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Wolves! Man, the general line of thinking is that you get a ‘quiet’ all-weather meeting if you’re coming back after a couple of days off. Personally, I find marshmallow pits like this demand much more prep than good quality meetings.
5.45 – C6 6f Apprentices’ Handicap
Decent race for the grade.
Indian Affair is usually quite reliable at this level, although far from a regular winner and drawn fairly wide for his inexperienced rider. He’s opposable as usual, especially back from a break. Round The Island has a good draw and is capable from this mark on his day, but takes plenty of finessing and will be a real tester for William Cox. Similar sentiments for Zavikon and Finley Marsh. Castlerea Tess has had a god year for a low-grade sprinter (improved a long way in the ratings) but has been off for a while and would need to be sharp for this from trap 11. Big Amigo could be a bit of a market springer on his return to an artificial surface (shrewd yard) but he needs luck in running at the best times and is perhaps better at Southwell.
Rapid Ranger is another with a plum draw and his gently progressive profile makes him much more attractive – he doesn’t seem to have reached his limit with the hood applied. Maureb doesn’t often run on all-weather but is an interesting runner – has been holding his own in a higher grade recently and is well-drawn to blast off and scoot around the turn, can be a hard horse to pass. Bottomweight Nutini (often well-backed, even when trained in Ireland) may be just starting to find his niche as a sprinter. He won quite well last time and has trap 1.
I haven’t seen the speed figures yet to compare Nutini and Rapid Ranger, though they seem to have been ‘found’ well enough by the overnight prices. If there are any positive market vibes, I’ll be very tempted to back Maureb at a juicy prices. Some of his turf form is extremely strong and I could see him making all if ready to roll after a couple of months off.
6.15 – C6 5f Classified Stakes
One of the worst races I’ve ever seen. Spitfire Limited has plenty of US dirt blood in her pedigree and looks a likely type to improve for her first start on artificial. Showed a few flickers in maidens and probably worth a poke at 16/1.
6.45 – C6 1m 2f Handicap
Hard to rule anything out of with confidence here, though plenty of pace angles so would edge towards a hold-up horse – this would no doubt be a real Hugh Taylor stomping ground if he wasn’t on holiday. Impossible for mere mortals like me.
7.15 – C7 1m 4f Handicap
Been a while since I’ve traded a C7! I do like to dig deep in races nobody else looks at so will put a bit of extra study in here.
Sadly I can’t really find a good alternative to Raashdy, who seems to be in the groove all of a sudden. Ted’s Brother is the ultimate ball-tickler, loves to flash home from the back but is notoriously hard to win with. I wanted to like Madrasa after a mildly encouraging comeback but the trainer’s form sucks out all enthusiasm – none of his horses have run what you’d call a ‘good race’ since 2013.
7.45 – C4 5f Nursery
I’ll need the speed figures for this. Lots of pace as you’d expect. I’m interested in Wings Of The Rock, who showed blazing early speed (led until final furlong at Royal Ascot) before running huge in another good race. From a good draw on the all-weather (trainer’s bread and butter) perhaps it’ll be a blitz job. Wiff Waff a bit of a funny one for another good yard – well-backed but didn’t run its race on nursery debut when last seen.
8.15 – C6 6f Novice Median Auction Stakes
All eyes on Walk On Walter, who was a bit of a late smash prior to running a bizarre race in a decent maiden at Kempton last time. If he prefers going left-handed (did hang that way) in a hood then he’ll probably do the business. I wouldn’t be piling in at 10/11 though! Midsummer Knight and Mraasel both very capable rivals.
8.45 – C5 7f Handicap
Competitive stuff with a few recent winners in play. I’m inclined to favour Golden Guest at the prices – he has a knack for winning on the AW and is usually value for more, either idling in front or caught wide throughout as he was last time. Rock solid e/w at 8/1.
9.15 – C5 7f Handicap
Second division of race above. Weaker affair. Graphite looks a woeful price overnight and must be a big lay – well-bred (Galileo – Simply Perfect) but track form is poor and opening mark looks plenty stiff enough. No opinion beyond that, plenty of reliable Wolverhampton regulars in play.
Maureb…. wow! That’s straight out of the Hugh Taylor end of tipping. I’ll be keeping a beady eye on this thread from here on in. Congrats!
Linfoot for tomorrow:
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/value-bet:-green-is-the-colour/118766
Unbelievable strike rate Cav and incredible ROI thus far – by your own admission the tide may turn but hats off nonetheless, superb stuff
Have to agree on the ride on Red Marauder (RIP), in that pure blood n’ guts race. Was also the last time I had the winner of the National – I backed 2 horses that day – Smarty (win only) and Red Marauder (E/W). I watched the race in a busy pub and was the only person who even had a sniff of any winnings, and they soon knew about it as I leapt around nearly having a bloody coronary
To my eyes, as he pulled away down the straight today, that was the most Frankel-esque display I’ve seen from any of his progeny yet, although I don’t follow them as closely as some here. From the younger horses, Herculean cetainly seemed to have a good bit of his father in him based on his one run a month back, and happy to have snaffled a bit of 40/1 about him for the Guineas. Anyway, Cracksman proved himself today beyond doubt, and it was great to see (despite having a decent sized bet on Barney Roy who was woeful on the ground).
Some bet on Persuasive that, unbelievable stuff! Have a damn good drink – you’ve earned it, icing on the cake with the extra place too
Wow – only just seen the race as had to pop out for a bit, but didn’t he look like his old man as he pulled away there in the straight? Awesome stuff, didn’t back him (was on Barney Roy, that worked out well lol), but well done all those who did, never in doubt.
Thanks all, I haven’t even seen the race yet, but I’m glad that he
finally got his day in the sun. Well done Brixton too
Just
managed to see Cracksman win his race, impressive, but I’m offski again
so wont see the last one until later.Thanks, and to everyone being a bit kind, considering I said “A place would be a result” and “it’s more of a backing-an-old-friend type bet” hahaha… it’s you BigG who actually called it much like it happened and had proper confidence, I was pretty sure Harry would win (but didn’t back at that price) – anyway, rest of today’s bets were more or less a car crash so nice for it to be a real old fave who kept me (slightly) in the black on the day
The Tin Man looks decisively held by Harry Angel on the last two outings (beaten an average of 5 lengths), at the prices you’d rather throw a few quid at Tasleet or even Brando (who when he does win always seems to win at a good price)… I, as earlier mentioned have a bit EW on Librisa Breeze but if I’m honest a place would be a result on him, it’s more of a backing-an-old-friend type bet. I’m still weighing up whether to go in on Harry Angel or not (or possibly throw into a double with OOSG perhaps) – I think he’s as near a “good thing” as you’ll find in a top class sprint buuuuut it is a sprint after all, and the ground complicates things further.
And of course begs the question – why no Ulysses? Probably just the toll of a succession of hard races?
Barney Roy EW looks like a decent bet now I reckon, even at 4/1, Black Type have 9/2 on offer, I find it impossible to see him not making the frame.
They say a good big ‘un will always beat a good little ‘un. I suspect that’s because the pool from which large horses are drawn is much, much deeper than that from which its rival came and therefore it is more likely that it’s simply a better horse rather than a bigger one.
Clearly no-one told little Apples Jade this statistic before the OLBG at Cheltenham this year as she bravely held off a considerably larger Mullins runner on either side – still gives me goosebumps, pure heart that was!
(clearly this is largely irrelevant to this discussion about flat racing, but sod it
)And just to add I find it very hard to see past the electric Harry Angel for this, but backing shorties in large field sprints doesn’t help with my already troubled sleep, so may have to sit him out this time and fondly remember when I got him for a very tidy price when he decisively reversed the form with Caravaggio.
It looks a hot race Bobby, and a few of my favourite “cliff” horses are luring me
in again. SIGNS OF BLESSING is one I’ve been crowing about for some time, and to be
honest he’s cost me dear. He’s definitely up to taking a race like this, and 16/1
is tempting, but I’m going to leave him out this time. HARRY ANGEL and THE TIN MAN
are bound to be in the mix at the end, but I firmly believe that LIBRISA BREEZE
is up there with the best of them here. He’s a tricky ride, he needs holding up and
he’s found plenty of trouble, which is why his form this year reads 492. It could
easily have been a different story in all of those, and it’s hard to forget his
electric burst of speed last October to win the Challenge Cup at Ascot. That was
over 7f, and he’s won a couple of times over 10f, but he’s such versatile horse
and he’s speedy enough to win over 6f. He’ll need some luck in running, and I hope
Winston doesn’t completely bury him against the rail with nowhere to go, as he has
done in the past. Out the back, with enough room to come round them should do the
trick. He comes with risks, which is why he’s 14/1 with SkyBet, but I
think he’s well worth chancingGood luck with DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT Bobby, definitely overpriced at 50/1
Librisa Breeze is a fabulous horse who’s been very good to me, and I’ll probably have a small play on him for old time’s sake – however, I’m yet to be convinced he’s anywhere near as effective over 6f compared to 7, and worse – after his last run at Newbury where for once he got a clearer passage (smaller field) in a much weaker race than this, it appeared to me that his turn of foot was not quite what it was a year ago as he failed to get his head in front of Massaat, who admittedly has run consistently since and was beaten 3.5 lengths by Limato over 7f a few days back at Newmarket. Still at 16’s Librisa looks a backable EW price and I’d kick myself if he rediscovered last season’s form and I was’t on!
ETA – Winston needs to be nearer the pace than he has been with him in the past – you can’t give Group 1 sprinters too much of a headstart over 6f, unlike a handicap over 7f at Ascot. What a race that was though
Just
)