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I dispute that reet.
Thought you might, Grassy.
Time will tell.I totally agree with Reet. If you don’t rate Al Eile and Hardy Eustace’s runs as 160’s then you have to also downgrade marks of Harchibald / Katchit and a few others. Al Eile clearly ran to 160 behind Harchibald the form and ratings tie in as they should with Straw Bear, Katchit, Hardy Eustace etc.
I can’t see how Hardy and Al Eile have NOT run to 160.Sizing Europe posted at least a 168 last time and that is about 5lbs clear of anything else on this seasons form.
Grasshopper if Hardy hasn’t run to 160 for 15 months as you say what did you have him running to in last years Champion Hurdle and therefore how do you rate Sublimity and explain the proximity of Brave Inca?
Hardy used to be a high 160’s horse in my opinion, these days he’s bit slower and a 159 / 160 horse which equates to probably seven or eight lengths inferior to what he used to be.
I think he is getting a bit long in the tooth to be bothering the likes of Sizing Europe who is probaly about 7lbs better than Hardy Eustace was in his prime.
Don’t know what you’re basing that on. Can’t for the life of me think what form would entitle you to say that.
FORM?
open your eyes mateI totally agree with Reet. If you don’t rate Al Eile and Hardy Eustace’s runs as 160’s then you have to also downgrade marks of Harchibald / Katchit and a few others. Al Eile clearly ran to 160 behind Harchibald the form and ratings tie in as they should with Straw Bear, Katchit, Hardy Eustace etc.
I can’t see how Hardy and Al Eile have NOT run to 160.Sizing Europe posted at least a 168 last time and that is about 5lbs clear of anything else on this seasons form.
Grasshopper if Hardy hasn’t run to 160 for 15 months as you say what did you have him running to in last years Champion Hurdle and therefore how do you rate Sublimity and explain the proximity of Brave Inca?
Hardy used to be a high 160’s horse in my opinion, these days he’s bit slower and a 159 / 160 horse which equates to probably seven or eight lengths inferior to what he used to be.
Flash, imo Hardy has never been a "high-160’s horse" – he was a mid-160’s horse at his very best. I had him running to 165 in his second Champion Hurdle, and I am quite satisfied that he has not been running to within several lbs of that mark for a while.
You clearly reckon that Harchibald ran right up to the best of his form in the Fighting Fifth. That’s not a position I have adopted, and I have him running to 159 (adding a couple of lbs for superiority). Al Elie I have running to 155 that day, and Katchit to 153.
Sublimity I had on 163+ for his Champion Hurdle, with Hardy Eustace on 159, and showing definite signs of being on the downgrade. Brave Inca (another admirable horse who was never a "high-160’s" animal) I had running to 160 in the Champion Hurdle – some 4lbs below his form in his winning year.
I have Hardy and Al Eile both running to 155 in the AIG, and Sizing Europe on 163+. If you are going to allocate 168 to Sizing Europe, then you must give the mare a rating around 150, and she is patently not in that league – imo anyway.
We have been through all of the above on the AIG thread. There really should not have been any need for it to be repeated here – reet’s response was more than adequate.
I wonder if Nickname will come over this year. He’s won on good going before in France; and the times he has returned, admittedly mostly in 2 1/2 chases, are way, way above anything Master Minded has returned. Plus, of course he has experience, and the stiff course should suit.
Marb, try reading my post again. I reference the first four horses home in the AIG – not the mare in isolation, so kindly refrain from suggesting that I am rating the race through her.
As I recall, you rated Sizing Europe at 172 after the AIG, menaing that – on a lb-for-length scale, you have the mare running to a mark of around 157/158 in the AIG.
I would love to hear your explanation for these figures. I have some crayons, an abacus and a some paper circles I can lend you, if it helps you crunch the numbers.
"I think we could see a future champion at Cheltenham"
This could be the most spectacular piece of insight I’ve read on here.
And I would posit exactly the same question to these "respected judges" of yours namely; has the mare run to a rating in the high 150’s or not?
And I would listen to their responses with much interest, because it would equate to improvement of over a stone on anything she’s achieved before (with the exception of one previous, bogus, AIG run).
It’s easier to argue that Hardy Eustace and Al Eile have run to a mark in the low-160’s (though it’s still cobblers), which is why the proximity of the mare never gets a mention.
All this is academic anyway, and even my more cautious assessment of the AIG form doesn’t detract from Sizing Europe’s Champion Hurdle chance in any way whatsoever.
But I am firmly of the opinion that the AIG form has been over-rated, and that SE’s price is a poor reflection of his Champion Hurdle chance.
I
would love to hear your explanation for these figures. I have some crayons, an abacus and a some paper circles I can lend you, if it helps you crunch the numbers.
ive been asking for those back for ages!
I’m sure you’re all done with this discussion but here’s my opinion anyway…
Lounaos was the talking horse of the juveniles last season – she’d posted a rating in the AIG dramatically higher than anything Katchit, Punjbai, Degas Art or Liberate had done… I think we went into the race with the "experts" opining that we needed to improve 14bs to get near to her… I think she was 30l behind with no excuses (although we did improve)
Could it be that she’s been massively overrated again? (with the associated reflection on Sizing Europe)
Katchit seems to have been running consistently this season according to ratings yet that’s not what we think, he’s been short of fitness until Wincanton and seems to have come on again (but not in rating terms)
… but basically I though Sizing Europe ran somewhere between 150-155 in the greatwood, and then improved on that to be somewhere near the 170 mark, which without insulting you seems to be closer to the mark of respected judges than your figure of 163+.
I think the Greatwood rating is shaky… lets continue the argument of using fourth (sorry that’s coincidence not an actual plan)… Trouble at Bay has been beaten 5 lengths in receipt of 3lbs – now Trouble at Bay’s a nice horse but not currently running up to mid-late 140s is he?
I think FWIW that whether it will be a top quality renewal or not, it looks close. Everyone has form that can be questioned… Sizing Europe just happens to have won his races (which helps)
I think he is getting a bit long in the tooth to be bothering the likes of Sizing Europe who is probaly about 7lbs better than Hardy Eustace was in his prime.
my first post on the forum lads. Hello to all, hope you are well.
This comment struck me. If you’re right, surely Sizing Europe at 9/4 or so would be the absolute banker of the meeting? My own thoughts are that Osana could get very close to him with a 6lb pull for the 4 lengths beating in the Greatwood Hurdle. Caught the eye in the County Hurdle last year when just paid the price up the hill for setting a ferocious gallop.
Harchibald would have to have a chance on Newcastle running with his exceptional jumping and Meade team back in form.
Ebaziyan is the outsider I like – done little since winning the Supreme Novices 12 months ago but Ruby could be in the plate and if so, he’s likely to be much, much shorter than 33/1 on the day.
Anyway, hope my debut post didn’t offend any Classic winners….
d.
I love the Champion Hurdle because the trends are so strong. Every one of the last ten Champion Hurdles has been won by a horse that had either won or been placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
The most important race from a previous festival is the previous year’s Champion Hurdle followed by the previous year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle. The Ballymore (formerly Sun Alliance) Novices Hurdle has (possibly surprisingly in view of the fact it is run over 2m5f) produced Champion Hurdle winners and of late the County Hurdle has also got into the mix.
If we focus on horses who have won or been placed (first three) in one of the last two years’ festivals in one of those races (to exclude very old form) we get the following shortlist (I’ve included the current Stan James NRNB price in brackets).
Afsoun (3rd 2007 Champion Hurdle) (20/1)
Bobs Pride (3rd 2007 Ballymore Novices Hurdle) (40/1)
Ebaziyan (1st 2007 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (25/1)
Straw Bear (2nd 2006 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (20/1)
Sublimity (1st 2007 Champion Hurdle) (9/2)
Amaretto Rose (3rd 2007 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (25/1)Tuffers, are you sure Sublimity had run at a previous cheltenham festival before he won last year? Im sure he did not, although I may well be wrong without checking that.
Just checked and he was indded a runner in the previous years supreme novice hurdle when finishing a valiant 4th to Noland.
Looking at the trends I’ve outlined and the NRNB prices Afsoun looks the value at 20/1
Tuffers,
You’re wrong about one thing.
Bobs Pride never ran at Cheltenham, never mind being placed at a Festival…
Tuffers,
You’re wrong about one thing.
Bobs Pride never ran at Cheltenham, never mind being placed at a Festival…
I think I must have had a bit of a brain melt there. I meant Catch Me (3rd 2007 Ballymore Novices Hurdle) not Bobs Pride.
Regarding Sublimity, look again at last year’s race – he doesn’t jump the last, then after it he doesn’t quicken away, but he’s far enough in front to stay in front. Just don’t ask me to name who will win, probably Sizing Europe – though Osana won’t be far away, and Harchibald will surely make the frame.
open your eyes mate
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