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Sorry to hear that Soldier, hope everything is ok…
Bangor is my hometown course, but I have a stinking record there-I doubt I’d be having a bet but the McManus horses in the first two interest me going forward, especially with Geraghty making the trip over to ride them…
Sounds like she is fine, thanks guys. Her face went all droopy and numb on one side yesterday morning and obviously the first thing you think of is a stroke. She’s only 27 though. She has had the works in the last 24 hours – CT scans, MRI, ECG etc. Luckily all of those results came back clear so they’re pretty sure it was just a trapped nerve. All seems ok now. :)
Yeah, I like Bangor, Joliff. I haven’t quite sussed it out yet but I’m starting to think front-runners do especially well there. Seems like a lot of them just don’t come back once they start jumping well and nipping around the turns. I agree 100% about the McManus horses.
Best bet on the card in the last race imo.
12.55 – 2m 1/2f Novices’ Hurdle
All about Dostal Phil. All of the preview books say this will be one of the leading lights this year, whereas the Henderson horse hardly gets a mention in anything the trainer has published. Hopefully we see something special.
1.25 – 2m 4 1/2f Novices’ Chase
No reason for Modus not to be trying on chasing debut as he is far enough clear of Gibralfaro on ratings. Modus was not 100% straightforward over hurdles so I guess I won’t be running too scared at the skinny market price when I’m at my desk tomorrow. Can’t really take a position as a punter though.
2.00 – 2m 7f C4 Handicap Hurdle
Tricky race with no convincing options. Walter Oneeightone attracted significant support last time and moved ok before stopping quickly three-out. I’ve seen enough Jonjo handicappers to know not to give up if they take two or three handicaps to find their feet. Not writing this one off yet in first time tonguetie.
2.30 – 2m 1 1/2f C4 Handicap Chase
All sorts of pace on here with The Yank, Deise Vu and Alpine Secret all in play. None of the hold-up options are particularly solid with wellbeing or fitness in question. Deise Vu really chiselled away gamely for his win last time (runner-up has won since) so I guess he is the most solid option. Probably not a betting race though.
3.05 – 2m 4f C4 Handicap HurdleA very good competitive race for a Tuesday at Bangor. I’m inclined to think Cave Top and Milan Of Crystal are vulnerable in stronger races than their recent wins. Venetia Williams has caught me out in the early going this season by firing in a couple of impressive first-time-out winners, so I wonder if Grand Turina will be similarly well cranked for this. Tanarpino is down to a good mark and is the other one who catches my eye. I’ll probably bet one or the other – Grand Turina if I see a good speed figure when I check them tomorrow, Tanarpino if not.
3.35 – 2m BumperThese two divisions are sponsored by Oliver Greenall, so will watch out for his runners. Could be a hot bumper. Big word around for the Henderson fav Haul Away but the King and Twiston-Davies newcomers make plenty of appeal on pedigree too.
4.10 – 2m Bumper
More of a betting race than the other division. I usually like betting the Twiston-Davies silks in bumpers because he does like to win a race first before picking up an owner for many of his horses. Ballygomartin is quite stoutly bred though. Cherokee Prince ran well in this race last year for a shrewd Irish yard and is among the obvious contenders, likewise the well-bred Euxton Lane and Nestor Park. The one that catches my eye is Katy Price’s Johnny Yuma. Admittedly it took this horse three tries to win a PTP but he is very speedily bred and may have had stamina issues at 3m – by Alfred Nobel and related to Go Native. Now in a bumper on a sharpish track, I think we might see a much improved effort. As I said, he doesn’t lack anything in experience after three racecourse spins and the capable trainer has won a bumper in the last month. Bettable at 16/1.
Glad to hear MrsLS is OK. I had a friend who woke up with Bell’s palsy once when she was in her early 20s. First she knew of it was when she was trying to eat breakfast and couldn’t understand why the cornflakes kept falling out. It resolved completely by itself (took a while) and never recurred. Like you she said it was pretty damn scary till they worked out everything was OK.
Good luck today, a great time of year when new horses are stepping onto the courses every day….
Wow, yes that does sound very similar Grassy. Credit to the hospital though – they left no stone unturned.
A good day today with Walter Oneeightone a very nice winner at a juicy prices. A few more winners today to add some weight to the Bangor pace bias theory too. Decent results for the firm too with Dostal Phil turned over and plenty of big priced winners on the card.
I’m on the late shift tomorrow but I had a spin through the C4s at Fakenham. I think Schap is a bettable price in the opener.
I’m on Linenhall, Mercian Prince, Delusionsofgrandeur, Metkaif and Watersmeet today. May throw in a cheap lay on Ballyoptic this afternoon too.
A solid day, slightly ahead but hardly one for the ages. I’ve got Dundalk tomorrow and have been putting it off all day, so it could be a late night for me. More fool the one who doesn’t study up for that card.
5.30 – 5f Maiden
A weak event. Patrice’s Wish fetched £30,000 at the breeze-ups and is related to some all-weather 2yo winners. He’ll probably have a bit of knowhow…but where has he been lately? Not done any favours by the draw either. Can’t really advise a bet.
6.00 – 45-65 5f Handicap
All about the draw as usual in these Dundalk dashes. It’s hard to make a convincing case for any of these. Pillar is solid from stall 1 but creeping up the weights and vulnerable to anything with a few lbs in hand. Spartan’s Queen and Bambari would be interesting if the market spoke for them. Peace Mission also one of the major form claimants but saddled with stall 10.
6.30 – 1m Claimer
Reckless Lad has the best of the weight conditions but is notoriously hard to win with. Seanie is back in good heart and ran to a mark in the high 70s when winning a handicap last time. He has a good draw and looks a worthy favourite. Ambiguity could be a bit of a funky one if supported but he has gone the wrong way lately.
7.00 – 1m Maiden
Dermot Weld was in the midst of a stable virus when Light Laughter last ran for him. Her 2yo form is pretty solid and she isn’t written off here. Hasn’t been missed by the market at all though. Harmonyofthestars also mildly interesting.
7.30 – 7f Handicap
After studying the form, I wanted to bet DK Travel but there really isn’t much juice in his price. Should do much better back at Dundalk away from soft ground. Hope his 10lb claimer can do the weight!
8.00 – 7f Handicap
Notorious ‘plot horse’ Burren View Lady is pretty solid in her bid for a quick double but there is a big danger in the shape of Latchet, who ran a stormer from out of the weights in a better race on AW debut. Big chance if able to back that up. Gah – again the market has seen it!
8.30 – 6f Handicap
The joint-best race of the night, good quality horses in action here. Again, I can’t really offer much more than the market is telling us. Alfredo Arcano is the most likely one to be ahead of his mark but he is a bit of a ball-tickler.
9.00 – 1m 4f Handicap
Another good race on ratings but not many of these are in good form. Can Political Policy respond now Shake The Bucket is the outright leader in wins at Dundalk? Hard to be dogmatic about anything.
Disappointingly, I think I’ll have to settle for no bets on the card.
Wetherby for me today. Almost overslept so no detailed post. Backing Purcell’s Bridge, Delgany Demon, Boyhood, Cue Card, Colin’s Sister, Fountains Windfall and Born Survivor. Laying La Bague Au Roi if price gets silly.
A good day today, mainly thanks to Colin’s Sister but with a nice cameo from Born Survivor.
Cork post to follow…
1.05 – Maiden Hurdle
Pointers for Cracking Smart on offer here with his recent victim Shady Operator looking to do his bit for the form. Of his main rivals, Daybreak Boy would prefer better ground, Castlebrook will probably want further, Jetez’s stable are under a cloud and the bare form of Kirwan’s Lane’s bumper will need improvement. Fav looks bang solid to me.
1.40 – 3m Listed Novices’ Hurdle
Interesting. A bit of monkey business with the Mullins pair with Ruby surprisingly on Fabulous Saga again instead of jumping ship to Robin Des Foret, who tanked him last time and looks the stronger stayer. Cracking Smart is the one with potential to be better than the 140s though. Again, the market seems to have this just right.
2.10 – 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
Not the greatest race on the ratings but three or four thriving progressive types here. Granny Biddy is rightly the overnight fav – she won with plenty in hand last time (strong race for the grade) and might well be able to defy the hike. Good old Broder also demads respect. The Tony Martin horse looks plenty short enough considering the soft ground. No bets at the prices.
2.40 – 2m 4f G3 Novices’ Chase
Again, hard to fault the overnight market with Jury Duty rightly fav on the strength of an impressive chasing debut and last season’s Pertemps form, which looks red hot. Bamako Moriviere has already run to around 140 over fences, though a bit more will be needed if Jury Duty is at his best.
3.15 – Cork National
Hard to really get stuck in with the two switchers at the top of the market. Still, 20/1 Raz De Maree feels a bit dismissive. He hasn’t done anything wrong since second in the Welsh National from this mark (saddle slipped, Grand National, over the top, Brian Coopered) and is sure to be primed for a race he has won twice. Might have a little each-way tickle.
3.45 – 2m Handicap Chase
Slemish is a real chaser on looks and interesting if attracting money on his handicap debut (some strong hurdles form), although I don’t really associate Jim Dreaper with first-time-out winners. Otherwise, All The Chimneys looks the most solid option. He usually attracts market support and is still handicapped to make a big impact over fences after a couple of hurdles preps.
4.20 – 2m Bumper
Again, a good bit of pricing from the wallahs at large. Biddy The Boss’ bumper form is working out nicely and she does look like more of a solid bet than Lackaneen Leader. I would be a bit shorter about Le Hachette for a yard going well – she was just too green to show her best in two goes over hurdles and may do better with no jumping to do. Might be worth a ‘4 places’ poke on the machine at a fair price.
Happy Days with Colin’s Sister, nice one.
Was going to do my Sunday bets tonight, but I can’t get Oddschecker to work. Is is just me, or is there a problem. Absolute shambles of a site anyway, but has been dire this weekend, even by their standards.
PS, I’ll definitely be on Le Hachette.
Thanks guys. I’ve had some good meetings lately – Aintree last Sunday then Wetherby and Cork at the weekend.
I didn’t back anything today, had a day off and got some things done. I was tempted by a couple but glad I didn’t get involved – think Stepover would have tilted me big time.
Redcar for me tomorrow, which will demand plenty of study.
It could be quite testing at Redcar tomorrow with rain due to fall on top of soft ground.
12:20 – 7f 2yo Novice Stakes
Intriguing to see what the market makes of the newcomers, though this will be a tough introduction on the ground against at least two solid horses with form. Knighted ran well in a race that has worked out nicely last time – winner has gone on to score at Listed level, 2nd unlucky not to win at Kempton. Then again, Up Sticks And Go is also proven in the conditions and has run to a similar level of form in handicaps. Both are bred to get this trip and finish their races well. Without the vibes about the newbies (in particular Diplomacy but also Naval Officer) in the market yet, I’m happy to sit on my hands. Speed figures will be interesting to consult tomorrow too. Mametz Wood possibly a place-lay on the ground with his form some way behind the other two market leaders.
12:50 – 1m Seller
I like the look of this. Catastrophe is the clear form pick and one of the only horses in any sort of form but he is a known dog and doesn’t find much under pressure. It’s so hard to land on any of the others though. Perhaps Italian Beauty is worth chancing – has backclass and ran well on first start for a canny yard but not much form shown since. Perhaps headgear is the answer. Too guessy to bet on, sadly.
1.20 – 7f C5 Handicap
Happy to oppose the front of the market here, especially Vive Le Difference, who looks like a woeful favourite. I thought Stubytuesday and Edgar Allen Poe were quite solid but I’m going to throw a couple of quid (literally £1 e/w!) at Taskeen. He was gambled-on a few starts back but got no sort of run when the pace quickened and was eased off by the rider in the end. He is an inconsistent sort and understandably 50/1 but I’m willing to take a small chance. He is proven on this sort of surface, should strip fitter for his recent return (had mini break mid-season) and looks interesting here.
1.50 – 1m 2f C3 HandicapI wasn’t expecting a race as good as this to be on this card. I like what I see in the market here. Canberra Cliffs is all the price – a 3yo against the established handicappers late in the season is something I’d usually like. Still, her latest two wins were in a weak race at Bath and with the benefit of Simon Walker in an amateurs race. I don’t like Swift Emperor at all on the ground and there must be a good chance it will be a NR. Silvery Moon obviously has his chance again and remains well-treated, but he took plenty of tries to cash in on that this season. The one I really like is Awake My Soul, who always runs really well on soft ground and remains on a very fair handicap mark. His form has been achieved in better races to many of these and his attitude counts for plenty too. Fair bet at 7/1 IMO.
2.20 – 1m 2f ClaimerWow. A claimer and a seller on the same card. I must be in dreamland. Unlike the seller, this is definitely a betting race. Coroboree lost his form badly for Dan Skelton with his attitude becoming a major drawback – carries his head awkwardly and doesn’t look like one to trust. Being chucked into a seller is a very bad sign. 69-rated Outback Blue is also a renowned faintheart and takes a lot of convincing to even get racing nowadays. You’ve got to be betting Restive at 3/1. The ground may be on the soft side but this horse is a trier and ran as well as could be expected in a strong claimer last time. If he can hang in there with Coroboree, he should be able to worry him out of it. The excellent Jamie Gormley a big plus too.
2.55 – C6 1m 6f Handicap
Four Kingdoms was a real speed figures pick at Yarmouth two starts ago but made hard enough work of it at Kempton last time. A young claimer takes over this time and perhaps the hard races will take their toll. Apalis could be interesting if attracting support, likewise Dance With Kate.
3.25 – C6 1m 6f Handicap
Market vibes likely to tell the story here. Ingleby Hollow has a superb course record but was a rancid drifter and ran poorly last time out. Dakota City was also oddly weak in the market on first start for Olly Murphy (Jamie Codd booked) last time but ran well. Unblinking has often shaped like he might win a race and Becky The Thatcher would be interesting on her hurdles form if stepping up a long way from that dire comeback run. Not a race to be betting in and probably a minefield for me!
3.55 – C6 5f HandicapThe last race of the season at Redcar. Typically impossible race of its type and happy to leave it alone.
Great stuff with Awake My Soul LS3 – proper crushed the SP there. Had a bit on that myself purely due to reading this thread last night. Cheers
Haha thanks BrixtonBoy. You’re right. That’s going to look really ugly on my account now! Gutted with Restive too, also smashed into fav and beat the two ‘main dangers’ but couldn’t get past the winner.
I’m looking after Musselburgh tomorrow. You can probably tell from Oddschecker which ones I like but I’ll do a post in a while. Have already bet a few. At about 16:30, I thought the BFS/Paddy Power lines were all over the place in at least four of the races. There were 6/1 about a horse I made 15/8, EVS (!) about a horse I made 5/2 and 20/1 about one I made 8/1.
No doubt the early money has spoken already and we’ll get a good idea who was right!
Musselburgh is a funny track. I don’t quite understand the physics of it. Why is there such a pace bias? Why does it ride so quick? It’s quite a good course for punting though.
There are five C4+ races on the card tomorrow, although many are relatively weak for the grade.
12:45 – 3m C4 Handicap HurdleI’ve already had a bet here. I know he has shortened but I still think The Wise One is a bettable price. My ‘in the dark’ line had him closer to 2/1. Waltz Darling and Ebony Rose are relatively exposed nowadays and Trongate has temperament. Buckled currently makes the market for our selection. This one managed to win at Kelso, but the proximity of old Bescot Springs raises grave doubts about the strength of the form. James Ewart was supposedly the north’s ‘next big thing’ a few years ago but a few disappointing seasons have followed. Rumour has it that his new assistant is training the horses nowadays and Ewart is just the ‘face’ of the yard. That does make some sense given his excellent start to this season, with even sour old goats like Aristo Du Plessis suddenly firing on all cylinders. The Wise One managed to win over C&D last year and can be expected to do even better from just 6lbs higher with the yard in such rude health.
1.15 – 2m 4f Novices’ Handicap Chase
Nothing too creative here. I really liked the way Mullaghmurphy Blue shaped last time (after 10 weeks off) and you know it’ll be trying for its life for a savvy trainer like Jim Dreaper. Devito’sgoldengirl isn’t written off in what promise to be her ideal trip/ground conditions but I don’t think there are any bets to be had at the prices right now. An early morning drift might get me for a small bet on the jolly.
1.50 – 2m Novices’ Hurdle
Prices look right. Beyond The Clouds should beat Golden Jeffrey. Can’t see this becoming a betting race.
2.25 – C4 2m Handicap Chase
I didn’t really agree with this market either. John Williams looks chronically short to me. He needed every inch of a well-run 2m on heavy ground on a stiffish track last time. Surely this is going to be pretty sharp for him. I didn’t really like Endeavor either. He benefited from a pace meltdown over hurdles at Kelso last time and, as his poor record at Musselburgh shows, hold-up tactics are so hard to pull off here. Muwalla looks solid enough down in class and I didn’t mind Chestnut Ben at a track he enjoys. No solid gold NAPs but maybe you could do a bit of dutching.
3.00 – C4 2m Handicap Hurdle
Competitive stuff. I would have bet Suggestion at 6/1 but I wasn’t quick enough off the mark. The horse is ground-dependent so Phil Kirby (much underrated trainer IMO) has incentive to get this one fit before winter ground comes. Superior Command a fair fav after a good comeback but can’t really get any shorter. I didn’t like Vercingetorix at all at the price.
3.30 – C4 3m Handicap Chase
A ropey C5 in all but name. Aftertimer alert but I’ve already bet Blue Kascade. I was all set to play at 13/2 but SkyBet went and topped it up to 7/1. Yes please!
Bright Prospect doesn’t have a great record fresh and doesn’t look like the classic ‘Musselburgh horse’ – had to work hard to chisel through beaten horses in a well-run race at Perth last time. He looks dreadfully short and could easily SP at double that price. The next three are all live runners. No Such Number had a good summer but struggled when hiked in the weights for his wins, but you can excuse his two defeats on account of soft ground and good company. Looks about right in the 5/2 – 11/4 range.
Swantykay (might even be a bet himself now) has gone off the rails since moving from Ellmarie Holden to Barry Murtagh but, to be fair to the horse, he hasn’t had his ideal conditions in any of his last three runs. Tomorrow is his first run on good ground (apart from the unseat) since beating the useful Net D’Ecosse in Ireland.
I put my chips on Blue Kascade, though. Sandy Thomson is a good trainer and has started the season in excellent form with even old Harry The Viking starting out in good heart. He lost his way at he back-end of last season but did win a much better race over this C&D before going off the rails. He can go well fresh.
A bit more SP crushing today. Absolutely chuffed with Blue Kascade. I’ve got Thurles tomorrow, which does not look fun for punting.
Plenty of rain due before the first race, likely to be soft.
12:55 – 2m 2f Beginners’ Chase
Well, who wants it? That’s the real question here. There isn’t much to separate about eight of these on raw ability, but who actually wants to win a weak beginners’ chase, who’s fit and who’s being saved for handicaps? Solar Heat ran really well in a similar race two starts ago but the overall balance of form suggests that might not be reliable. Really hard to recommend anything.
1.25 – 2m 2f Handicap Chase
Ronava has claims given the form shown in a slightly higher grade (Davy Russell also a plus) but you’ll do well to sway me away from good old Hard Bought, whose improved jumping has made a big difference this season. Little Stevie was well-backed at the weekend but fairly laboured in third and looks a surprising fav.
1.55 – 2m Mares’ Maiden Hurdle
Monastery is going to get herself really well-handicapped here. The rain is going to ruin her chances on the day but this is her third run for a mark and she has only jumped timber on bad ground so far – best bumper form on a sound surface. One for the tracker no matter what. True Self justifiably short and ought to win.
2.25 – 2m 4f Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
Again, fitness is likely to be key with Abbey Magic and Mary Frances back from breaks. Plenty of pace on here. The King’s Baby showed improved form to boss a semi-decent maiden hurdle last time, but he was allowed to dictate there and will face challengers up front this time on ground that might not be ideal. Miss Sassie is the obvious one with Brian Cooper choosing to ride in favour of his dad’s horse (he could do the weight for that one, too) but does she really stay this trip? Fintara isn’t totally written off yet (blinkers on here) and might be worth a few quid in the hopes that she gets her act together.
3.00 – 2m Handicap Hurdle
What do you prefer? Recent form or bumper form? Turasoir would be the pick on recent course form but Ale Ambrosio has some outstanding bumper form and hasn’t been knocked around in three starts over hurdles. I’ll probably bet them both for small stakes. 20/1 seems extremely brave from the industry – big price on a well-bred Jessie Harrington duckeggs go first time in a handicap!
3.35 – 3m Maiden Hurdle
Brahma Bull should be too good for these. No bet at the prices.
4.10 – 2m Bumper
Should be a really good bumper. The Big Lense is in all the ‘horses to follow’ books after a superb PTP performance, but the Gigginstown horse and the JP second string are interesting on paper too. Good race to record and watch a few times.
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