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Keen to see how Gungadu and Southern Vic do this weekend in the Becher (both supposed to be running in it).
Gungadu doesn’t seem to stay 4m (see NH Chase) but they spend half the race hacking – generally from about the Canal Turn to second Bechers.
Still think its a bit early to be looking at the National, had Comply or Die for example even run this time last year and if so he certainly wouldn’t have looked a National prospect which he first did after his Haydock run.
Great to see that Hot Weld is nearing a return, ignore all efforts on non good ground as Hot Weld loves fast ground.
Butlers Cabin & Hot Weld are my 2 to follow.
Joe Lively is the one here for me lads. Was there the other day and he ran a blinder. Jumps for fun and has stamina. Dix Villez could be another verry dark horse.
Butlers Cabin is interesting as he is bound to be trained for the race, running in races / conditions he does not have much chance of winning. That way his handicap mark won’t go up, but trying to win of course. A lot will depend on Jonjo’s form at the time.
Mr Pointment did not appear to stay in the Grand National but had a far from ideal lead up to the race. Jumps very well and has course form. Can’t see another suitable race for him at that time of year so would think he’d run. Just hope they can relax him a bit more.
Mr Strachan is a horse who has the right attitude, whether he’d stay or not, have to ask Kendal.
Just wish Halcon Genelardais had different owners as he’d be the ideal horse for the race. But he won’t run.
A lot will of course depend on the weights so will not be betting at this stage.
Mark
Mark
Value Is EverythingButlers Cabin and Hear the echo, the connection would be that they are both Irish National winners, however I just like both horses. Thought I was in with such a chance on Butlers cabin last year before his fall, as he was cruising.
I don’t get it Gwilson77.
Snowy Monring couldn’t win the race last year off a mark of 145 and officially about 10lbs well-in, and he’s now rated 17lbs higher – I can’t see that he has any chance in the National next year, to be honest.
Er…..!!!
and Mr mullins agrees with you also grass
I honestly believe that Comply or Die will win it again, he reminds me of headgehunter in that he jumps for fun stays all day, i know he has top weight (if denman doesnt run
) but he has proved before he can carry top weight and win albiet a "lesser" handicap, Chelsea Harbour will also be the "right" age of 9 come April and i fancy a big runThe weights aren’t out yet Batman – I’d suggest that there are a number of horses who will make sure that Comply Or Die doesn’t carry topweight in the big one.
Horses that start winning well at this time of year will invariably handicap themselves out of it. As impressive as Joe Lively was at weekend, he will get at least another 14 plus lbs which while not necessarily stopping him winning again, will not help him. Apart from Hedgehunter who had ran well there before and steadily climbed the weights over the previous couple of years to winning it, most horses that win tend to be unexposed types who tend to show their best form after the weights have been announced. Also if there is a race which in recent years has been a good guide then its the previous year’s Irish National.
I know that Silver Birch is supposed to be back in training this year but I wondered if Gordon Elliott had anything else in training that may be aimed at the National?
A stat that most people overlook is pedigree. The French connection is banded about every year but although Roselier stood at Knockhouse Stud in Ireland he was technically a French horse and produced Royal Athlete and Bindaree as well as three Welsh and Scottish National winners and an Irish National winner as well as four Borders Nationals, a Midlands, an Eider and so on, so the French connection I have always thought a bit of a red herring.
However, the influence you want to steer clear of in a Grand National is STRONG GALE and on this you must trust me. Even when he had four in the 1996 renewal, when only 27 went to post, even then he couldn’t produce a placed horse. For some reason they don’t get home over 4m 4f and countless have tried and with the dams side "generally" more of a staying influence you can leave the likes of Joe Lively, Idle Talk, Glasker Mill, Southern Vic, Hear The Echo and Denman well alone for Aintree.
I thought some may have gone for Over The Creek and/or Old Benny.
What happened to Over the Creek? he was in my list of horses to back ante post but never ran..
However, the influence you want to steer clear of in a Grand National is STRONG GALE and on this you must trust me … you can leave the likes of … Denman well alone for Aintree.
I am a complete novice as regards pedrigrees – where is the Strong Gale line in Denman
) but he has proved before he can carry top weight and win albiet a "lesser" handicap, Chelsea Harbour will also be the "right" age of 9 come April and i fancy a big run
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