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A fair bit of rain about at Flemington apparently; that may hinder a few of the European runners.
I like Avilius. He tanked his way round in the Bart Cummings at the start of October and beat Jammeh giving her 10 pounds, so he has decent course form. He should handle conditions and the way he travels gives him a bit shout of staying.
Finche looks well handicapped on the best of his European form and could come on bundles for his Australian debut when 3rd behind Runaway in the Geelong Cup.
That Geelong Cup was indeed won by Runaway and I love his draw. He did win over 14 furlongs at Flemington back in April.
The last one to take note of was Ace High who I heard came back all wrong after the Caulfield Cup for what he was very well fancied for. He lost a photo finish in the Grade 1 Australian Derby over 12 furlongs back in April and won the AAMI Victoria Derby at this course last November. He’s by High Chaparral and although the draw is a hindrance, he’s fairly priced.
I’d love to see a British trained winner, but feel there’s value to be had in the ‘home’ team.
Avilius 10/1 (win)
Finche 20/1 (e/w – 7 places)
Runaway 50/1 (e/w – 7 places)
Ace High 50/1 (e/w – 7 places)Just a few little bets for me tonight.
I think Rainbow Heir (25/1) e/w is a bit overpriced in the Turf Sprint. He’s consistent and was impressive in winning the Gulfstream Turf Sprint two starts ago.
I also like Seeking The Soul (15/2) in the Dirt Mile. He won a Grade 1 over 9 furlongs at the course last year.
In the Filly & Mare Turf Mom’s On Strike (66/1) e/w never runs a bad race and is just now finding herself. And she gets blinkers on after make a big move at Kentucky Downs only to get nailed at the line. Three starts back she rallied from 28 lengths back to get beat two lengths by Fourstar Crook in the grade 2 New York Stakes at Belmont and easily won the grade 3 Bewitch Stakes at Keeneland the race before that. She is two-for-two on soft ground and has a win and a second in her two starts at Churchill Downs.
I think Oscar Performance (11/2) will win the Mile easily. He’ll go from the front and none of the Europeans will get close to him.
Wonder Gadot (25/1) e/w looks value in the Distaff given she was just denied in the Kentucky Oaks over C&D.
Hi Happy (100/1) and Channel Maker (16/1) look fancy e/w punts against Enable in the Turf.
And lastly in the Classic I’m going to back Yoshida (12/1) to win and Pavel (50/1) e/w.
I think Go Conquer will either lead them a merry dance and hack up like last year or he’ll be taken on and the race will be set up for Too Many Diamonds. Both stables are in good form.
Go Conquer 10/3
Too Many Diamonds 10/1Sat
16:00 – MIA MISCHIEF
16:38 – RAINBOW HEIR
17:16 – SEEKING THE SOUL
18:04 – MOM’S ON STRIKE
18:46 – LIMOUSINE LIBERAL
19:36 – OSCAR PERFORMANCE
20:16 – WONDER GADOT
20:56 – CHANNEL MAKER
21:44 – CATHOLIC BOY & THUNDER SNOW (NAP)Looking forward to this, hopefully we’ll see plenty of British trained winners.
For tonight:
19:21 – SOLDIER’S CALL
20:00 – NEWSPAPEROFRECORD
20:40 – SERENGETI EMPRESS
21:22 – CURRENT
22:05 – GAME WINNERPrince of Aran runs in the Lexus Stakes on Saturday – if he wins he gets into the Cup.
Doesn’t look like Nakeeta will get in.
I feel Flag Of Honour holds an outstanding chance here although I’m well aware of the danger posed by Stradivarious. Thomas Hobson shouldn’t be discounted if this turns into a slog.
Flag Of Honour 11/4
Savers:
Stradivarius EVS
Thomas Hobson 10/1Going for shocks!
Ascot
13:25 – THOMAS HOBSON
14:00 – LIMATO
15:15 – HAPPILY (NAP)Reserve
14:40 – HYDRANGEA13:25 – Flag Of Honour (Reserve: Thomas Hobson)
14:00 – The Tin Man (Reserve: Harry Angel)
14:40 – Lah Ti Dar (Reserve: Magical)
15:15 – Roaring Lion (Reserve: Happily)
15:50 – Cracksman (Reserve: Crystal Ocean)
16:30 – Raising Sand *NAP* (Reserve: Safe Voyage)Best of luck
Long Distance Cup – Thomas Hobson – 2pts win – 9/1 with Bet365
Balmoral Handicap – Via Via – 2pts win – 14/1 with Bet365
Balmoral Handicap – Humbert – 1pt e/w – 20/1 with William Hill
I see Cross Counter has also picked up an injury, albeit not terrible by the sounds of things.
They’re dropping like flies.
Just added a little bit on Stargazer e/w at 100/1 (7 places). Seems overpriced on potential.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Newspaperofrecord – 2pts win – 3/1 with SkyBet
Breeders Cup Turf Sprint – Stormy Liberal – 2pts win – 10/1 with Corals
Breeders Cup Mile – Oscar Performance – 2pts win – 7/1 with Corals
Breeders Cup Classic – Yoshida – 2pts win – 14/1 with William Hill
Cox Plate – Benbatl – 2pts win – 9/1 with Ladbrokes
