Kayf Tara will replace the much missed Roselier as the premier stallion for marathon chasers) . Of course Comply Or Die’s damsire Furry Glen (I believe he won the 1000 Guineas) as a sire himself produced NH Chase heroine Loving Around so he was always going to like long distance chases. Snowy Morning was indeed related to that grand but quirky staying chaser Him Of Praise. King Johns Castle’s pedigree was more difficult to predict. His dams side was and still is pretty much unknown but his sire Flemensfirth was himself by the mighty Alleged who also produced Hedgehunter and Monty’s Pass’ sire Montelimar. Personally there wasn’t enough for me to go on with KJC so I admit I disregarded him completely.
There are one or two very interesting pedigrees I have noted for this years race, which I am keeping close to my chest for now but if they appear in the entries in January I will let you know.
I’m so glad it’s not just me that starts thinking about next years race the minute this years has finished!
Don’t know about you moehat but Christmas doesn’t even come close to National day.
I trudge forlornly through the Flat season in the hope that one day they’ll stick a few brush hurdles in the middle of the Chester Vase or one of the fences from Haydock develops a mind of its own and careers down the M1 and conveniently parks itself in the home straight at Epsom.
f (I believe he won the 1000 Guineas).
Erm, you might want to edit that bit.
Although I’ve always followed racing (since 6!), I’ve only just started betting again. Flemensfirth was a name that passed me by. I haven’t entered the sires of all 240+ horses in my spreadsheet yet, but Flemensfirth is the name that springs out at me. He’s got Best Profile (NTD), Imperial Commander, Joe Lively, King Johns Castle, Ponmeoath (twice winner of Kerry National in Sept) (just put £2 on at 250, I think), and Vedelle (JJO’N).
Was Ponmeoath one of the ones under your hat?
Gerald
Hey, as this thread hasn’t been deleted, I’m going to fly with it.
I mentioned Church Island as on the GN long-range thread I pointed out that 6 of the past 15 winners of the GN have had significant layoffs. Church Island was a closeish 4th to Butlers Cabin in the 2007 Irish GN, and then was out for the 2007-08 season. I’m so looking forward to seeing what he looks like. (He is also entered in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on 27th Dec.) Church Island’s OR is 132 so he needs to go up about 7lbs in the next 6 weeks or so to make sure of making the GN field. (Butlers Cabin also has to show some kind of form as he is currently 138, and might slip out of the GN.)
I’ll post a runner-by runner guide to the 3m1f race tomorrow. Don’t expect anything good – my special interest is H’cap sprinters.
In the Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase (3m7f) on Friday, I am interested in Hoo La Baloo, despite the presence of Garde Champetre and last season’s Cheltenham Foxhunters winner Drom Beag (apologies if spelt wrong) amongst the entries. He was one of two horses I nominated from "leftfield", who aren’t in Betfair’s market for the GN. Hoo La Baloo has just slipped from a rating of 150 (and 158 at the start of the year) to 142 (Topham????) . He has never been so low. The one time he ran off 143 in a H’cap, he won by a head, albeit that was over 2m. Can Hoo La Baloo improve from his debut over the Cheltenham Cross-Country, and not fade? (Can Sam Thomas stay on board?)
Ain’t PFN a marvellous trainer? Hoo La Baloo has mainly run righthanded, and he is now being given a second chance to practice the Canal Turn.
Although PFN doesn’t have a good GN record, what makes his entries in the GN interesting this time is that presumably Ruby will be riding one of them (, so long as Hedgehunter doesn’t make a 6th appearance).
Ciao.
2007 Over The Creek 6/1fav 8 10-4 DE Pipe OR132
231 in two nov chases at Chelt, and a £5k Beginners Chase, if you please
2006 57K Listed D’Argent 10/1 9 10-5 A King OR135
Off couse for 629 days
2005 28K Listed Royal Auclair 13/2 8 11-5(t) PF Nicholls OR155
5th in only previous run that season (2nd in this race previous season)
2004 29K ClassB Therealbandit 13/2 7 11-9 MC Pipe OR150
9th in a H’cap Hdle
2003 23K ClassB Kingscliff 4/7fav 6 11-2 RH Alner OR148
Won at Ascot last time
ABSENCES
2007 Over The Creek Mar05-Feb07
Chase rating was 8lbs lower than Hurdle rating BEFORE 2nd in G2 Nov Hdle2006 D’Argent Mar05-Dec06
Had been dropped 5lbs by H’capper in absence, and was 1lb higher than when second in Warwick G3 H’cap Chase2005 Royal Auclair None
2004 Therealbandit None
2003 Kingscliff None
PREVIOUS CHELTENHAM EXPERIENCE
2007 Over The Creek
26l 3rd in Novice Chase
10l 2nd in Beginners Chase
10th World Hurdle
2nd G2 Nov Hdle 3m (Festival meeting)
1st Nov H’cap Hdle2006 D’Argent
None2005 Royal Auclair
4th Gold Cup
3rd Pillar Chase
2nd in previous year’s race
3rd William Hill NH (Festival)
1st Cathcart etc2004 Therealbandit
9th H’cap Hdle
7th Gold Cup
1st in 2 Novice Chases
1st Listed H’cap Hurdle2003 Kingscliff
Had won that year’s Foxhunters’ ChaseCONCLUSION
The ideal profile we are looking for is a Pipe, King or Nicholls horse, less than 10yo, that either has good recent form, or is well treated by h’capper because of recent injury, with good Cheltenham form.Hey, but we knew that before we started!
I’ve mislead you – Butler’s Cabin isn’t in the field, I was just making the point that he is close to the cusp for making it into the GN.
That makes it easy for you though – just Character Building.
I’m planning to do my precis of the race after I’ve had a few hours kip. Meanwhile, here are the entries I’ve copied over from the RP website. I’m surprised that the breeding has come over, as it wasn’t on the page I was looking at. . . I’ll leave it in nevertheless for Kendal Cavalier.
NO. FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR MR
1 /3-9 STAR DE MOHAISON 7 11-12 P F Nicholls 65 155 – –
b g Beyssac (FR) — Belle De Mohaison (FR) (Suvero (FR))
2 11-P COMPLY OR DIE 9 11-11 D E Pipe 83 154 160 161
b g Old Vic — Madam Madcap (Furry Glen)
3 3-4P ALBERTAS RUN 7 11-9 Jonjo O´Neill 45 152 135 165
b g Accordion — Holly Grove Lass (Le Moss)
4 F-49 TURKO 6 11-9 P F Nicholls 65 152 151 165
gr g Turgeon (USA) — Cambaria (FR) (Nice Havrais (USA))
5 211/ TRABOLGAN 10 11-8 N J Henderson 80 151 – –
b g King´s Ride — Derrella (Derrylin)
6 4U-4 SIMON 9 11-5 J L Spearing 50 Andrew Thornton 148 160 166
b g Overbury (IRE) — Gaye Memory (Buckskin (FR))
7 P641 ALWAYS WAINING 7 11-4 P Bowen 20 T J O´Brien 147 159 160
b g Unfuwain (USA) — Glenarff (USA) (Irish River (FR))
8 -8714 FUNDAMENTALIST 10 11-3 N A Twiston-Davies 69 146 152 164
b g Supreme Leader — Run For Shelter (Strong Gale)
9 /54-1 PARSONS LEGACY 10 11-3 P J Hobbs 50 Richard Johnson 146 152 164
b g Leading Counsel (USA) — The Parson´s Girl (IRE) (The Parson)
10 12-3 LEADING ATTRACTION 7 11-0 P F Nicholls 65 143 158 163
b g Mister Mat (FR) — Cerise De Totes (FR) (Champ Libre (FR))
11 1-81 POSSOL 5 11-0 H D Daly 33 143 152 162
b g Robin Des Pres (FR) — Alberade (FR) (Un Desperado (FR))
12 09-2 MON MOME 8 10-11 Miss Venetia Williams 82 140 127 164
b g Passing Sale (FR) — Etoile Du Lion (FR) (New Target)
13 /3-1 CHARACTER BUILDING 8 10-9 J J Quinn 50 Dougie Costello 138 – –
gr g Accordion — Mrs Jones (IRE) (Roselier (FR))
14 18-P VERASI 7 10-9 G L Moore 78 138 132 157
b g Kahyasi — Fair Verona (USA) (Alleged (USA))
15 6-46 IRISH RAPTOR 9 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies 69 136 165 163
b/br g Zaffaran (USA) — Brownskin (Buckskin (FR))
16 00-6 HARMONY BRIG 9 10-6 N G Richards 60 Brian Harding 135 133 152
ch g Accordion — Bridges Daughter (IRE) (Montelimar (USA))
17 /11-F TRIGGER THE LIGHT 7 10-2 A King 64 131 133 158
ch g Double Trigger (IRE) — Lamper´s Light (Idiots Delight)
18 /P1- ONE SNIFF 9 10-2 N G Richards 60 D J Condon 131 118 163
b g Mister Lord (USA) — Deep Fern (Deep Run)
19 4/08 CHURCH ISLAND 9 10-1 Michael Hourigan 33 130 97 144
ch g Erins Isle — Just Possible (Kalaglow)
20 -6232 THE KING OF ANGELS 6 10-1 Jonjo O´Neill 45 130 136 165
b g Presenting — Vul Gale (Strong Gale)
21 313- ITSMYBOY 8 10-0 D E Pipe 83 129 – –
br g Frimaire — Hawkfield Lass (IRE) (The Parson)
22 /40-0 NOIR ET VERT 7 9-13 Ferdy Murphy 45 G Lee 128 95 153
b g Silver Rainbow — Danse Verte (FR) (Brezzo (FR))
Long Handicap: Noir Et Vert 9-13Furry Glen won the Irish 2000 guineas then, sorry!
No Pommeoath wasn’t. His dam does not cry out 4m 4f at all to me. The real stamina influence in his dam will have been diluted, it is so far back and that is the triple Grand National winning stallion Vulgan (five generations back). Vulgan was also the damsire of West Tip and could be found in Nil Desperandum, Numbersixvalverde, Royal Athlete etc but much more to the fore in those named.
The influence of Lord Gayle always tends to put me off a National horse as he sired the likes of Strong Gale, Lord Americo, Aristocracy and Arctic Lord (in Ponmeoath) who although have had a few winners over four miles find it very difficult to stay beyond that four mile barrier which they must of course do.
Lord Gayle did produce Callernish who in turn sired Addington Boy and Call It A Day but even both of these noticably conked out when holding every chance and got as far as they did because of the influence of Le Bavard and Vulgan respectively.
One of them is Irish though! In fact I have already mentioned a dark horse, though this is obviously not one of the ones I’m keeping close, and that is Brooklyn Brownie. I can see him grabbing a place and if you bet with someone who goes first five home he’ll definitely be one of mine.
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