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what a friend goes to cheltenham then aintree but mor elikely to run in betfair bowl thent eh national
vf
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Grand National Prices from Hills
(UPDATED) John Smiths Grand National: 14-1 Ballabriggs, 16-1 Dont Push It, Niche Market, 20-1 Big Fella Thanks, The Midnight Club, Synchronised, 25-1 BecauseIcouldn’tsee, Hello Bud, Merigo Notre Pere, Midnight Chase, Neptune Collonges, Notre Pere, Oscar Time, West End Rocker, 33-1 Backstage, Bluesea Cracker, Calgary Bay, Galant Nuit, Giles Cross, Majestic Concorde, Our Monty, Silver by Nature, State Of Play, The Tother One, 40-1 Arbour Supreme, Bally Trim, Carronhills, Character Building, Chief Dan George, Comply or Die, I’moncloudnine, Junior, King Fontaine, Meanus Dandy, Mobaasher, Nicto de Beauchene, Northern Alliance, Quiscover Fontaine, Quolibet, Royal Rosa, Tricky Trickster, Vic Venturi, 50-1 bar (EW 1,2,3,4)
GRAND NATIONAL SPECIALS (singles only – win only)
Winning trainer: 11-2 Mullins, 6-1 Nicholls, 7-1 O’Neill, 12-1 McCain, 14-1 Twiston-Davies, 16-1 Pipe
Nicholls to train the one-two: 33-1
Winning jockey: 12-1 McCoy, Walsh
Finishing position match bet: 5-6 McCoy, 5-6 Walsh
Irish-trained winner: 5-2
Irish one-two-three: 40-1
2011 Cheltenham Festival winner to win the Grand National: 7-1
All runners to successfully negotiate the first: 5-2
Number of finishers: 7-2 zero-ten, 11-8 eleven-fifteen, 9-4 sixteen-twenty, 7-1 twenty-one- twenty-five, 16-1 twenty-six or overI was hoping for 10.10lbs or 10.11lbs but still think The Midnight Club is attracively weighted given…profile, form, owner, trainer and back class.
I very much like the weights of Notre Pere and From Dawn To Dusk…
Heavens to betsy i’m wondering if State of Play will even manage to get in this year. Imagine what a waste of season that would be?
I think i can safely say however when i look over some of these weights that Phil Smith…. is an idiot. Does he actually know what he’s doing or does he just draw numbers from a bingo machine? Some of the weights he’s given out are just pure stupidity.
I’m not being cute, i do legitimately believe there is something wrong with him.
A few years ago he had Monkerhostin only a couple of pounds higher than Crozan
Man’s an idiot. Never forgiven him for those comments about Cheltenham a couple of years ago " Ideally, i’d like to see a 50-1 shot beat the favourite "
He’s in the back pocket of the bookies.Worst piece of rating i’ve ever seen was early last season or a couple of seasons ago. A plater with an appalling strike rate, who was rated about 70 odd over hurdles, managed to win a dog-end race by 15 lengths. It was given a 24lb rise. Unbelievable.
Isn’t it about time there were conditions put in to the entries?
e.g.
NO horse is allowed to run if they have not won a chase at 3 miles or more!What is I’msingingtheblues doing in the Grand National? He barely gets 2 1/2 miles, let alone 4 1/2.
Is this cause you genuinely think he has no chance or cause you want a specific horse on a low weight (who has no chance of getting in) to run. I think any horse should be allowed to run. If the owners pay the fees etc they shouldn’t be denied a day out just so horses like Merigo can get in the race.
The reason I make the comment cause these exacts remarks were made by many of the forum members last year when they realised horses they’d fancied weren’t going to get in cause of the weights.
I have yet to study the race Phil, don’t know who I’ll be backing yet. So no ulterior motive. I just think allowing no hopers to run (I would not back I’msingingtheblues @ 2000/1) may well prevent a horse with a chance from running. Therefore, it makes the race less competitive. There is no point this horse (and others) running, because they have no chance of winning / staying the trip.
Value Is EverythingPhil Smith does his job well, that is to make every horse in the race (in theory) have the same chance of winning; if running to the mark Phil Smith believes them capable of. That is probably what he meant by wanting a 50/1 winner; ie if the favourite won EVERY time, he might feel as though his job was not as well done as it might.
The handicapper’s job is not to make things easy for the punter.
He is not an idiot, and certainly not in the "back pocket of the bookies".
Value Is EverythingPhil Smith does his job well, that is to make every horse in the race (in theory) have the same chance of winning; if running to the mark Phil Smith believes them capable of. That is probably what he meant by wanting a 50/1 winner; ie if the favourite won EVERY time, he might feel as though his job was not as well done as it might.
He does his job so well it takes him a couple of weeks to get the race right as he has no obvious, logical way of ‘compressing’ the weights. 101 horses and it takes him ‘a couple of weeks.’ 2 hours per horse on a 14 hour day.
Yes, bingo balls are what I’ve heard he uses at BHA towers when rating horses, along with his numbers from International lottery tickets.
On scanning the weights I noticed that Mobaasher (one of the two US-breds this year) happens to be bred by Brushwood Stable. That’s a name I recognize! An awful lot of great timber and hurdle horses have come up through that operation over the years. So now I have a crazy longshot to root for.
Not sure if Mobaasher will get into the race, Miss Woodford, but what can you tell me about his pedigree? Is he bred to stay 4 plus miles? Ms Williams is a very canny trainer and it’s worth keeping an eye on her handicappers; she’s been very much mixing hurdles with fences with this one..he’s running this weekend in the National trial I believe. Certainly going to keep an eye on him at Cheltenham, too.
Isn’t it about time there were conditions put in to the entries?
I’d also like to see the rotation of eliminations changed.
Although am in favour of the current "no penalties", without upping or decreasing weights:
Do believe for elimination purposes only, the Official Rating of the improvers up to and including the Cheltenham Festival results; should determine who runs and who does not. Yet without decreasing a horse’s rating for a poor run (don’t want to discourage horses running in the interim).
This would allow a horse to improve to a mark where it is able to get in to the race. Yet the rotation of eliminations would still be known between two and three weeks before the race.
Value Is EverythingNot sure if Mobaasher will get into the race, Miss Woodford, but what can you tell me about his pedigree? Is he bred to stay 4 plus miles? Ms Williams is a very canny trainer and it’s worth keeping an eye on her handicappers; she’s been very much mixing hurdles with fences with this one..he’s running this weekend in the National trial I believe. Certainly going to keep an eye on him at Cheltenham, too.
He is exceptionally well-bred on the dam side. His dam, Balistroika, produced the great 1000 Guineas winneer Russian Rhythm and stakes-placed Ive Gota Bad Liver (worst name ever?) and Perfect Performance. Balistroika was US-bred by Nijinsky, but the second dam produced 3 Group One winners including Champion 2yo Park Appeal. Rahy was a spectacular sire who could get horses over any distance and any surface. I have seen a few jumpers by him, but can’t think of them off the top of my head.
The US does not really have a steeplechase-specific breeding industry. Most horses bred here are not expected to make 12 furlongs, let alone a 2 1/2 mile hurdle, a 4 mile timber, or a 4 1/2 mile steeplechase. Of course, some can and do win those races. I don’t see anything glaring in Mobaasher’s pedigree to suggest that he can’t stay the distance.
State of Play and Big Fella Thanks have got very nice weights there! Definitely pile on them both EW.
I would just like to thank Ginge on behalf of the forum for publishing these. Top work!
I firmly believe that Don’t Push It can make it two consecutive victories in this….wouldn’t be dissuaded by the fact it’s top weight, and as stated he’s actually well-in.
The ground is the important factor to me – if, as anticipated it will be good to soft then I can see those towards the head of the weights, i.e. Neptune Collonges, Tidal Bay (if he runs) etc. being in the first four, as it won’t be as much a stamina-sapping test as on soft so class should shine through.
Don’t Push It EW @ 20/1 for me.
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