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Good luck everyone ! And great logic gingster and the way you bet i assume you make profit in the long run. Perhaps not this race though hehe!
Anyone else a bit bothered that de bionville is riding would prefer fehily
Well, my weight adjusted predicted performance ratings are: Altior 189, Fox Norton 177, Traffic Fluide 179(?).
Altior did a 163 RPR winning the Supreme impressively and had he stayed hurdling would surely have recorded at least 170 by now. No evidence on chase runs he, as most horses do, won’t make a 10 better chaser (softish going doesn’t bother me) so 180, 11-05.
FN should continue his progress. The question is by how much? On RPRs he improved 12 between last season and this and by another 6 last time. This is a harder task again so on diminishing returns I have plumped for a further 3 of progress to 173, 11-10.
TF has done a 165 and could still have considerable improvement but I don’t think today, needs to stay fit and put runs together. The trainer is on eggshells and wary of pushing the horse at home. TF is bound to be held up and nursed like in a similar scenario to Ascot last time. This now is just a second run in 22 months. So rather than improvement I reckon he will do well to make 165, 11-00 hence the question mark.
Conclusion: FN could well improve by more than I have allowed but even so it will be very disappointing if Altior does not win by around 5L comfortably.
Well, my weight adjusted predicted performance ratings are: Altior 189
189!
I agree Altior is a lovely animal and should win today,but I do wonder where you get these figures from sometimes!
Altior’s form (in what he’s beaten and by how far) is worse than both Fox Norton and Traffic Fluide. That’s not knocking Altior, his form is exceptional for a novice. But this is not a novice race. Undoubted potential means I still expect him to show improved form to win this and should certainly start odds-on, ie has a better chance of winning than losing. However, to back him @ 4/7 (allowing for margin for error) I’d need to believe he’s got a 66%+ chance.
My 100% book:
60% chance, fair 4/6 Altior (take 4/5 or better) Best price currently available 4/7. No Bet.
20% 4/1 Fox Norton (take 5/1 or better) Best price currently available 7/2. No Bet.
18% 9/2 Traffic Fluide (take 11/2 or better) Best price currently available 7/1. BET!!!!!
2% 50/1 Dodging Bullets (take 80/1 or better) Best price currently available 33/1. No Bet.At the prices Traffic Fluide is my bet at around 7/1. Hopefully can get some each way on betfair.
Beware of each way bookmaker bets. Gino Trail is double entered, first preference is Warwick. So only 4 are likely to run.I’ve taken Traffic Fluide @ 25/1 each way NRNB Champion Chase and 20/1 win only NRNB Ryanair (NRNB important with a fragile horse).
Value Is EverythingWell, my weight adjusted predicted performance ratings are: Altior 189, Fox Norton 177, Traffic Fluide 179(?).
Altior did a 163 RPR winning the Supreme impressively and had he stayed hurdling would surely have recorded at least 170 by now. No evidence on chase runs he, as most horses do, won’t make a 10 better chaser (softish going doesn’t bother me) so 180, 11-05.
FN should continue his progress. The question is by how much? On RPRs he improved 12 between last season and this and by another 6 last time. This is a harder task again so on diminishing returns I have plumped for a further 3 of progress to 173, 11-10.
TF has done a 165 and could still have considerable improvement but I don’t think today, needs to stay fit and put runs together. The trainer is on eggshells and wary of pushing the horse at home. TF is bound to be held up and nursed like in a similar scenario to Ascot last time. This now is just a second run in 22 months. So rather than improvement I reckon he will do well to make 165, 11-00 hence the question mark.
Conclusion: FN could well improve by more than I have allowed but even so it will be very disappointing if Altior does not win by around 5L comfortably.
Altior put up 163 as a novice inexperienced hurdler GM. I agree, had he kept over hurdles would’ve been at least 170 over hurdles now. I agree, Altior will eventually be an outstanding chaser. But he’s only an inexperienced novice chaser at this moment in time – ie not at his peak yet. So surely it’s doubtful that he’s a 170 horse over fences yet, let alone 10 lbs higher?
Value Is EverythingDouvan V Altior.
Like Denman V Kauto Star?
or
Arkle V Flyingbolt?WOW!
Value Is EverythingArkle V Flyingbolt
That one never happened and I fear that Altior v Douvan won’t either. I reckon one of them will step up in trip next season….
WOW WHAT A HORSE!!!!
4/7 was a steal!!
As I said I am not usually a odds on punter but this horse is a MONSTER!!
Arkle V Flyingbolt
That one never happened and I fear that Altior v Douvan won’t either. I reckon one of them will step up in trip next season….
My point exactly Gladiateur.
Value Is EverythingWOW ALL THOSE WHO DOUBTED THE HORSE HAHAHA!
There is no ‘hype’ just genuine talent.I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again last years supreme is one of the best ever in terms of form.
Superstars left right and cente
Well I got that completely wrong, looked like a complete monster today and smashed them to bits.
On that showing it would more than shake up Douvan in the champion chase, especially as the mullins/ricci combo doesn’t look as bombproof as they normally done.
Well done winners.
Well, my weight adjusted predicted performance ratings are: Altior 189, Fox Norton 177, Traffic Fluide 179(?).
Altior did a 163 RPR winning the Supreme impressively and had he stayed hurdling would surely have recorded at least 170 by now. No evidence on chase runs he, as most horses do, won’t make a 10 better chaser (softish going doesn’t bother me) so 180, 11-05.
FN should continue his progress. The question is by how much? On RPRs he improved 12 between last season and this and by another 6 last time. This is a harder task again so on diminishing returns I have plumped for a further 3 of progress to 173, 11-10.
TF has done a 165 and could still have considerable improvement but I don’t think today, needs to stay fit and put runs together. The trainer is on eggshells and wary of pushing the horse at home. TF is bound to be held up and nursed like in a similar scenario to Ascot last time. This now is just a second run in 22 months. So rather than improvement I reckon he will do well to make 165, 11-00 hence the question mark.
Conclusion: FN could well improve by more than I have allowed but even so it will be very disappointing if Altior does not win by around 5L comfortably.
Altior put up 163 as a novice inexperienced hurdler GM. I agree, had he kept over hurdles would’ve been at least 170 over hurdles now. I agree, Altior will eventually be an outstanding chaser. But he’s only an inexperienced novice chaser at this moment in time – ie not at his peak yet. So surely it’s doubtful that he’s a 170 horse over fences yet, let alone 10 lbs higher?
My approach, Ginger, to horses graduating from one discipline to another is to project an amount of improvement until they prove worse or better at the new discipline than projected. It’s uncanny how many horses turn out to be around 10 better as a chaser than as a hurdler when looking at their highest rating in each discipline. A couple of reasons that might be are that many hurdlers are chasing types and that many horses are (young enough to be) still improving when they switch disciplines.
So if we agree on Altior 170 Hurdles (probably a conservative view) then I would project 180 Chase. With really good horses they are not likely to be pushed by the opposition to show this ability, as Altior hadn’t been before today, until facing other really good horses (at festivals) but nothing Altior had done over fences before today had raised any query against my projected 180.
What did he run to today and what would I project now? It’s always hard to rate a race. FN seemed to run its race, beat DB 5 giving 10. DB had been running to about 148 but may have run a little better today. If we say 153 DB then FN is 168 (his best last time was 170). Altior beat FN 13 getting 5 comfortably so Altior perhaps 176 but the impressive manner suggests 180 is a given. If pushed (by say Douvan) I’d project Altior could do even higher.
Had the same thing with Thistlecrack. 178 winning stayers hurdle easily, if pushed could do 183, 10 of improvement for fences 193 (though coming to fences a bit late). Through the KG he had done nothing to dissuade me from this projection. However, the lack of fluency in both his Cheltenham runs (and in a tougher test than the KG last time) has me now pegging him at 178 (certainly for GC). He has not turned out to make a better chaser due to lack of fluency and the energy being used up recovering from same. As a fluent hurdler could still do 183 in that discipline. Of course Thistlecrack could still hit a perfect round in the GC – then watch out! – but the percentages are against it judged on his 2 course runs.
Can’t wait to see Altior win by half the track.
More or less.
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