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Harry Angel is not surprisingly, a warm favourite, with some more than able types just in behind him, the likes of Caravaggio & The Tin Man. Indeed, I think that The Tin Man is a fair price at 13-2, but as per, I will look for a price.
Washington DC is in there, and he always catches my eye, as does his stablemate Alphabet, at a whopping 100’s. Signs of Blessing is another, and he’s surely better than he showed last time.
I’m going to side with another though, and it’s Donjuan Triumphant. First of all, I just hope he goes, as I’m not aware of plans for him at all. He was a very nice winner in his Ayr Gold Cup prep race, and he has to be considered an unlucky horse for Ayr itself, as he came out in the replacement race at Haydock, and ploughed through the mud just to get up. That was a hard gig, but if he’s recovered in time, then I see no reason why he can’t make the frame. He’s a horse on the up, and although he’s 50’s, I’d actually be fairly confident that I can get a run for my money at that price, and I think he has genuine place credentials.
Donjuan Triumphant 50’s Each Way
It looks a hot race Bobby, and a few of my favourite “cliff” horses are luring me
in again. SIGNS OF BLESSING is one I’ve been crowing about for some time, and to be
honest he’s cost me dear. He’s definitely up to taking a race like this, and 16/1
is tempting, but I’m going to leave him out this time. HARRY ANGEL and THE TIN MAN
are bound to be in the mix at the end, but I firmly believe that LIBRISA BREEZE
is up there with the best of them here. He’s a tricky ride, he needs holding up and
he’s found plenty of trouble, which is why his form this year reads 492. It could
easily have been a different story in all of those, and it’s hard to forget his
electric burst of speed last October to win the Challenge Cup at Ascot. That was
over 7f, and he’s won a couple of times over 10f, but he’s such versatile horse
and he’s speedy enough to win over 6f. He’ll need some luck in running, and I hope
Winston doesn’t completely bury him against the rail with nowhere to go, as he has
done in the past. Out the back, with enough room to come round them should do the
trick. He comes with risks, which is why he’s 14/1 with SkyBet, but I
think he’s well worth chancing
Good luck with DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT Bobby, definitely overpriced at 50/1
Good luck Graham with Librisa, would be a nice big race double for the owner. That 14’s isn’t bad at all.
I had to top up on Donjuan at 66’s, just of a couple of quid on the nose.
I’ve had a smaller bet each way on Alphabet at 100’s, as although she might not be good enough to actually land it, should she be allowed to take her chance, I can just see her sneak a place. Unlikely I know, but I do like a couple of her runs this year, and stranger things have happened from this yard.
Alphabet 100’s Each Way
Donjuan Triumphant 50’s Each Way
Donjuan Triumphant 66’s WinIt looks a hot race Bobby, and a few of my favourite “cliff” horses are luring me
in again. SIGNS OF BLESSING is one I’ve been crowing about for some time, and to be
honest he’s cost me dear. He’s definitely up to taking a race like this, and 16/1
is tempting, but I’m going to leave him out this time. HARRY ANGEL and THE TIN MAN
are bound to be in the mix at the end, but I firmly believe that LIBRISA BREEZE
is up there with the best of them here. He’s a tricky ride, he needs holding up and
he’s found plenty of trouble, which is why his form this year reads 492. It could
easily have been a different story in all of those, and it’s hard to forget his
electric burst of speed last October to win the Challenge Cup at Ascot. That was
over 7f, and he’s won a couple of times over 10f, but he’s such versatile horse
and he’s speedy enough to win over 6f. He’ll need some luck in running, and I hope
Winston doesn’t completely bury him against the rail with nowhere to go, as he has
done in the past. Out the back, with enough room to come round them should do the
trick. He comes with risks, which is why he’s 14/1 with SkyBet, but I
think he’s well worth chancingGood luck with DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT Bobby, definitely overpriced at 50/1
Librisa Breeze is a fabulous horse who’s been very good to me, and I’ll probably have a small play on him for old time’s sake – however, I’m yet to be convinced he’s anywhere near as effective over 6f compared to 7, and worse – after his last run at Newbury where for once he got a clearer passage (smaller field) in a much weaker race than this, it appeared to me that his turn of foot was not quite what it was a year ago as he failed to get his head in front of Massaat, who admittedly has run consistently since and was beaten 3.5 lengths by Limato over 7f a few days back at Newmarket. Still at 16’s Librisa looks a backable EW price and I’d kick myself if he rediscovered last season’s form and I was’t on!
ETA – Winston needs to be nearer the pace than he has been with him in the past – you can’t give Group 1 sprinters too much of a headstart over 6f, unlike a handicap over 7f at Ascot. What a race that was though
And just to add I find it very hard to see past the electric Harry Angel for this, but backing shorties in large field sprints doesn’t help with my already troubled sleep, so may have to sit him out this time and fondly remember when I got him for a very tidy price when he decisively reversed the form with Caravaggio.
Yeah Brixton, hard to see past Harry, and was very lucky to be at Haydock to see him last time, one of the best horses I’ve seen in the flesh.
Doesn’t stop me going against him though lol
Quiet reflection at 8/1, one of my favourites from last season if turning up in too form has to be in the mix!
I’ve backed Caravaggio at 4s here. I’ve been a long time fan of the horse since his debut run and was gladly in for his sensational win in the Coventry over course and distance. His run yet again over course and distance at Royal Ascot when beating Harry Angel was impressive.
The latter has overturned the form that day but Caravaggio was beaten a long way out and was clearly not himself.
At the prices, I’ll take a chance that the O’Brien horse is back to his brilliant best on a course he loves and running over his optimum trip (in my opinion).
Caravaggio @ 4/1
I can’t get away from Harry Angel. He’s the horse going the right way and they won’t catch him in my opinion.
Caravaggio won an egg and spoon race last time. 50/1 shot Alphabet was raised 17 lbs for running her stablemate to a length and although given that figure next time (109) for running behind Quiet Reflection, she was nowhere near it the next twice in stronger company. 81 and 99 were here figures there and neither of the earlier races have worked out at all well.
There were reasons why Caravaggio and Quiet Reflection might not have run to (Didn’t need to) their best and it seems much more likely that others were simply overrated for their proximity to the winners. I find it hard to believe that Quiet Reflection’s latest run was (On Racing Post figures) the second best performance of her career, only 2 lbs behind her winning run in the Haydock Sprint Cup. I just feel that is nonsense myself and when last seen she had only run to 98, 20 lbs lower.
Is there also a chance Quiet Reflection might bounce? For me she will be a lay here.
Harry Angel is impossible to oppose for me. He’s beaten Caravaggio, Blue Point, Limato and The Tin Man along the way and is just reaching his best. He has won Group 1 races on Good To Firm and on Heavy. What more could you want? Jam on top?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Has anyone heard anything regarding Brando and why his form has taken a turn? I’m hoping there’s an excuse for his last run in the Foret, because he’s a massive price if at his best.
Kevin Ryan quoted as saying he was “mystified” by Brando’s latest two flops, Degaussed. Was very weak in the market both times so probably had been showing worrying signs at home.
I’ll probably end up betting Caravaggio. I took him on the Gheest (was actually trading that race for the firm – sat bottom price Brando, top price Caravaggio) and, after the initial fistpumping, came away with the impression that I had been very lucky indeed. A bit of a “wrong logic, right result” go.
There really isn’t much between Harry Angel and Caravaggio (when on song). Harry did too much too soon in the Commonwealth Cup but Caravaggio wasn’t suited by the way the July Cup was run. One sectional upgrade each. Harry Angel does deserve to be favourite given that he has had the smoother run through his season without the niggles of his rival, but I think Caravaggio should be closer to 3/1 than the top-price 9/2.
Whenever there is a tactical race ahead where one horse has notable speed and the main rival has notable stamina, I always tend to side with the grinder. In a G1 race on a stiff track with one or maybe two pacemakers in play (Intelligence Cross and Alphabet), you can’t engineer a slowly-run race but you certainly can create a burn-up. Harry Angel still hasn’t proved that he relishes a stiff 6 on a strong pace. He has been well-placed in slowly-run races for both of his G1 wins.
I expect both Alphabet and Intelligence Cross to run as pacemakers, setting a proper strong 6f pace, unlike the July Cup and Haydock Sprint Cup. The strong pace, uphill finish and windy conditions on the day will make it a real test of stamina. Caravaggio broke really well in his last race, so they have solved that problem, and he will sit just behind the pacemakers. I can see the Ballydoyle trio running their own race within the race.
Kevin Ryan quoted as saying he was “mystified” by Brando’s latest two flops, Degaussed. Was very weak in the market both times so probably had been showing worrying signs at home.
I’ll probably end up betting Caravaggio. I took him on the Gheest (was actually trading that race for the firm – sat bottom price Brando, top price Caravaggio) and, after the initial fistpumping, came away with the impression that I had been very lucky indeed. A bit of a “wrong logic, right result” go.
There really isn’t much between Harry Angel and Caravaggio (when on song). Harry did too much too soon in the Commonwealth Cup but Caravaggio wasn’t suited by the way the July Cup was run. One sectional upgrade each. Harry Angel does deserve to be favourite given that he has had the smoother run through his season without the niggles of his rival, but I think Caravaggio should be closer to 3/1 than the top-price 9/2.
Whenever there is a tactical race ahead where one horse has notable speed and the main rival has notable stamina, I always tend to side with the grinder. In a G1 race on a stiff track with one or maybe two pacemakers in play (Intelligence Cross and Alphabet), you can’t engineer a slowly-run race but you certainly can create a burn-up. Harry Angel still hasn’t proved that he relishes a stiff 6 on a strong pace. He has been well-placed in slowly-run races for both of his G1 wins.
Cheers!
I think I must be the only person to think that Caravaggio is as big a myth as Churchill. In my opinion the only reason he’s so short in the betting is because of his connections – his form certainly doesn’t warrant being a 4/1 shot.
The Commonwealth Cup fell apart, in which his only two contenders injured or over-exerted themselves (Blue Point was ‘jarred up’ after Ascot and Harry Angel was too headstrong). His closing sectionals were only as fast as Growl’s in the July Cup, you can forgive his run in France and his win last time out hasn’t really worked out nor is it a good enough performance for him to really compete here. He’s going to have to run a career best to get in the first three, in my opinion, unless the principals bottom out, and I can’t see that happening.
Is it panto season yet?
There really isn’t much between Harry Angel and Caravaggio (when on song).
Oh yes there is!
When both are “on song” Harry is significantly better imo, LS. I’d be a layer of Carravagio under normal conditions and a backer of Harry. However…
Trpuble is the strong headwind forecast will potentially be against front runners (Harry Angel). These are conditions Coolmore love. Put in a spoiler – sorry – “pacemaker”… Ensuring a fast pace in to the headwind and Carravagio comes through to beat an exhausted Harry?
Value Is EverythingIs it panto season yet?
There really isn’t much between Harry Angel and Caravaggio (when on song).
Oh yes there is!
When both are “on song” Harry is significantly better imo, LS. I’d be a layer of Carravagio under normal conditions and a backer of Harry. However…
Trpuble is the strong headwind forecast will potentially be against front runners (Harry Angel). These are conditions Coolmore love. Put in a spoiler – sorry – “pacemaker”… Ensuring a fast pace in to the headwind and Carravagio comes through to beat an exhausted Harry?Or perhaps Ginge, LIBRISA BREEZE who has a great turn of foot, and also has won up to 10f
might take advantage of the conditions and come through with a wet sail
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