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The reason I ask is because it seems to me in recent years the value seekers have been getting stuffed and those punters who mindlessly lump on every mullions hotpot going have been cleaning up.
There seems to be no real reason to expect anything different this year, as it’s clear that once again Mullins holds all the aces.
My question is, will there be any point studying those runners further down in the betting given that cheltenham races seem very predictable now and short priced favs just seem to dominate?
The value for me is in each way accumulators because Mullins favourites inflate the prices of every other runner so much that you get some cracking prices on very good horses.
I’m not expecting these horses to win but say have 5/6 horses in an each way acca and the place returns are very good.Surely the fact that so many of Mullins’ get backed in hard gives that opportunity to pick up some value. Altior was an excellent alternative to the favourite in the Supreme last year.
This year we have a very short priced, long term injury returning, champion hurdle favourite. For me there is value in a couple of the others just behind in the betting. Alternatively a monster lay.
The reason I ask is because it seems to me in recent years the value seekers have been getting stuffed and those punters who mindlessly lump on every mullions hotpot going have been cleaning up.
There seems to be no real reason to expect anything different this year, as it’s clear that once again Mullins holds all the aces.
My question is, will there be any point studying those runners further down in the betting given that cheltenham races seem very predictable now and short priced favs just seem to dominate?
Short priced horses are often the best value, Judge. But that does not mean every short priced horse will be value and does not mean every horse at longer odds should be ignored.
Just back any horse you believe is over-priced (value). If not making an overall profit (over all Cheltenhams* not just one) then your chosen “value” choices were wrong (ie NOT VALUE).
* Even if a good judge, backing value won’t get you profit at every Cheltenham Festival, it’s the overall profit/loss that matters.
Value Is EverythingMy question is, will there be any point studying those runners further down in the betting given that cheltenham races seem very predictable now and short priced favs just seem to dominate?
This isn’t statistically true. 32.34% of horses win at Cheltenham (not just the festival but all year around). This is written in 2012:
The stats from recent meetings show the full extent of the horrors favourite backers often face. Since the 2002 Cheltenham Festival, 4,446 horses have run at the Cheltenham Festival and 254 have started their race as either the favourite, joint favourite or co-favourite. Only 58 of those 254 favourites have actually won which is a strike rate of just 25% and anyone unlucky enough to have backed all of the favourites in that time period will have only won £224.28 from £254 staked.
If we take the years between that article and now the number of winning favoruites has been:
2013 – 8 (28.5%)
2014 – 6 (21.4%)
2015 – 7 (25%)
2016 – 10 (35.7%)Always better looking for value antepost betting, always better looking for mullins value in my opinion aswell, like i stated on another post
Melon is what 4/1 for the supreme he beat a horse by 30 lenghta giving it a stone
Chateau conti beat the same horse 45 lengths giving it the same weight
Both horses headed for the supreme ones 4/1 one is 16/1 (26s on exchange)
Thats where i like to look for value
The reason I ask is because it seems to me in recent years the value seekers have been getting stuffed and those punters who mindlessly lump on every mullions hotpot going have been cleaning up.
There seems to be no real reason to expect anything different this year, as it’s clear that once again Mullins holds all the aces.
My question is, will there be any point studying those runners further down in the betting given that cheltenham races seem very predictable now and short priced favs just seem to dominate?
Anyone blindly following favorites will do their money – even last year with the highest win percentage (35%) of favorites
I also disagree that Mullins holds all the aces and think there is a strong argument to be made that he is in a much ‘weaker’ (for want of a better word) position this year than he was last year or the year before. Lost Giggs horses, no Vautour, no Annie Power, Faugheen could be injured, Djakadam won’t beat Thistlecrack and VVM looked ordinary at Doncaster. Other than Douvan, Yorkhill and Getabird I will be opposing him. I am sure he will mop up a few handicpas but will we see the 7/8 winners we have seen in recent years? I am quitely confident the answer will be no.
Re Value of favourites – I don’t see any point backing Douvan at 1/3 but I took the evens at the start of season. I don’t see any point in backing Altior at 4/5 but I took 3/1 at the end of October. The point I am making is if you bet on these short price favorites, don’t do it on the day when they go off odds on, back them ante post and hope they get there in one piece.
I think the Supreme last year is a good example of value in a race. Min went off 15/8 favorite having won a Maiden Hurdle and the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle. Did 15/8 reflect his chances of winning the race or were the odds this short because the horse was trained by Mullins who had a stranglehold on the Supreme in recent years? There is no doubt Min was exciting, but equally little doubt that Altior had achieved far more and impressed more going into the race and as a result he won. It’s not like Altior was 33’s or 10’s – he went off 4/1 second favorite. A lot of people saw that as great value even though the odds weren’t huge
I think in essence I agree with you Charley. I think this year it doesn’t seem like we have the rock solid bankers we’ve seen in the past. Look at the supreme and I think there’s a horse there called melon who is eminently takeonable, for example.
The value is in the handicaps, no?
Willie Mullins targets march and April that’s it but the past two years he’s had more talent to work with than this year.
But the bookmakers are taking dives left right and centre, Melon is not a 4/1 shot. Anyone backing him now is mental. You have to remember Vautour went of 7/2 and was probably 6/1 after he won a Grade 2. Nowadays any value you get is very early in the season, every bookmaker cut prices for fun in anteposte markets. They haven’t got major liabilities, they just aren’t willing to take any punter on ever.
Also the major markets are very mature. looking for value in them will result in horses that have ran poorly throughout the season therefore their price being bigger. Expecting them to outrun their odds is somewhat optimistic.
Value is subjective but I feel people sometimes don’t go for value they just go for something that’s bigger in price for the sake of it. Some people are more comfortable backing a 12/1 shot hiding behind supposed value because they don’t like backing a 13/8 shot. Even though that 13/8 shot should be 4/6 shot.
Because we are talking about the festival in it’s self I feel if you’re a punter who just bets the day of the race who is
looking for value you will lose in the non handicap races. In those races you have to go where the markets take you and play accordingly, like forecasts and so forth. Western warhorse at 33/1 is an anomaly.I just feel trying to look for something that isn’t there is a fruitless excerice at bookmaker prices. If you can get on on the exchange at fancy prices then the risk is worth the reward.
The value is in the handicaps, no?
Willie Mullins targets march and April that’s it but the past two years he’s had more talent to work with than this year.
But the bookmakers are taking dives left right and centre, Melon is not a 4/1 shot. Anyone backing him now is mental. You have to remember Vautour went of 7/2 and was probably 6/1 after he won a Grade 2. Nowadays any value you get is very early in the season, every bookmaker cut prices for fun in anteposte markets. They haven’t got major liabilities, they just aren’t willing to take any punter on ever.
Also the major markets are very mature. looking for value in them will result in horses that have ran poorly throughout the season therefore their price being bigger. Expecting them to outrun their odds is somewhat optimistic.
Value is subjective but I feel people sometimes don’t go for value they just go for something that’s bigger in price for the sake of it. Some people are more comfortable backing a 12/1 shot hiding behind supposed value because they don’t like backing a 13/8 shot. Even though that 13/8 shot should be 4/6 shot.
Because we are talking about the festival in it’s self I feel if you’re a punter who just bets the day of the race who is
looking for value you will lose in the non handicap races. In those races you have to go where the markets take you and play accordingly, like forecasts and so forth. Western warhorse at 33/1 is an anomaly.I just feel trying to look for something that isn’t there is a fruitless excerice at bookmaker prices. If you can get on on the exchange at fancy prices then the risk is worth the reward.
Good point. There is a time to seek value and time to recognise a good thing so it’s about getting that balance right. What annoys me is when Tipsters like Pricewise say the favourite has by far in the best form and is the likely winner, but will then proceed to back another horse at a larger price because within their quest for value they deem 7/4 too short and an unbackable price. You are spot on Dex. If the horse at 7/4 should be 4/6 then there is a case there is value to be had.
The reason I ask is because it seems to me in recent years the value seekers have been getting stuffed and those punters who mindlessly lump on every mullions hotpot going have been cleaning up.
There seems to be no real reason to expect anything different this year, as it’s clear that once again Mullins holds all the aces.
My question is, will there be any point studying those runners further down in the betting given that cheltenham races seem very predictable now and short priced favs just seem to dominate?
Short priced horses are often the best value, Judge. But that does not mean every short priced horse will be value and does not mean every horse at longer odds should be ignored.
Just back any horse you believe is over-priced (value). If not making an overall profit (over all Cheltenhams* not just one) then your chosen “value” choices were wrong (ie NOT VALUE).
* Even if a good judge, backing value won’t get you profit at every Cheltenham Festival, it’s the overall profit/loss that matters.
yeah I agree mate but often the problem is assessing which of these mullins horses are value. A lot of them don’t have great form but end up gagging up anyway, so surely as a punter it’s extremely difficult to work out if his horses are value or not.
Just back any horse you believe is over-priced (value). If not making an overall profit (over all Cheltenhams* not just one) then your chosen “value” choices were wrong (ie NOT VALUE).
Bullsh!t
You can find plenty of value and not end up in profit taking in the value only.
Likewise you can end up in long term profit backing poor value selections
There are as more poor value winners than good ones and likely many more good value losers than poor ones.
Take your thread Ginge, if you backed all your selections to level stakes please tell me your long term profit/loss.?
Your staking system can mask the profit loss to the value of value.
I think……
For example over a long period of time Punter A study’s the form backs his value selection at 33/1 sees it backed into evens and watches it loss on the line. Punter A is hardly not found value just because it lost
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Just back any horse you believe is over-priced (value). If not making an overall profit (over all Cheltenhams* not just one) then your chosen “value” choices were wrong (ie NOT VALUE).
Bullsh!t
You can find plenty of value and not end up in profit taking in the value only.
Likewise you can end up in long term profit backing poor value selections
There are as more poor value winners than good ones and likely many more good value losers than poor ones.
Take your thread Ginge, if you backed all your selections to level stakes please tell me your long term profit/loss.?
Your staking system can mask the profit loss to the value of value.
I think……For example over a long period of time Punter A study’s the form backs his value selection at 33/1 sees it backed into evens and watches it loss on the line. Punter A is hardly not found value just because it lost
I’ve tried to explain value many many times, Nathan; but you still don’t get it. You’re a lost cause I’m afraid.
Value Is Everything
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