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Standard Newcastle fare with the added interest of Shoemark v Egan through the card as the apprentice title battle gets into the nitty gritty.
4.40 – 1m 4f C5 Fillies’ Handicap
Tricky. I’m inclined to edge towards Snowy Winter, who is a little flaky but still unexposed and easily forgiven her last run. She can travel like a horse who belongs in a grade or two higher than this. The lack of confirmed pace in the race would be a plus point for her. Still, Alfa Queen or Golden Set could well try new tactics so it’s hard to be bullish about that. Not a betting race for me.
5.10 – 1m 2f C5 Handicap
Lots of jaded old scuttlers here. Intriguing little race though. You could make a case for five or six of them. Archipeligo is a good starting point with his excellent course record and good speed figures – he’s likely to run his race and is a big place player near the top of the weights. Likewise My Brother Mike (who I slightly favour of the pair), with his latest Newcastle win very good on the clock and his Lingfield run quite tidy as well. Handicap newcomers Chartbuster and Hediddodinthe are both potentially interesting but I wonder if Chartbuster will prefer slightly further and you’d want a market steer for the Guest project. Infamous Lawman is not totally ruled out either although it seems like David O’Meara is still groping around trying to find the ideal conditions for his horse. Then of course there’s the Irish raider Konig Hall – his only British run this season was very solid on the clock and his recent unlucky loss to Six Silver Lane is really strong form for the grade. I have written all of this before seeing any prices, so let’s see if there are any bets…
Survey says: I’d probably bet Konig Hall if you made me have a go at the current prices. Would need 10/1+ to draw me out for more than monopoly money in the morning though.
5.40 – 1m 2f C5 Handicap
Perhaps an easier race to dissect than the first division. Again, I haven’t looked at the prices but I expect that the wallahs have made The Eagle’s Nest favourite. He is with a good yard, caught the eye last time and looks a potential improver. Still, he was becoming disappointing before his latest start (first after being gelded) and you’re trusting him to pick up the thread now. Feels like it might pay to look for alternatives. Somnambulist has been on the fringes in this grade for a while but would be vulnerable to anything with a bit in hand, while Mr C has good form figures but has never done much on the clock. I expect a few will pick out Steccando too, but the yard is a worry for me with Sally Haynes still not really convincing me as a trainer. I’m really drawn to Bollihope. Richard Guest is going well right now, his horse has done some big speed figures and goes particularly well at Newcastle. He missed a couple of months mid-season but should be much sharper for his comeback. Looks like the price is already disappearing but there is still a bit of 11/2 around if you have a Betfred account.
6.15 – 1m C4 Nursery
I put this race up before I left the office and I’m glad the prices haven’t really changed – always a bit grim looking back at a 4 runner race three hours later if the market has totally flipped! Market looks right with no standout bets.
6.45 – 7f C6 2yo Novice Auction Stakes
Egan and Shoemark both on big contenders here. Market seems to have it right with Shoemark and Line House fully entitled to beat Another Day Of Sun. I’m not sure this speed test will be what Mametz Wood ultiamtely wants. Sadly doesn’t look like there will be a bet here.
7.15 – 1m C5 Handicap
Probably a straight fight between Kreb’s Cycle and Acrux. Kreb’s Cycle achieved a huge amount for a lowly handicap according to the stopwatch when second last time, while Acrux was a terribly unlucky loser in a similar race. The figures say Kreb’s Cycle is the pick between the two – 7/2 worth taking. Ex-Godolphin Never A Word a bit of a funky one at a big price if any support.
7.45 – 7f C6 Handicap
Plenty of deadwood but a few lurkers too. Best to look towards the top of the weights with Gun Case likely to take revenge on Intiwin after his unlucky reverse last time. Gun Case conceded first run there and made up huge amounts of ground. His record at Newcastle is exceptional. Captain Hawk is not one to trust, but perhaps Zenovia could be a funny one at a big price on second start for Archie Watson. Still some juice in 7/2 about the jolly imo.
8.15 – 6f C6 Handicap
Perfect Symphony a solid enough fav. 11/2 right on the borderline of a bettable price for me but I’ll probably leave it alone.
What a superhero Take Cover is, absolutely smitten with this old horse. I’d had a fair day outside the main bets, going back on my on advice with an in-running bet at Newcastle and an on-the-off lay at Wincanton. Was still feeling gloomy though – down overall in the last five days and annoyed to see Roll The Dough run such a limp race after crushing the SP.
When you need a winner, there’s always Take Cover. He has done that for me twice this season – popped up when I was in a bit of a slump and turned it around for me.
Only just starting to look at tomorrow’s cards so this could be a late night!
Most of it is too trappy for me in the UK tomorrow, but Fairyhouse looks easier with plenty of recent form and fitness to go on.
1.35 Fairy – Tuamhain 12/1 ew
3.40 Fairy – Don’t Quit 40/1 e/w
4.35 Rasen – Ready Token 5/1Also on Bateel, Caravaggio, Beat The Bank, The Grape Escape and Desert Encounter on Champions Day.
Two NRs and a loser yesterday – at least I got a few points in Bob’s competition I suppose! Small mercies.
I’ve backed Listen To The Man 9/4, Breath Of Blighty 14/1 ew, Muqarred 10/1 ew and Bye Bye Baby 2.98 today. Small e/w Lucky 15 (lesser prices) for a bit of sport too. I’ve crushed quite a few SPs lately so probably need to throw a few of those in to soften up my accounts this week.
Nice to book a fair winning day with Muqarred today. The ‘Speightstowns at Southwell’ angle still going strong.
I’m struggling to focus on the two flat cards but sadly couldn’t see any bets on tomorrow’s Plumpton card. Still a trappy time of year with horses coming back from their summer breaks. I’ll be watching all the races and making notes for the year ahead, though. A few tracker horses are in action, namely Larry and Cheltenham Du Vaige. Couldn’t bet either on trust though.
I’ll have another look at the flat in the morning, particularly Ponty. Maybe it’ll all be clearer after a good night’s sleep.
No shortage of interesting races at Exeter tomorrow but it’s such a trappy time of year that I’ll be happy to sit on my hands and watch. Yarmouth is ‘my’ meeting. The only standout bet for me at the overnight prices is Le Menege Enchante in the lucky last. I know – it’s a bit of a goat with two ways of running, but has been running well in much higher grade this year and is handicapped to beat this lot if on song. 12/1 pretty fair imo, think there’s more than enough juice in that price to factor in the chance of a sour run.
Also sticking with the pair I backed at Fairyhouse at the weekend now the meeting has been rescheduled.
1.45 – Tuamhain 14/1 ew
3.45 – Don’t Quit 25/1 ewNewcastle and Kempton would also be interesting cards if I was in the mood but for some reason I seem to be struggling to concentrate at the moment. You can’t really bet at those tracks without getting properly immersed for at least 45 mins of study per race.
Mighty run from Cheltenam De Vaige over an inadequate trip today, by the way. He was almost too eyecatching and probably won’t be much of a price next time. :(
Pretty much breakeven yesterday – the story of my punting in the last week or two!
I’ve been feeling really tired in the last few days so I went to bet at 19:30 last night. Hopefully that helps me to focus on the form study a bit better. I haven’t really looked at anything but Worcester yet.
1.35 Worcester – Dawnieriver
2.45 Worcester – Solomn Grundy
3.55 Worcester – Big Penny
5.40 Worcester – Molly ChildersYikes, those stunk the place out yesterday.
Had one bet today but it’s already a non-runner. :)
I didn’t have any bets today, just finding it really hard to put in the amount of study I need to feel confident enough to play in the last couple of days. I’m back at work looking after Wolverhampton tomorrow and Aintree on Sunday so will try to put the work in on those.
Wolverhampton race-by-race thoughts coming up.
At the ‘aways’, I’ll be backing The Clock Leary at Kelso and laying Singlefarmpayment if his price gets silly. The market seems to have the good races about right at Cheltenham.
Wolves! Man, the general line of thinking is that you get a ‘quiet’ all-weather meeting if you’re coming back after a couple of days off. Personally, I find marshmallow pits like this demand much more prep than good quality meetings.
5.45 – C6 6f Apprentices’ Handicap
Decent race for the grade.
Indian Affair is usually quite reliable at this level, although far from a regular winner and drawn fairly wide for his inexperienced rider. He’s opposable as usual, especially back from a break. Round The Island has a good draw and is capable from this mark on his day, but takes plenty of finessing and will be a real tester for William Cox. Similar sentiments for Zavikon and Finley Marsh. Castlerea Tess has had a god year for a low-grade sprinter (improved a long way in the ratings) but has been off for a while and would need to be sharp for this from trap 11. Big Amigo could be a bit of a market springer on his return to an artificial surface (shrewd yard) but he needs luck in running at the best times and is perhaps better at Southwell.
Rapid Ranger is another with a plum draw and his gently progressive profile makes him much more attractive – he doesn’t seem to have reached his limit with the hood applied. Maureb doesn’t often run on all-weather but is an interesting runner – has been holding his own in a higher grade recently and is well-drawn to blast off and scoot around the turn, can be a hard horse to pass. Bottomweight Nutini (often well-backed, even when trained in Ireland) may be just starting to find his niche as a sprinter. He won quite well last time and has trap 1.
I haven’t seen the speed figures yet to compare Nutini and Rapid Ranger, though they seem to have been ‘found’ well enough by the overnight prices. If there are any positive market vibes, I’ll be very tempted to back Maureb at a juicy prices. Some of his turf form is extremely strong and I could see him making all if ready to roll after a couple of months off.
6.15 – C6 5f Classified Stakes
One of the worst races I’ve ever seen. Spitfire Limited has plenty of US dirt blood in her pedigree and looks a likely type to improve for her first start on artificial. Showed a few flickers in maidens and probably worth a poke at 16/1.
6.45 – C6 1m 2f Handicap
Hard to rule anything out of with confidence here, though plenty of pace angles so would edge towards a hold-up horse – this would no doubt be a real Hugh Taylor stomping ground if he wasn’t on holiday. Impossible for mere mortals like me.
7.15 – C7 1m 4f Handicap
Been a while since I’ve traded a C7! I do like to dig deep in races nobody else looks at so will put a bit of extra study in here.
Sadly I can’t really find a good alternative to Raashdy, who seems to be in the groove all of a sudden. Ted’s Brother is the ultimate ball-tickler, loves to flash home from the back but is notoriously hard to win with. I wanted to like Madrasa after a mildly encouraging comeback but the trainer’s form sucks out all enthusiasm – none of his horses have run what you’d call a ‘good race’ since 2013.
7.45 – C4 5f Nursery
I’ll need the speed figures for this. Lots of pace as you’d expect. I’m interested in Wings Of The Rock, who showed blazing early speed (led until final furlong at Royal Ascot) before running huge in another good race. From a good draw on the all-weather (trainer’s bread and butter) perhaps it’ll be a blitz job. Wiff Waff a bit of a funny one for another good yard – well-backed but didn’t run its race on nursery debut when last seen.
8.15 – C6 6f Novice Median Auction Stakes
All eyes on Walk On Walter, who was a bit of a late smash prior to running a bizarre race in a decent maiden at Kempton last time. If he prefers going left-handed (did hang that way) in a hood then he’ll probably do the business. I wouldn’t be piling in at 10/11 though! Midsummer Knight and Mraasel both very capable rivals.
8.45 – C5 7f Handicap
Competitive stuff with a few recent winners in play. I’m inclined to favour Golden Guest at the prices – he has a knack for winning on the AW and is usually value for more, either idling in front or caught wide throughout as he was last time. Rock solid e/w at 8/1.
9.15 – C5 7f Handicap
Second division of race above. Weaker affair. Graphite looks a woeful price overnight and must be a big lay – well-bred (Galileo – Simply Perfect) but track form is poor and opening mark looks plenty stiff enough. No opinion beyond that, plenty of reliable Wolverhampton regulars in play.
Wolves! Man, the general line of thinking is that you get a ‘quiet’ all-weather meeting if you’re coming back after a couple of days off. Personally, I find marshmallow pits like this demand much more prep than good quality meetings.
5.45 – C6 6f Apprentices’ Handicap
Decent race for the grade.
Indian Affair is usually quite reliable at this level, although far from a regular winner and drawn fairly wide for his inexperienced rider. He’s opposable as usual, especially back from a break. Round The Island has a good draw and is capable from this mark on his day, but takes plenty of finessing and will be a real tester for William Cox. Similar sentiments for Zavikon and Finley Marsh. Castlerea Tess has had a god year for a low-grade sprinter (improved a long way in the ratings) but has been off for a while and would need to be sharp for this from trap 11. Big Amigo could be a bit of a market springer on his return to an artificial surface (shrewd yard) but he needs luck in running at the best times and is perhaps better at Southwell.
Rapid Ranger is another with a plum draw and his gently progressive profile makes him much more attractive – he doesn’t seem to have reached his limit with the hood applied. Maureb doesn’t often run on all-weather but is an interesting runner – has been holding his own in a higher grade recently and is well-drawn to blast off and scoot around the turn, can be a hard horse to pass. Bottomweight Nutini (often well-backed, even when trained in Ireland) may be just starting to find his niche as a sprinter. He won quite well last time and has trap 1.
I haven’t seen the speed figures yet to compare Nutini and Rapid Ranger, though they seem to have been ‘found’ well enough by the overnight prices. If there are any positive market vibes, I’ll be very tempted to back Maureb at a juicy prices. Some of his turf form is extremely strong and I could see him making all if ready to roll after a couple of months off.
6.15 – C6 5f Classified Stakes
One of the worst races I’ve ever seen. Spitfire Limited has plenty of US dirt blood in her pedigree and looks a likely type to improve for her first start on artificial. Showed a few flickers in maidens and probably worth a poke at 16/1.
6.45 – C6 1m 2f Handicap
Hard to rule anything out of with confidence here, though plenty of pace angles so would edge towards a hold-up horse – this would no doubt be a real Hugh Taylor stomping ground if he wasn’t on holiday. Impossible for mere mortals like me.
7.15 – C7 1m 4f Handicap
Been a while since I’ve traded a C7! I do like to dig deep in races nobody else looks at so will put a bit of extra study in here.
Sadly I can’t really find a good alternative to Raashdy, who seems to be in the groove all of a sudden. Ted’s Brother is the ultimate ball-tickler, loves to flash home from the back but is notoriously hard to win with. I wanted to like Madrasa after a mildly encouraging comeback but the trainer’s form sucks out all enthusiasm – none of his horses have run what you’d call a ‘good race’ since 2013.
7.45 – C4 5f Nursery
I’ll need the speed figures for this. Lots of pace as you’d expect. I’m interested in Wings Of The Rock, who showed blazing early speed (led until final furlong at Royal Ascot) before running huge in another good race. From a good draw on the all-weather (trainer’s bread and butter) perhaps it’ll be a blitz job. Wiff Waff a bit of a funny one for another good yard – well-backed but didn’t run its race on nursery debut when last seen.
8.15 – C6 6f Novice Median Auction Stakes
All eyes on Walk On Walter, who was a bit of a late smash prior to running a bizarre race in a decent maiden at Kempton last time. If he prefers going left-handed (did hang that way) in a hood then he’ll probably do the business. I wouldn’t be piling in at 10/11 though! Midsummer Knight and Mraasel both very capable rivals.
8.45 – C5 7f Handicap
Competitive stuff with a few recent winners in play. I’m inclined to favour Golden Guest at the prices – he has a knack for winning on the AW and is usually value for more, either idling in front or caught wide throughout as he was last time. Rock solid e/w at 8/1.
9.15 – C5 7f Handicap
Second division of race above. Weaker affair. Graphite looks a woeful price overnight and must be a big lay – well-bred (Galileo – Simply Perfect) but track form is poor and opening mark looks plenty stiff enough. No opinion beyond that, plenty of reliable Wolverhampton regulars in play.
Maureb…. wow! That’s straight out of the Hugh Taylor end of tipping. I’ll be keeping a beady eye on this thread from here on in. Congrats!
Cheers BrixtonBoy – man I needed a winner like that after a tough week. Sadly I didn’t have anything more than a small bet on it, was hoping to see a little bit of a market support. Really happy with the place returns from Spitfire Limited at a big price and Raashdy’s win too.
I’m on Aintree duty tomorrow and absolutely delighted about it. Old Roan day is significant for me – it was the scene of my first date with my wife seven years ago. We watched Monet’s Garden in his brilliant swansong win.
12:40 – 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle
My view is that the market has this wrong. I don’t really rate Global Citizen and On The Blind Side looks very skinny on the strength of a PTP win that couldn’t have worked out much worse. If running for a less powerful yard, he might be 12/1. Skelton won this last year with Robin Roe and has been quite positive about New Quay, while Enniscoffey Oscar should improve from his comeback and Perfect Harmony’s bumper form looks very good indeed. Can’t really recommend a bet unless you want to do a bit of dutching.
1.15 – 3m Conditional Jocks’ Handicap Hurdle
Plenty of deadwood. I’ll probably end up having a small bet on Vertigo here – I’m convinced three miles on good ground is exactly what he wants. A patchy profile and Blair Campbell temper enthusiasm a little, but guaranteed fitness is on his side. Just a small one.
1.50 – 3m 1f Veterans’ Handicap Chase
A corking race. The Romford Pele is obviously the funny one – Rebecca Curtis to Tom George is a major upgrade and he could find major improvement. It’s all a bit guessy though, I can’t see any great bets at the prices. Saying that, I’m not sure I’d be laying 25/1 about Mister First.
2.25 – 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
Again, Nicky Henderson has the favourite but Burbank has plenty of live opposition here. Sneaky Feeling and Theligny are both well ahead of their marks.
3.00 – Old Roan Limited Handicap Chase (G2)
A good renewal. Cloudy Dream is the most interesting horse for the future here but the Jefferson horses have all been needing their first runs this year. I also like Shantou Village as a horse but I’m not sure this will really be his bag – Aintree’s stiff fences come thick and fast and I can see him making a jolting mistake. At the prices, I like the proven fitness of Ballybolley and last year’s winner Third Intention.
3.35 – 3m Novices Limited Handicap Chase
Trappy. I know which one Cav would bet. Happy to just watch and learn. Will take a good effort from one of the chasing newcomers to beat Lovely Job’s experience.
4.10 – 2m 1f Mares’ Bumper
Typically difficult. Ben Pauling has been buzzing about Cangodemayo in One Jump Ahead and other preview books and thinks this could be the best mare he has ever trained. Saying that, I can’t think of many good Pauling mares for the last few years! Another race to watch and rewatch.
Thanks VTC, although I didn’t have anything on him overnight. I didn’t get much right on that card to be honest – couldn’t have had Smad Place or the novice winner and didn’t get much of a run from Vertigo. For what it’s worth, I was dead against Vintage Clouds too!
I wish I could share some of the things I see as a trader. Some very strange things happened with that veterans chase at about 11:30. Maybe when I’m 70 and safely retired I’ll write a book on that sort of thing!
I had to leave work early yesterday – my wife had gone to hospital after a bit of a scare. We’re pretty sure everything is ok but they’re still keeping an eye on her today. As a result, I haven’t really had a look at any of today’s races. I did look at the pair of Ayr C4s before I rushed away. I’ll have to bet Well Above Par in the 2.40. It’s currently 7/1 and I made it 11/4 when I was pricing it up!
I’m looking after Bangor tomorrow. Hopefully everything is back to normal by this evening so I can have a good look.
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