Grand National 2009

Vulgan Town was one of my favourite horses in the 70s. (Toby Balding?) I remember he always used to be to the fore in the GN, in purplish colours with pink braces. He was more a 2 and a half mile horse wasn’t he? (I hate these keyboards, quarters and halves required for jumps talk.)

Looking up Vulgan Town I went onto a website that had the first page of Ivor Herbert’s ‘Red Rum’, a book that I bought from a second hand book shop years ago and had never got round to reading..it says that Red Rum had a parrot mouth [as did Dancing Brave]..I never realized that..also didnt realize what a beatifully written book this is…

Before I have a go at the horses in the middle of the handicap, can I ask a couple of questions about the weather and ground conditions, that hopefully someone can answer authoritatively. (You don’t have to be right, just authoritative.) (We don’t have mud in Dover, just chalk. )

I was originally thinking that the going was going to be verging on soft. At the moment the going is Gd to Sft with Soft patches. I don’t think any rain is scheduled. Frost is expected with sunny/cloudy skies and a wind. To what extent does frost firm the ground up? Of course it hardens the ground, but when it thaws, is the ground a different consistency or whatever? For instance, if there has been a frost and then it thaws, but the daytime temperature is only 4-6celsius, is the ground firmer than if it is a mild 12-14celsius day?

I am wondering if the ground can change in the next couple of days to being on the slow side of Good. Is this what is called "dead" ground? Which types of horses are suited by dead ground? Is dead ground Good ground that doesn’t suit Good ground horses?

I’ve changed my mind from Part 1, and now don’t think that Fundamentalist, Parsons Legacy and whoever else I mentioned will be any more inconvenienced by the ground than other horses.

LEADING ATTRACTION
Off course all of 2007.
Cheltenham form: None
Yet another Hemmings horse, I keep on coming across them this week (GN research). Has only run in 4 chases. 5lbs higher than when 1length 3rd in fast run race. Considering others that PFN could have entered in the race, this must have a major chance. I spent all morning at work worrying whether I had been unduly dismissive of Star De Mohaison, but I’m now content to let it stand. I was worried that I had been too influenced by the RP analysis stating that the fixed brush hurdle race is normally won by a chaser, and the fact that Therealbandit had run nondescriptly in a hurdle race before winning this race. On the other hand, when PFN mentioned Big Bucks’ in the same sentence as Denman and Kauto Star, he also had the opportunity to mention SdM, but didn’t. I suppose the thing to do is to read PFN’s teletext column on Channel 4 on Thursday evening. I think Turko has been given no favours by the h’capper over the past two years. However, he seems to be getting better at 3 miles and has the occasional race when he doesn’t hit a fence. I’m thinking that they may go slow enough that he doesn’t make a jumping error, and he might get involved in the fight for the minor places.

POSSOL
Cheltenham experience: 3rd Nov H’cap Chase (Jewson)
9lbs higher than when beating Mon Mome a neck. (Mon Mome is 7lbs higher.) He idled in front, so ought to confirm superiority with Mon Mome. Only 5yo, and progress expected during the season. (William Hill Trophy at the Festival?)

MON MOME
Out Mar07-Feb08. Not at his best last Spring, but the poor thing was running in the William Hill Trophy, Grand National and Scottish GN. Presumably has had a much better preparation this season.
Cheltenham experience: 4th & 6th Willam Hill Trophy (Festival)
2nd Kim Muir
2nd in 2006 Welsh GN, off 4lbs lower mark.
I can see and hear the cogs whirring in the heads of those with ante-post vouchers for Mon Mome in this year’s WGN:- 27 minus 12 equals 15 days until the Welsh GN. Its nice to see someone else suffer , my small bet on Barbers Shop for the Massey Ferguson on Saturday went up in smoke when he ran last Friday . Hopefully Venetia will think she can’t beat Possol, and will steer clear of this race. Alternatively if he does run, you can hope the WGN gets snowed off and moved to Newbury (a week later?) Piers Corbyn is predicting that parts of the country will be covered in snow, both at Christmas, and then again at New Year.

CHARACTER BUILDING
Off course: 1 race last season, when 3rd in Hennessy to Denman. Now racing off 2lbs higher mark.
Cheltenham experience: 3/4 length 2nd 2007 NH Chase to Butler’s Cabin.
In retrospect, that was a good field: Garde Champetre, Gungadu, Miko De Beauchene, and the still maiden Nine De Sivola being touted elsewhere for the Grand National .
Showed his wellbeing by winning a hurdle race earlier this season. Withdrawn on morning of Hennessy.

Well that completes the meat of the race.
MAJOR PLAYERS
Simon, Leading Attraction, Possol, Mon Mome, Character Building

MINOR PLAYERS
Parsons Legacy, Always Waining, Turko, Fundamentalist(?)

ALSO RANS
Star De Mohaison, Comply Or Die, Albertas Run,

IMPONDERABLES
Star De Mohaison, Trabolgan, Albertas Run, all of the MINOR PLAYERS

Time for a teabreak, and then it is onwards and downwards to the odds and sods at the bottom of the handicap.

(A number of the entries are also engaged in the 2.45 at Donny on Saturday: Simon, Fundamentalist, Leading Attraction, Possol, Verasi, Character Building, Harmony Brig, The King Of Angels & Noir Et Vert. )

VERASI
Cheltenham form: Nowhere, Royal & SunAlliance
Nowhere & 5th, Coral Cup (H’cap Hdle)
Midfield, Greatwood H’cap Hdle (G3)
Verasi PU in the Hennessy. Likes Soft & Heavy. Comes up the Sandown incline well, but not so effective at Cheltenham? Done it once and failed once in the Coral Cup.
His Chase rating is already as high as his hurdle rating, and there is no indication he will be a better chaser than a hurdler.

IRISH RAPTOR
Cheltenham form: Nowhere H’cap Chase, at end of season
1st 3m2 1/2 f H’cap Chase, Gd to Sft (now 7lbs higher)
UR William Hill Trophy (different jockey)
Giant horse, has completed Aintree fences 4 times.
7lbs higher than when came 2nd in Topham, so a good performance here will nudge him into the GN.
He was eased when beaten in the Becher, and in his seasonal debut over hurdles he was 7lbs oh, so good effort. Should be able to give a good account of himself. If he gets a 2lb rise, NTD will put him in cotton wool until the weights come out? The Aintree H’capper would hardly give him a lower GN rating than OR rating after last season’s 2nd in Topham.
If he doesn’t perform on Friday, he presumably will be back at Cheltenham on New Years Day for the race he won last season.

HARMONY BRIG
Cheltenham form: 6th in Parsons Legacy’s race
Nowhere, New Year Chase, 2m5f
6th H’cap Chase, 2m4 1/2 f
Has run 3m+ three times only, all in last 4 races.
Only 3lbs higher than when won Listed Rehearsal H’cap Chase at N’cle
Harding riding this one instead of One Sniff.
If a surprise was to win this at 33/1, I think this would be the one. (Win last season was on second appearance of season.)

TRIGGER THE LIGHT
No Cheltenham experience
Alan King’s sole entry. Raced lightly last season as had sore shins. (Has never run on Good ground.) Fell when 4th and held, when Leading Attraction came 3rd at Wincanton last time. Will he get around? You are betting on promise and background, rather than what has been achieved. He’s still a danger though.

ONE SNIFF
Very, very interesting horse. Although a 9yo, he has only had 2 ptp (won 1), 2 hdles (won 1) and 3 chases (won 2). Here is his story.
His half-brother Coq Hardi Affair won 6 races, and his half-sister Mossy Fern won 8.
On his PtP debut, he was beaten 25l by Slim Pickings. He won his second by 10l.
Sold for 80,000 gns at Brightwells 14 Apr 04.
Could possibly be forgiven his defeat on his hurdling debut, as he came 17l second to Denman, who was 1/12 fav after already winning the Challow Hdle.
After he won his first appearance in a Nov Chase, he missed all of 2007. As a consequence, when he came back, he had to go straight into H’cap chases. He won the second of these, last time out.
When he won his Nov Chase, T Dobbin said the undulating track at Hexham didn’t suit him.
Harding is down to be on Harmony Brig, so this race is all about gaining experience?
There’s races to be won with this lad. I’m thinking about the valuable staying h’cap chases held at Doncaster, Uttoxeter & Newcastle Jan-March.

CHURCH ISLAND
Missed 2007-08 season
Cheltenham form: Down the field in the whip taking Amateurs’ race last time
Nowhere, this race 2 years ago.
1st, Nov Chase, 3m, Gd to Sft (RPR146)
Is now 5lbs lower than when 4 3/4 length 4th to Butler’s Cabin in 2007 Irish GN.
Inconsistent, even as a novice.
He needs to go up 7lbs or so to make it into the GN field. He is also entered in the Paddy Power Chase, Leopardstown 27th Dec.
I’ve discovered, since I started betting again a few weeks ago, that I can’t resist a big price . I’ve got £2 at 250 for the GN ( or

THE KING OF ANGELS
Cheltenham form: 2 1/4 length 2nd to Parsons Legacy
PU NH Chase
Midfield, Nov H’cap Hdle, 3m
"He needs a sound surface". JJO’N 08/09/07

Getting a bit punch drunk, just two more to go.

ITSMYBOY
Absent Oct05-Dec06, and since Nov07
Cheltenham form: Distant 3rd to Albertas Run in a Nov Chase
1st H’cap Hdle
Close 7th in NH flat race
4lbs higher than winning H’cap Chase Bangor Aug07, but 4lbs lower than level raised to.
tt and cheekpieces.
Mainly run on Good, disappointed twice on Gd to Sft, but won a Nov Hdle on Heavy.
Stable won this race last year.

NOIR ET VERT
Missing Apr07-Mar08
Cheltenham form: Out with the washing, Parsons Legacy’s race
Distant 4th, Kin Muir (RPR125)
Only 2lbs higher than when sh hd 2nd in 3m1f H’cap Chase, Good, Punchestown Festival.

I suppose its best to wait until the declarations before making sense of this lot. There was more interest lower down the handicap than I was expecting.

Oh, I forgot – I’ll also be interested in seeing how Turko goes in first time blinkers – wouldn’t dare back him though (ever?)

It looks at the moment as the cross-country race might be run on Saturday morning in pyjamas.

Nick Mordin pointed out that before Dix Villez last month, the previous 12 cross-country races held at Cheltenham had gone to a horse who had already won a cross-country race somewhere.

I don’t think we should take too much notice of that statistic – it may be a generational thing, and that with the retirement of Spotthedifference, it gives other horses an opportunity to step up to the plate.

Its difficult to knock Philson Run isn’t it? Aintree experience, started off in a Hunter Chase, never run over hurdles, won a PtP in Ireland. Has even been dropped 8lbs for no apparent reason. Are cross-country races handicapped separately from other chases????

And for once, his age may not be a problem, as they go at a slower pace.

Just for something to do this evening, I’ll look up which horses in the field have previously won a cross-country race.

I’ve got Garde Champetre down as one of the bets of the meeting.

Bolger says this is his best entrant at the meeting and considering he has 4 entrants in this you’d expect a big run from GC is Bolgers’ comments are spot on.

Only beaten by Dix Villez last time. 3/1 is a bargain price for a horse with proven C&D form.

One that I’d like to take on somewhat foolishly during tomorrows meeting is Ballyfitz and I want to be taking him on with What A Friend. WAF beat Pancake last time out by a considerable margin (Pancake went on to be defeated narrowly by a horse I really rate, Wichita Lineman) and I just feel that there may be a chink in Ballyfitz’s armour about to appear.

This looks like a stiffer test than his last Cheltenham win at the PPGold Cup meeting. He only goes up 2lbs for that win….but what did he exactly beat in Big Fella Thanks?

What A Friend, to me, is a lot better than Big Fella Thanks and I feel Sam can get his first winner of the meeting here.

My picks for tomorrow..

12.10 What A Friend
1.20 Garde Champetre
1.55 Character Building
3.05 Chantaco (Bit of loyalty sticking by this one really..)

1:55 Cheltenham

I think Mon Mome is over priced here. I make him a 9/2 chance and is available at much bigger.

Mark

I’m probably well wide of the mark with this one but Gleann An Sagart caught me eye in the 3:05. His recent form is absolutely nothing to write home about but I do remember Dusty Sheehy regarding him as one of his best young horses a few years ago. He had bits of decent form as a bumper horse and as a novice and hopefully the change of trainer will help him to recapture his best form. Any market support would make him a decent e/w proposition at a big price.