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Somehow my name appears twice, though I’ve not picked any horse selections for the first entry bot entries will probably finish in the same postion!
I don’t subscribe to this ‘brave decision’ nonsense and think the 9/1 on Moon Racer is one of the worst prices I can remember for a long long time. I hope he gets completely outclassed in an embarrassing fashion and yes, for the avoidance of doubt, I am talking out of my pocket.
If I was a bookie I would do a ridiculous Moon Racer customer offer. Something like 50/1 on moon racer up to £10 or something.
You might be right but I think he’s 2/2 at cheltenham. Yanworth is 0/2 at the same venue and 3-1.
Hes 1 for 3 at cheltenham. 0 for 2 at the festival.
All four championship winners from last year not returning due to injury. Desperately sad stuff.
Queen Anne enclosure is basically a tatts enclosure.
RUK vip might mean that there is a section in the queen anne enclosure just for RUK members.
King Edward enclosure is more Premier/Club and gives you access to level four in the grandstand, which has imo the best view point of any racecourse I’ve ever been to.
Henderson told ITV Racing: “That was great. I was very nervous about the ground. We tried to keep him out of it like we tried to protect Sprinter Sacre in those days.
“We’ll try to win the Arkle first. He’s been on exactly the same route. It’s the way we came in with Sprinter as a novice. OK, we’ve got this far now.
“The thing we all miss this year is Sprinter not being able to have a game with Douvan. If everything goes right and we’re all here in a year’s time, maybe Altior and Douvan can meet then. It would be great.”
I found this quote more interesting:
One of four possible runners in the Betfair Hurdle for owner JP McManus, Nicholls ‘will be surprised’ if Barry Geraghty doesn’t ride but confesses to being in the dark as to whether Movewiththetimes is well handicapped.
I’ve read somewhere that Nichols had backed Movewiththetimes for the Supreme at the start of the season, so he obviously likes him a lot.
This seems to show how much you should listen to Ruby Walsh about the horses in the Mullins yard, as it’s like he’s not completely in the loop. After commenting that faugheen is grand then couple of hours later turns out he injured. He’s not doing it on purpose, but if he was in the know maybe he’d say before he gets interviewed ‘don’t ask me about faugheen’
I’ve bought tickets for champion hurdle day two years running because I wanted to see faugheen in person. If I was Rich Ricci I’d be pissed off. 4 out of 5 star horses won’t be turning up at Cheltenham this season.
The value is in the handicaps, no?
Willie Mullins targets march and April that’s it but the past two years he’s had more talent to work with than this year.
But the bookmakers are taking dives left right and centre, Melon is not a 4/1 shot. Anyone backing him now is mental. You have to remember Vautour went of 7/2 and was probably 6/1 after he won a Grade 2. Nowadays any value you get is very early in the season, every bookmaker cut prices for fun in anteposte markets. They haven’t got major liabilities, they just aren’t willing to take any punter on ever.
Also the major markets are very mature. looking for value in them will result in horses that have ran poorly throughout the season therefore their price being bigger. Expecting them to outrun their odds is somewhat optimistic.
Value is subjective but I feel people sometimes don’t go for value they just go for something that’s bigger in price for the sake of it. Some people are more comfortable backing a 12/1 shot hiding behind supposed value because they don’t like backing a 13/8 shot. Even though that 13/8 shot should be 4/6 shot.
Because we are talking about the festival in it’s self I feel if you’re a punter who just bets the day of the race who is
looking for value you will lose in the non handicap races. In those races you have to go where the markets take you and play accordingly, like forecasts and so forth. Western warhorse at 33/1 is an anomaly.I just feel trying to look for something that isn’t there is a fruitless excerice at bookmaker prices. If you can get on on the exchange at fancy prices then the risk is worth the reward.
Wouldn’t fitness have to do with how efficiently the heart beats and therefore distributes oxygen via the blood cells.
I remember last year his horses weren’t running to form in Januray. Could it be his horses have been given Immunisations/Injections around this time?
Is Senewalk the forgotten horse here? Clearly had a problem on debut but if they could sort the problem out? I see today that Mullins has entered him. The other unusual entry is Pleasant Company. It must be the first time that a horse has been entered in the Supreme and the Grand National in the same year.
I’ve read that Senewalk had trouble with his breathing and since undergone a wind operation. 33s could look big if it has been sorted out.
I think there’s a bit of value in AMERICAN at 20/1 with Paddy Power
and Boylesports. He showed a bit of promise over hurdles, but disappointed on his last
run over them at Fairyhouse in a Grade 2, beaten a long way back in 6th by Acapella
Bourgeois. I think he looks an improved horse over fences, and had a nice pipe opener
over them at Exeter in November. He was clearly fancied that day and was backed from 5s
to 3/1 before the off. I think he improved on that a couple of weeks back at Warwick,
when he won with Champers On Ice behind him. He’s 7, and having had only 6 runs in total,
and 2 over fences, he’s open to more improvement and I think Harry Fry is having a pretty
decent year. I think the 20/1 is going to be as good a price as you’ll get
and he’s worth a punt. He does have an entry in the National Hunt Chase, but I don’t think
his running screams out running over 3m 7f, so I hope it’s relatively safe, all going well,
that he will go for this.Horse is very fragile, and it will only run at Cheltenham if the ground is soft. But the 20/1 probably has that factored in.
