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Not sure where you’re coming from with that comment about Fairyhouse disraelite- it has one gentle hill up to Ballyhack but is as close to a flat track as you’ll get- if there are "lots of hills and valleys" they’ve been hidden from me for the last thirty-odd years!
Ok carvills, maybe "lots of hills and valleys" was pushing it a bit. But even the climb to Ballyhack and the downhill run down the far side might be a bit too undulating for Beef. Leopardstown, on the other hand, is as flat as they come.
Or maybe I’m talking through my pipe….
can’t have beef at any price to be honest.
Even with the three-pound drop from the handicapper, he will have to be near his best form to lug top weight around for 3-and-a-half miles.
Not sure Fairyhouse will suit either – a different track to Leopardstown with a lot of hills and valleys. I think it’s no coincidence that his best runs have been on the relatively flat, often sodden tracks of Leopardstown and Haydock.
There will surely be too many better handicapped rivals lower down the order and it would be a mighty run were he to finish in the first four.
Not sure about Cailin Alainn, Royal County Star is probably still well handicapped but makes a few errors and probably better on top of the ground. Sir Frederick also needs quick ground. Pomme Tiepy is on a great weight but a 5yo mare who fell last time out? No thanks. Homer Wells has conditions in his favour but form hasn’t been quite good enough this season.
My three against the field at this stage are:
Notre Pere (I’ve backed at 20s with WH)
Preists Leap (still pondering a bet)
Ballycullen Boy (backed at 25s with Ladbrokes, after carvillshill’s word on Lads’ ante-post pledge on Irish races…)d.
Is Hordago running in it? will have a small ew on him if he is…
Hordago down to run. Best-priced 50/1 with blue square but will be running from 16 lbs out of the handicap if Beef or Salmon stays in.
carvillshill,
glad to hear you’re on Notre Pere’s side. Managed to get on at 20s with William Hill when the five-days were confirmed on wednesday.
The two I like from the original entries were Notre Pere and Abbeybraney, who have looked like real staying handicap chasers in the making in their novice chases this season.
Abbeybraney dropped out, so left me with NP. Beef Or Salmon almost certain to run, according to quotes from Hourigan this morning, so with a weight of 10-7 and loads of the others out of the handicap, I’m hoping for a big run….
Tuffers,
You’re wrong about one thing.
Bobs Pride never ran at Cheltenham, never mind being placed at a Festival…
I think he is getting a bit long in the tooth to be bothering the likes of Sizing Europe who is probaly about 7lbs better than Hardy Eustace was in his prime.
my first post on the forum lads. Hello to all, hope you are well.
This comment struck me. If you’re right, surely Sizing Europe at 9/4 or so would be the absolute banker of the meeting? My own thoughts are that Osana could get very close to him with a 6lb pull for the 4 lengths beating in the Greatwood Hurdle. Caught the eye in the County Hurdle last year when just paid the price up the hill for setting a ferocious gallop.
Harchibald would have to have a chance on Newcastle running with his exceptional jumping and Meade team back in form.
Ebaziyan is the outsider I like – done little since winning the Supreme Novices 12 months ago but Ruby could be in the plate and if so, he’s likely to be much, much shorter than 33/1 on the day.
Anyway, hope my debut post didn’t offend any Classic winners….
d.
