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Actually at 40-1 Irish Raptor interests me at the minute, especially with the support hes getting in the becher market.
However, the influence you want to steer clear of in a Grand National is STRONG GALE and on this you must trust me … you can leave the likes of … Denman well alone for Aintree.
I am a complete novice as regards pedrigrees – where is the Strong Gale line in Denman
My apologies not sure why I wrote Denman. In actual fact Denman’s dam has Escart in her line (L’escargot) and David Jack (Zongalero 2nd in ’79 and Gold Cup winner Davy Lad) and David Jack can also be found in Old Benny’s dam so Denman would actually have no problems staying.
Sorry, GWilson77 – I hadn’t realised you had backed him on the strength of a make-believe scenario.
In that case, well done – you have every chance.
LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I agree about the Strong Gale comments. Plenty of his have gone off at very short prices but I am right in thinking 3m5f is the furthest he’s ever had one of his win over?
No, Risk Of Thunder won the La Touche Cup about four million times and if my memory and spelling serve me correctly Ceanannas Mor won over four miles at Cheltenham but what I would say about the latter is that Ceanannas Mor won a race with five other non staying or regressive horses. Ad Hoc and Stormtracker finished runners up over four miles but never had the stamina to get their heads in front. I will be happy to lay those I mentioned come April especially Hear The Echo even if he does win on Sunday.
Brooklyn Brownie: By Presenting out of a Lafontaine mare. Lafontaine sired 2000 winner Papillon and the unlucky 200/1 outsider Merry People who came down when holding every chance in 1999. Both the influence of Presenting and Lafontaine would suggest that Brooklyn Brownie would be better served by a sound surface. His dam is very stoutly bred with the great Deep Run in there and Prefairy who sired some stayers including placed National horse, Monanore. No forlorn hope.
Oulart: By Sabrehill out of an Ardross mare. The fact that Oulart can jump the fences and has finished placed in an Irish National bode well. A sound surface would be ideal. His damsire, Ardross, has produced a number of four mile winners, most notably Young Kenny, and Oulart is also related to Kingsmark, 4th in the 2002 National. Needs to rediscover his 2006 Irish National form.
Ballistraw: Out of Carroll House out of an Over The River mare. His mare is very closely related to Scottish National winner and Grand National third, Moorcroft Boy. Was 10th in the 2008 Irish National off a mark of 147. Is coming down in the handicap enough to make him interesting and would most likely have less than eleven stone to carry. Interesting.
Mon Mome and Darkness impressed me as long range bets for teh National yesterday.
Today i was on Southern Vic ante-post for the Becher and he was going alright when being bumped and unseating at the Canal Turn – not seen him quoted by any bookies but 50/1 or so and he’d be worth a bet.
Thanks for the reply Moehat.
I thought that might be the case as he is not listed in some bookmakers prices.
Its a shame though as the way he finished in the Scottish National suggests he would relish the marathon trip at Aintree. Quite likely he would have a nice racing weight also.
Hi
After reading everyone else’s comments I realised that I wasn’t going to get an easy winner, and the answer was to put some graft in.
I’ve entered all 119 horses in Betfair’s ante-post market into a spreadsheet, together with all the runners in the 2008 Becher, Hennessy, Midlands GN, Grand National, Irish GN, Whitbread, Scottish GN, Welsh National entries, plus horses rated 140+ over 3m+ on the BHA website.
So far, I have only collated the information for the Betfair horses. Being impatient, I dove into these. Threw out everything that hadn’t won a chase over 25+f, everything that hasn’t run yet this season, everything not rated 135-150, everything not aged 8-10 next year, everything that hasn’t run between 10-20 chases – I even threw out those who had Strong Gale as a Damsire. I then threw out Garde Champetre because Bolger said it would have the same campaign as last season. I was left with just Mon Mome.
I then realised that what I should do first is analyse the trends. I’ve used the past 15 runnings, upto the void race.
First of all, as an aside, which six jockeys would people recommend for the National? It does seem to be won by jockeys who have a reputation for being sympathetic to their horse.
The 2009 National winner has probably run within the past 3 weeks, without winning. (Only Monty’s Pass bucks this trend in the past 13 runnings – he had last run on Oct 13, and had had a busy summer, winning the Kerry National in September.) Furthermore, he is likely to have run at least twice this season: only Silver Birch, who had run in just one Point-to-Point, bucks this trend in the past 13 seasons.
I was astonished to find how few chases some National winners had run in their lifetime up to Dec 7th in their GN winning season:- Lord Gyllene 6 (in Britain), Miinnehoma 7, Numbersixvalverde 8, Red Marauder 9, Silver Birch and Hedgehunter 10, Bindaree 11, Comply or Die 12, and Bobbyjo and Royal Athlete 14.
Despite the few runs, there is just one 8yo winner (Bindaree), and then five 9yos, 5 10yos, 2 11yos and 2 12yos.
It is 6/4 that the GN winner is a crock: Comply Or Die missed the 2006-07 season: Silver Birch missed 2005; Numbersixvalverde missed Feb03-Feb04; Red Marauder missed 1999 and had one race between Oct94 and Oct 98; Royal Athlete missed 1994, 1991 and most of 1992; Miinnehoma missed the 90-91 season, Feb93-Mar94, and never ran May-Nov.
This is good news for anyone fancying Trabolgan, though if he doesn’t make it for the old SGB chase at Ascot in a fortnight, I’d forget it; it seems that although a horse might be a crock, or ex-crock, it needs a couple of races in the autumn to add to the conditioning required for the GN.
12 of the 15 had already by now won a chase of at least 25f. Monty’s Pass and Red Marauder had won over 24f. Monty’s Pass GN was on Good ground, and Red Marauder didn’t need to stay, he just needed to stay upright. Lord Gyllene had yet to win in Britain (so there’s still hope for Nine de Sivola, ha-ha).
The trend for horses to be in the handicap proper, but to carry no more than 11 stone, still continues from the previous couple of decades. Exceptions are Hedgehunter 11-1 and Bobbyjo 14lbs(oh). Lord Gyllene carried 10st, but I don’t know whether he was out of the handicap.
Concomitant with the previous trend, horses have come from a narrow band of handicap ratings – the last 9 winners were rated 134-142 at this time of year, and 136-144 for the race. Bobbyjo, although rated 126 at the moment, had won the previous season’s Irish GN, and Lord Gyllene (129) had just started going. The three earlest winners, Miinnehoma, Royal Athlete and Rough Quest were all above these bands, but only carried between 10-6 and 10-8 in the race.
I was trying to get a trend that British winners either had form over the National obstacles, or had achieved a high Racing Post Rating in a chase at Cheltenham, but I think I was being a bit contrived, in support of Joe Lively. Counting Silver Birch as British, and excluding Lord Gyllene as Kiwi, all the British winners had achieved a RPF at Cheltenham of 145+, except for Amberleigh House (bundles of Aintree experience) and Bindaree (a distant 4th in the Topham). (Silver Birch didn’t attain his Cheltenham RPR until the race before Aintree.)
In terms of the National fences, it is probably best to have been hampered or brought down, fallen at Becher’s, or been placed in the Topham, rather than placed in the National. Siver Birch had fallen when hampered at Becher’s, but had also won the Becher Chase; Hedgehunter had fallen when 3rd, at the last fence; Amberleigh House had more experience than I care to write, but he too had been brought down in a GN; Monty’s Pass and Bindaree were 2nd & 4th in the Topham; Red Marauder had fallen at Becher’s; and Mr Frisk had fallen at the 4th last when close up in the Topham (is that Valentine’s Brook? It ain’t marked on the map on the Racing Post website.)
Numbersixvalverde and Bobbyjo had won the previous Irish National, and Papillon had been 4th, 2nd and 10th in it.
A case might be made for horses having come in the first half-dozen or so in a Hennessy, but I haven’t investigated that, and have written enough.
I’ll get back to you after I finished inputting the remainder of the 240 or so horses for this year into the spreadsheet. Next weekend?
Bye
11 year olds seem to be completely out of it and not sure about cheekpieces because not all that many horses wore them until recently….
11 year olds seem to be completely out of it and not sure about cheekpieces because not all that many horses wore them until recently….
An 11yo will probably require Gd to Soft or softer ground to slow the others up? (Also help if it has been injured at some time, so that there aren’t so many miles on the clock.)
Cheekpieces are for horses that don’t like to feel crowded? Don’t know how they are going to avoid that at the Canal Turn and Chair. I wouldn’t be opposed to them.
A couple of winners have worn blinkers, haven’t they? (I’ll check.) I’ve always thought that blinkers shouldn’t be allowed in the GN, ever since Attitude Adjuster killed Dark Ivy at Bechers by taking his ground.
in my memory recently only Earth Summit and Comply or Die have worn blinkers..and then I have to go back to L’Escargot..12 year olds don’t seem to have too bad a record, but the age of the winner seems to have come down slightly over the past 10 years; prior to that 11 and 12 year olds have a better record [2 years ago I sat down and wrote out the winning ages going back 30 years..I really aught to get a life!].We always go to our racing club National preview and a lot of old winning jockeys come along and no one ever tips the winner, but Eddie the Shoe in the Observer is good..however, he did tip D’Argent and Ardaghey last year…however Comply or Die was in his list of 4.the year before he tipped 3/4 and in Montys Pass’s year tipped him a week before the race..also Bindaree.
You have Comply Or Die, Earth Summit, L’Escargot and then using the very scientific method of looking over all the matchbox Grand National photo’s you go back to the WWI times to find the previous winner.
Mike Torpey in the Echo wrote you should rule horses in blinkers out as "in a race with 40 runners it helps to see where you’re going"
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