November 17, 2008 at 23:06 #9356
So far here is mine,
Nine De Sivola has to be on anyone’s shortlist. It has obvious claims on previous form and his well-being looked assured at Carlisle when for all intents and purposes running up to its current mark of 134 after a long layoff. He therefore, on first impressions this season, retains all his ability. His handicap mark will need to improve 5-6lbs to get in a National but I fully expect Nine to do that before February when the weights are published. His French sire, Video Rock, has previously produced a Welsh National winner in the guise of Edmond and on his damside is that great staying influence, Devon, sire of Denel, Le Bavard (sire of 2 Irish National winners and damsire of Numbersixvalverde) Peacock (sire of a Scottish National winner) Quart De Vin (sire of Ferdy’s Irish National winner Granit D‘estruval). Nine also goes on a variety of surfaces, perhaps with a slight preference for a sounder surface, and all things considered I hope Aintree is the long term aim and I’m on already. He may be a bit small but then so was Miinnehoma and Comply Or Die isn’t the largest.
Would like to hear your input (on your fancies, not on why Nine can’t win because that’s a bit negative)November 17, 2008 at 23:16 #190321
Agreed marble. Very eyecatching. Always staying on isn’t he? I just hope that once and for all he gets round so the question of whether he stays extreme distances can be answered.November 17, 2008 at 23:17 #190322
Have just been watching old Nationals on a website that shall remain nameless and have just seen Golden Miller win in record time…..did a bit of pricing up the other day and thought about ante posts on Slim Pickings [at 33/1 he’s sure to be placed again]; Character Building [was 25/1 but probably shorter now]; Hear the Echo [25/1] and Mon Mome [50/1].November 18, 2008 at 00:57 #190331
Not that I am aware. Certainly not in recent history. But trends are there to be bucked.November 18, 2008 at 01:10 #190332
I thought that horses that fell or unseated were more likely to win the following year rather than placed horses…although to unseat twice seems more than just bad luck.November 18, 2008 at 01:34 #190337
I am the 1st to say i thought Snowy Morning was a poor jumper, but he proved me wrong in last seasons Grand National and took to Aintree like a duck to water, I have backed him Ante-post at 25/1 and am happy to stick with him!November 18, 2008 at 01:39 #190338
I don’t get it Gwilson77.
Snowy Monring couldn’t win the race last year off a mark of 145 and officially about 10lbs well-in, and he’s now rated 17lbs higher – I can’t see that he has any chance in the National next year, to be honest.
Er…..!!!November 18, 2008 at 01:56 #190342
I am of the opinion that Snowy is going to be one of those horses that excels at Aintree for the next few years hopefully! What i saw in last seasons Grand National was a raw recruit to Aintree and with another year under his belt will be only 9yo for next years renewal! He still has the scope for further improvement 11-3 would be an ideal weight!November 18, 2008 at 01:57 #190343
Didn’t Ferdy Murphy say he might enter Nine de Sivola in the Pardubicka next year? he also said he still qualifies for the Sun Alliance…just a bit concerned that having a year off through injury means he may not have enough experience for Aintree next year [but if Ferdy thinks he can jump the Taxis then Bechers wouldn’t bother him much]November 18, 2008 at 02:12 #190344
I am of the opinion that Snowy is going to be one of those horses that excels at Aintree for the next few years hopefully! What i saw in last seasons Grand National was a raw recruit to Aintree and with another year under his belt will be only 9yo for next years renewal! He still has the scope for further improvement 11-3 would be an ideal weight!
Given his BHA rating is already 162, you will need to find something running off 171 if Snowy Morning is going to get 11-3. That doesn’t sound too likely, and I’d expect him to have to cart top-weight in the National myself. I also can’t have it that he is going to find further improvement, after twelve starts in steeplechases, though he’ll need to if he is to have any chance at Aintree, imo.
I have backed Surface To Air myself. He jumps, he stays and his current mark of 147 should see him comfortably into the race.November 18, 2008 at 02:29 #190346
Imagine if the force that could carry 11-12 with a rating of 182 should appear in the line up! Snowy would be carrying 10-6 and would have to make up the 10 length he was beaten at levels in the Sun Alliance ch! That would be interesting!November 18, 2008 at 02:45 #190348
Sorry, GWilson77 – I hadn’t realised you had backed him on the strength of a make-believe scenario.
In that case, well done – you have every chance.November 18, 2008 at 02:58 #190353
If Denman gets an entry great! even if Exotic Dancer gets an entry Snowy will avoid the dreaded top weight! having said that Top weights have run well in many Nationals so i am expecting a run for my money! Its a race that you have done well in if your selection gives you a run for your money!November 18, 2008 at 03:24 #190362vikingflagshipMember
- Total Posts 852
two, the one i always follow – simon
and snowy morning
slim picking e/w
though i’ll wait and see the weight in feb
vfNovember 18, 2008 at 03:33 #190365Irish StampMember
- Total Posts 3181
1. Form over the fences
2. Won at 3m+
3. Not run in the National before (if it has it won).
5. Not a novice
Hope these help – technically Nine De Sivola is still a novice and I won’t be backing any of the beaten horses from last year
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.