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So with From Dawn to Dusk being withdrawn and Giles Cross, Le Beau Bai, Royal Rosa and One Cool Cookie not having much of a chance of getting in with the weights i am down to 11…
Notre Pere
Carruthers
Deep Purple
Midnight Chase
Neptune Collonges
Roll Along
Vic Venturi
Hello Bud
Chief Dan George
Saddlers Storm
TaranisBolds still getting my definite attention on the day if they go.
Really looking forward to that Trial at Haydock. If Carruthers runs a big race i can’t see him being any more than 14/1 on National day if he goes.
Yeah, can’t really argue with the weights given to them, especially State of Play, had a coupla quid e/w on it. He’s been a good horse to me in the past in the National, so had to be on him again.
Took a few quid on King Fontaine @ 140’s to 230’s for this, I think he could be thrown in potentially, and this hasn’t gone unnoticed with the trainer. Hemmings would also, I hope, not need to much encouragement to run him.
Wouldn’t worry too much if he didn’t win today, but I hope he runs well enough to stay on track for this.
Fair along ran a good trial yesterday, stayed on strongly and was infront after the post, the first 2 were out on there feet and he look as fresh as paint unsaddling. Bit small for the national but really tries over fences and is quite clever when he gets one wrong
I rather like Le Beau Bai… would like to see him take his chance.. reserve maybe?
Don’t push it’s run over hurdles has shown he shouldn’t write him off just yet.
Missed the National trial but heard about Silver by Nature’s win. Owner doesn’t want him to run at aintree??? Strange. The horse has had an ideal prep and would be a real contender.
Can’t see Le Beau Bai getting in, and Ballyfitz almost certainly won’t, mores the pity. Could make a fortune in ew money on that one [didn’t back him today, alas]. Silver by Nature won’t get such a good weight in the National again. Where is Kendal Cavalier this year, because I’m not sure about Silver by Nature’s pedigree [Strong Gale floating about on the damside]?
Handy/Moe…..I wouldn’t give up on Le Beau Bai yet, it’s right on the borderline, but on previous years, it might just sneak in.
Sadly, Ballyfitz looks to have no chance, but it has happened in the past from there, but I’d doubt it this year. Shame.
Trainer and one half of the owners are going to push for Silver By Natures entry to this. He should get an entry in the end, hopefully. Didn’t State of Play’s owner need convincing 2 years ago?
Right, I’m not going to fart around anymore – I’ve decided on my four e/w bets on the national.
Well, I say that, but if any of the four drop out, I’ll have to pick replacements…hopefully that won’t be the case.
In alphabetical order…
Oscar Time – Backed this as soon as the weights came out. He ran beautifully to win the Paddy Power at Leopardtown back in December ’09, and ran a great race to come second in the Irish National last year in ground he probably may not have enjoyed so much. More to the point, he’s been given 10st9, which is a lovely weight. 25s looks very good indeed right now.
State Of Play – Another one I backed as soon as the weights came out. Are you seriously telling me that a former Hennessy winner, who’s placed in the last two Nationals, and who’s got the Mystical, Magical 10st6 isn’t worth an e/w bet at 33s? No, of course you aren’t.
Notre Pere – This is where Mr Smith started to go a little bit strange. Former Welsh National winner and former Punchestown Gold Cup winner carrying less than 11st? Oooh, I’ll have some of that.
Comply Or Die – I’ve backed the Codster in every national I’ve bet on. He’s not let me down, either, with a win and a second. He’s got a nice 10st8 which, if the weights don’t change (and, seeing as I can’t see how Don’t Push It isn’t going to get a run, I doubt they will), he’ll be on 1lb less than he did when he won in ’08, it’s an e/w must. Well, OK, it’s an e/w ‘It’s the National, how can I not back Comply Or Die’, but you get the idea. Plus, I’ve got on him before Saturday when I can see him running a big race in the Eider. You heard it here first.
Of course, the reserves are worth a mention, and they are – Don’t Push It, Synchronised, Calgary Bay and Can’t Buy Time.
If only I’moncloudnine were running *sigh*
What do you think?
FLD
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Taking inspiration from fivelongdays I have decided to try and narrow down my fancies for the national and put key to keypad and get my list sorted.
Three selections take my fancy:
Chief Dan George
Hello Bud
Big Fella Thanks
Silver by NatureManaged to get the green light on Silver by Nature alredy after the trial on Saturday so won’t be investing any more on the hag, especially with the participation doubts.
The Midnight Club looked decent there in the Bobby Jo, however
10/1 in places looks far too short at this early stage.Certainly missing Black Apalchi not being in the betting!
JoP66
Don’t want to sound like Mr Negativity, but I’d say that Hello Bud might be too old – now 13-year-old has won it since the 1920s.
Regarding the Big Fella, I backed him e/w for the last two nationals and both times he faded away having looked in contention with not far to go. Personally – and this is just my opinion – I think he doesn’t quite have the stamina. Were he mine, I would send him to either the Scottish or Irish Nationals, where he could clean up.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
My first ever Ante-Post bet was Don’t Push It last year (25/1), and I’m hoping that lightning strikes twice this year as well (backed at both 20/1 and 16/1). Bucked one of the most prevalent of trends last year winning off a weight of 11st5, so this year’s weight of 11st10 doesn’t really bother me. Indeed, both Jonjo O’Neill and JP McManus have gone on record saying carrying a lot of weight doesn’t really bother this horse, it’s just whether he is in the mood or not. I think that after a very careful and light campaign he will be primed for another big run.
My other bet will be State of Play – this has been his target for some time (probably a two to three year campaign to conquer this) and races off a very low weight; just whether he can remain in contention on the final mile or so as he was very much detached last year and plugged on for a respectable 3rd.
For those who know me (which is probably just my dad) i am a bit of a stats man. And although State of Play is tempting at such a weight; i simply can’t have him. Because Hennessy winners don’t win Nationals. We have yet o have a Hennessy winner go on to win the National, but that’s not to say it’s a bad race to look at when looking for a National winner… it’s a great race in fact to find the National winner, but don’t look at who is first past the post; look at the placers. I mean lets look at this…
1985 5th – Rhyme N Reason
1986 3rd – Maori Venture
1988 3rd – Mr Frisk
1989 3rd – Mr Frisk
1991 2nd – Party Politics
1995 2nd – Rough Quest
1995 5th – Earth Summit
2000 5th – Red Marauder
2001 5th – Bindaree
2003 4th – Hedgehunter
2005 4th – Comply Or DieI mean… just look! If you want to use the Hennessy as a stepping stone to finding this years winner; i suggest you consider the likes of…
The Tother One
Niche Market
What A FriendI’d also throw in Carruthers seeing as he was only 3/4 of a length off being 5th last November…
And i understand Character Building and Dream Alliance both placed in 2007, but the numbers show that 3 years is the maximum difference rather than 4.
This has been a Peter Hannan Stat post. I hope you are intrigued.
Bucked one of the most prevalent of trends last year winning off a weight of 11st5,
A lot of absolute rubbish is talked about weight trends in the National. Don’t let it put you off if you think a horse is well handicapped.
Over the last 25 years not many horses have carried more than 11 st in the National. Indeed in some years only 3, 2 or even just one horse (Master Oats) carried 11 stones or more; racing against over 30 carrying less than 10st. Looking at the percentage of horses who carried 11st or more, they did as well as you could reasonably expect. Better than expected if you include placed horses.
Value Is EverythingPeter H,
I would imagine one of the reasons why Hennessey winners don’t win the National is their mark goes up too much when winning at Newbury. However, since State Of Play won it, he has not shown the same level of form. So is on a mark significantly less than the one given for winning it.
Don’t don’t back State Of Play because he is a Hennessey winner.
Instead, don’t back State Of Play because he is no longer good enough.Value Is Everything2010 11-5
2009 11-0
2008 10-9
2007 10-6
2006 10-8
2005 11-1
2004 10-10
2003 10-7
2002 10-4
2001 10-12
2000 10-12
1999 9-10
1998 10-5
1997 9-10
1996 10-7
1995 10-6
1994 10-8
1992 10-7
1991 10-6
1990 10-6Ginger, even if you say percentage wise not many horses have carried more than 11 stone in the last 30 years or so (on average there are are around half a dozen each year who have done so looking briefly on the internet), the above stats don’t lie – only 3 winners have carried 11 stone or more since 1990. I mean, its a tall order logging around such a hefty weight over 4 and a half miles and 30 fences. Besides, as stated in my post, I now longer feel this is important as Phil Smith has begun to compress the handicap so the next few years this trend will be less of an issue.
This may be of interest:
A couple of years ago I looked in to the supposed bias against top weights in the Grand National. It is true lower weights have won and placed more times. But is this statistic fair?
In the 25 years (24 Nationals) sample:
There were 933 runners
782 horses carried less than 11 stones (83.82% of all runners)
151 horses carried 11 stones or more (16.18% of all runners)
Therefore in these 24 years, those carrying less than 11 stones should be expected to win more than 5 times the number of Grand Nationals as those carrying 11 stones or more. Which is exactly what has happened.In 1997 only 1 horse (Master Oats 25/1 5th) of the 36 runners carried more than 11stones. So those who think 11 stone plus horses should do as well as below 11 stones, are judging 1 horse running against 35; hardly fair.
In 1985 (including Corbiere 3rd) and 1989 (The Thinker 3rd) only 2 horses of 40 carried 11 stones or more, in 1990 only 2 of 38.
In 1988 (including Rhyme And Reason 1st and West Tip 4th) just 3 of 40. In 1994 it was 3 of 36, in 1998 on bottomless ground (Sunny Bay 2nd) 3 of 37 and 1999 only 3 of 32 carried 11 stones or more.
In all of the above races the higher weights were vastly outnumbered, yet did exceptionally well.In 24 runnings:
74 of 96 placed horses carried less than 11 stones (77.08% of all placed horses)
22 of 96 placed horses carried more than 11 stones (22.92% of all placed horse)
However:
74 out of 782 means only 9.46% of those carrying less than 11 stones were placed
22 out of 151 means 14.57% of those carrying more than 11 stones were placedTherefore, those carrying more than 11 stones in fact have a better record for being placed than the lower weights.
Much is made of no top weight winning for ages.
Yet in 1986, 87, 91 and 94 an automatic top weight took part from places like Czechoslovakia; at odds of at least 100/1 and up to 500/1. Hardly surprising they did not win.
If adding up all the SP’s percentages of top weights e.g. 5.9 for 16/1 + 10 for 9/1 etc. (including 2 horses if dual top weights). It comes to 146.35 ‘/, 24 races = 6.09 for an average SP of between 15/1 and 16/1. Those are bookmakers prices with mark ups, so the true odds can be estimated as something like 22/1 (4.3%). Considering those automatic top weights with next to no chance of winning, and the estimated true odds of the average top weight – It is hardly surprising no top weight has won for ages.Looking only at top weights with a fair chance of winning:
Corbiere 11-10 in 1985 at 9/1 3rd
West Tip 11-7 in 87 at 11/1 4th
The Thinker 11-10 in 89 at 10/1 3rd
Sunny Bay 12-0 in 98 at 12/1 2nd
Monty’s Pass 11-12 in 04 at 20/1 4th
Hedgehunter 11-12 in 06 at 5/1 2ndAdded to that:
In 2006 take out just one of the 40 runners (Numbersixvalverdie) top weight Hedgehunter would’ve won.
In 2005 take out two (Hedgehunter and Le Coudray) and top weight Royal Auclair would’ve won.
In 2004 take out the first three home and top weight Monty’s Pass would’ve won.Top weights and high weighted horses run well at Aintree. In 2002 and 2008 11-6 was carried to second place by What’s Up Boys (Kingsmark 4th under 11-9) and Comply Or Die, just 4 lbs less than this year’s top weight of 11-10. Royal Auclair in 2005 achieved the same position under 11-10.
Last year Don’t Push It won the race under 11-5 with second place Black Appalache 11-6. These two were 20 lengths clear of the third, which means had both horses carried top weight of 11-10 one of them would (in all probability) have won, the other (in all probability) second. Another 4 or 5 lbs on their backs might have made jumping slightly more difficult and the others would probably have got a bit closer – but NOT 20 lengths closer.
It can be seen by the evidence above that those at 11-6 or more do well. “Ahhh but they have not WON a race in ages” I hear you cry. Yes, but there is such a thing as coincidence; the fact top weights have run so well without winning suggests it’s a coincidence. Talking of coincidence, I suppose now 11-6 is the “won’t win” mark? Reducing even further the top weighted group while adding to lesser weights. Of course weight carried should be considered, but only as a judgement on how well or poorly handicapped a horse is; or on heavier ground where some believe it has more effect; or on whether they’re size (small) makes it harder to carry. To dismiss a horse’s chance purely on this weight carried statistic is highly questionable. May be we should look for horses names with an “o” as the second letter, half of the last 16 winners are from this group; Royal Athlete, Rough Quest, Lord Gyllene, Bobbyjo, Monty’s Pass, Comply Or Die, Mon Mome, Don’t Push It, ?o?????
There is one good reason why high weights don’t often win. Those at the top of the handicap usually have their form exposed or on the downgrade. Improving horses who could be Gold Cup winners aren’t “risked” in a National. Only when proven not up to the task (and so easier for the handicapper to get a handle on) they’re allowed to take their chance. It’s obvious unexposed types have a greater chance of defying the handicapper than exposed sorts. Neptunes Collonges is exposed and may be on the downgrade. However, despite joint top weight, if (quite a big IF) recapturing his best is well handicapped. It could be argued Don’t Push It is still unexposed at extreme distances, although looks inconsistent. Synchronised is also unexposed, but a very poor jumper. Midnight Chase is still improving, but will he be allowed to run?
I believe horses should be judged as individuals, not purely by weight carried.
Value Is Everything
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