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Grand National 2009

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 674 total)
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  • #9356
    KendalCavalier
    Member
    • Total Posts 337

    So far here is mine,

    Nine De Sivola has to be on anyone’s shortlist. It has obvious claims on previous form and his well-being looked assured at Carlisle when for all intents and purposes running up to its current mark of 134 after a long layoff. He therefore, on first impressions this season, retains all his ability. His handicap mark will need to improve 5-6lbs to get in a National but I fully expect Nine to do that before February when the weights are published. His French sire, Video Rock, has previously produced a Welsh National winner in the guise of Edmond and on his damside is that great staying influence, Devon, sire of Denel, Le Bavard (sire of 2 Irish National winners and damsire of Numbersixvalverde) Peacock (sire of a Scottish National winner) Quart De Vin (sire of Ferdy’s Irish National winner Granit D‘estruval). Nine also goes on a variety of surfaces, perhaps with a slight preference for a sounder surface, and all things considered I hope Aintree is the long term aim and I’m on already. He may be a bit small but then so was Miinnehoma and Comply Or Die isn’t the largest.

    Would like to hear your input (on your fancies, not on why Nine can’t win because that’s a bit negative)

    #190321
    KendalCavalier
    Member
    • Total Posts 337

    Agreed marble. Very eyecatching. Always staying on isn’t he? I just hope that once and for all he gets round so the question of whether he stays extreme distances can be answered.

    #190322
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7856

    Have just been watching old Nationals on a website that shall remain nameless and have just seen Golden Miller win in record time…..did a bit of pricing up the other day and thought about ante posts on Slim Pickings [at 33/1 he’s sure to be placed again]; Character Building [was 25/1 but probably shorter now]; Hear the Echo [25/1] and Mon Mome [50/1].

    #190331
    KendalCavalier
    Member
    • Total Posts 337

    Not that I am aware. Certainly not in recent history. But trends are there to be bucked.

    #190332
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7856

    I thought that horses that fell or unseated were more likely to win the following year rather than placed horses…although to unseat twice seems more than just bad luck.

    #190337
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8704

    I am the 1st to say i thought Snowy Morning was a poor jumper, but he proved me wrong in last seasons Grand National and took to Aintree like a duck to water, I have backed him Ante-post at 25/1 and am happy to stick with him!

    #190338
    Grasshopper
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2316

    I don’t get it Gwilson77.

    Snowy Monring couldn’t win the race last year off a mark of 145 and officially about 10lbs well-in, and he’s now rated 17lbs higher – I can’t see that he has any chance in the National next year, to be honest.

    Er…..!!!

    #190342
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8704

    Grasshopper,
    I am of the opinion that Snowy is going to be one of those horses that excels at Aintree for the next few years hopefully! What i saw in last seasons Grand National was a raw recruit to Aintree and with another year under his belt will be only 9yo for next years renewal! He still has the scope for further improvement 11-3 would be an ideal weight!

    #190343
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7856

    Didn’t Ferdy Murphy say he might enter Nine de Sivola in the Pardubicka next year? he also said he still qualifies for the Sun Alliance…just a bit concerned that having a year off through injury means he may not have enough experience for Aintree next year [but if Ferdy thinks he can jump the Taxis then Bechers wouldn’t bother him much]

    #190344
    Grasshopper
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2316

    Grasshopper,
    I am of the opinion that Snowy is going to be one of those horses that excels at Aintree for the next few years hopefully! What i saw in last seasons Grand National was a raw recruit to Aintree and with another year under his belt will be only 9yo for next years renewal! He still has the scope for further improvement 11-3 would be an ideal weight!

    Given his BHA rating is already 162, you will need to find something running off 171 if Snowy Morning is going to get 11-3. That doesn’t sound too likely, and I’d expect him to have to cart top-weight in the National myself. I also can’t have it that he is going to find further improvement, after twelve starts in steeplechases, though he’ll need to if he is to have any chance at Aintree, imo.

    I have backed Surface To Air myself. He jumps, he stays and his current mark of 147 should see him comfortably into the race.

    #190346
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8704

    Aaah Grasshopper,
    Imagine if the force that could carry 11-12 with a rating of 182 should appear in the line up! Snowy would be carrying 10-6 and would have to make up the 10 length he was beaten at levels in the Sun Alliance ch! That would be interesting!

    #190348
    Grasshopper
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2316

    Sorry, GWilson77 – I hadn’t realised you had backed him on the strength of a make-believe scenario.

    In that case, well done – you have every chance. :mrgreen:

    #190353
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8704

    If Denman gets an entry great! even if Exotic Dancer gets an entry Snowy will avoid the dreaded top weight! having said that Top weights have run well in many Nationals so i am expecting a run for my money! Its a race that you have done well in if your selection gives you a run for your money!

    #190362
    vikingflagship
    Member
    • Total Posts 852

    two, the one i always follow – simon
    and snowy morning

    slim picking e/w

    though i’ll wait and see the weight in feb

    vf

    #190365
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Major States/Trends.

    1. Form over the fences
    2. Won at 3m+
    3. Not run in the National before (if it has it won).
    4. 8-10yo
    5. Not a novice

    Hope these help – technically Nine De Sivola is still a novice and I won’t be backing any of the beaten horses from last year

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