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could Sublimity have possibly not been 100% fit last year;
Almost certainly not the case IMO. You don’t win Champion Hurdles / Gold Cups etc if you’re not 100%.
They’re all different types of horses. Royal Gait was an out and out stayer, Alderbrook wasn’t.
Its not really a fair comparrison as the flat and hurdles are different codes.
I think its a case of trying to fit the stats to an opinion when as with most stats they can be manipulated in any way if you try hard enough.
The horses don’t know the trends. Osana and Sizing Europe have both won big, graded hurdles races against the best of the opposition, that is enough of a recommendation.
The great thing about racing is it’s all about opinions. From my point of view, opinions like yours make the market for me.
His run at Gowran was not exactly brimming with promise but if he were made to settle at Cheltenham I have a hunch that De Valira could run well at a big price.
"Tuffers":2teotgw2 wrote: I love the Champion Hurdle because the trends are so strong. Every one of the last ten Champion Hurdles has been won by a horse that had either won or been placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
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Afsoun (3rd 2007 Champion Hurdle) (20/1)
Bobs Pride (3rd 2007 Ballymore Novices Hurdle) (40/1)
Ebaziyan (1st 2007 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (25/1)
Straw Bear (2nd 2006 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (20/1)
Sublimity (1st 2007 Champion Hurdle) (9/2)
Amaretto Rose (3rd 2007 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (25/1)That’s some list Bob’s Pride was an error as someone had to point out to you…………..Afsoun you can have at 33/1 and you missed out Katchit who would beat the majority of the above if he only had 3 legs.
I think you need a new Turfax stick
You say you make racing pay and you like to keep it simple………anyone can say that…….you’ve given us a list what are you going to do back them all?………at least give us your selection I would love to know which you think will win.
"Fist of Fury 2k8":2qhklhwe wrote: That’s some list Bob’s Pride was an error as someone had to point out to you…………..Afsoun you can have at 33/1 and you missed out Katchit who would beat the majority of the above if he only had 3 legs.
I think you need a new Turfax stick
You say you make racing pay and you like to keep it simple………anyone can say that…….you’ve given us a list what are you going to do back them all?………at least give us your selection I would love to know which you think will win.
As I’m relatively new on here I’m not sure whether the form is to just try to ignore your posts but I’ll answer this one.
I’ve noticed that typos are severely punished on here
I wrote a list of the decs which had previous festival form and then copied the name Bob’s Pride down by mistake.If you’d read my post you would see that I clearly stated that the prices in brackets were the Stan James NRNB prices as they were the only ones offering NRNB when I posted.
Katchit doesn’t qualify as he won the Triumph Hurdle and I explained which festival form I was including
As for your doubting whether I make a profit from my betting, I don’t require validation from you or anyone else on that score.
If it’s a tip you’re looking for (which in view of your attitude I assume you’ll ignore anyway), I would say that if he turns up fit and well then Sublimity would be my selection
all getting quite heated in here this evening
so I think it’s going to go like this…
Osana sets off like he did in the Bula (Boylesports) but doesn’t get a breather and tires as they turn for home… Straw Bear, Catch Me and Afsoun already behind…
Katchit aims to repeat Triumph and goes for home…
Sublimity, Sizing Europe and Harchibald cruising behind… sublimity first off the bridle and finds little…
Approaching the last Katchit, Sizing Europe and Harchibald pretty level – all I can’t figure out is who finds what after the lastHarchibald finds zilch.
Katchit doesn’t find enough.
You find that you’ve mistaken Sizing Europe for Osana.
Harchibald finds zilch.
Katchit doesn’t find enough.
You find that you’ve mistaken Sizing Europe for Osana.
Hmmm… that wasn’t supposed to be the first response
Osana may be overrrated… enough said about easy lead in Bula
Any future comments please restrict to versions where Katchit wins please!!!
agree with grey dolphin; I’m going to have a small ew on DeValira tomorrow; bit of a gamble, gamble – but he is the forgotten horse of the race – however, best result emotion wise would be Katchit, however I’m not going to jinx him by backing him!
You may well be right Katchit but I think if Sizing Europe is there at the last travellign any way decent then I reckon he should win. The one worry I have with him is that his jumping might caue him to get further back then desired or possibly miss a flight a flight and expand too much energy
Agree that Katchit will be very hard to keep out of the first 4
Harchibald will have to come with one run with Carberry lying about a lenght down jumping the last and allow his jumping to carry him towards the lead and then try and keep the momentum going up the hill
I reckon Sublimity’s cruising speed will have him right in contention at the final flight though be struggle after that. The thing is the boylesports was on the old course with the accentuated long run to the last which was never going to suit him.
Not sure what to make of Osana.
There could be a hell of a lot of horses wscrummagin for room coming down the hill when you look at others in the field blythe night, silent oscar, jazz messenger, ebaziyan, farmer jack, punjabi, de valira, straw bear …as well as those mentioned in the previouse posts
Actually any thoughts on Farmer Jack for a place? Will love quick ground and was an improving horse at the backend of autumn though may not quite be this class yet
I reckon Sublimity’s cruising speed will have him right in contention at the final flight though be struggle after that. The thing is the boylesports was on the old course with the accentuated long run to the last which was never going to suit him.
I watched the race again the other night. It just looked to me like Sublimity blew up at the end of the race. Someone I know who was at Cheltenham that day described him as looking like ‘a hairy dog’ in the parade ring so presumably he wasn’t fully fit.
Your point about the course could also be very valid, though.
The one thing I have taken from all these rumours about Sublimity is that despite them his price has barely moved on Betfair. In my experience if there is really a problem with a horse it will drift like a barge on Betfair.
Fist,
You wrote
If you think that was a good champion hurdle last year there is no hope for you. I am repeating myself here but watch Hardy Eustace last year go look Hardy Eustace previous years………look when he first comes under pressure…….NOTHING ran any sort of race last year except Sublimity who was handed the race on the plate…….he went past ok but as soon as he hit the rising ground……..ZAP!!!! he had gone completely and just plodded up the hill to the line. A good horse would have won that by 6 or 8 lengths. He is either nothing special or he simply does not stay the trip. If it’s the latter then he’s in big trouble this year because he will need every bit of his speed just to get to Katchit and/or Sublimity……they will be strating to run where HE and B Inca were stopping last year.
Fond as you have been of basing times at the end of races I had a quick look of some recent timings from jumping the second last. These are admittedly rough calculations done with the naked eye you understand but are near as dammit
Istabraq – Good – 36 secs
Istabraq – Good – 38 secs
Istabraq – Good/Soft – 39 secs
Rooster Booster – Good – 40 secs
Make A Stand – Good – 40 secs
Sublimity – Soft – 39 secsI agree if you bet him this year you are assuming he retains his ability , however as Tuffers said his price hasn’t altered much even after his slightly disappointing run behind Osana. I think if he runs to last years performance he will go very close indeed.
Exactly when did Sublimity get hampered by a loose horse behin Noland?
From memeory ( I could be wrong !) I believe he got took wide rounding the corner at the top of the hill before three out and had to maybe use a bit of his speed to get him within hailing distance of the front runners, lost 2 or three lengths maybe and interupted his rhythm. Noticeably last year went the inside route.
Seems to me Harchibald is alot more mentally sound this time around, i think he wasnt given the best of rides when beaten by straw bear, but hey, i’m no jockey and he’s obviously a bit of a law unto himself, i’ve backed him from twentys down to sixes, so fingers crossed!
This posted in another house this morning, and attributed to David Casey at a Preview last night. Make of it what you will.
"David Casey said he was down at Henry De Bromhead’s yard yesterday riding out a few lots. One of his mounts was doing his normal workout when Casey said “he stopped to a walkâ€
Fist,
Do you not think you are putting too much emphasis on what happened ‘after the last’ in your races.
You knocked Denman’s performance in the Lexus because you say he didn’t quicken after the last, you’ve knocked Sublimity to an extent because you say he found ‘ZAP’ after the last.
Have you never heard of a horse winning the race before the last, putting the race to bed before the last etc. It’s not all about stretching 10L clear after the last you know, esecially when the race is won.
OK, Sublimity might now have gone away and won by 10L, but to say he found ZAP after the last is a bit silly – if this was the case he would have stopped and got caught (depending what you mean by ZAP that is). He ran right to the line and never looked like getting caught.
I’m not a Sublimity fan and don’t think he will retain his title – however I couldn’t say that with confidence. My reasons for not fancying him this year have nothing to do with how he won the CH last year, it’s more to do with his preperation this season.
Mike
I wrote a list of the decs which had previous festival form and then copied the name Bob’s Pride down by mistake.
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