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They say a good big ‘un will always beat a good little ‘un. I suspect that’s because the pool from which large horses are drawn is much, much deeper than that from which its rival came and therefore it is more likely that it’s simply a better horse rather than a bigger one.
Clearly no-one told little Apples Jade this statistic before the OLBG at Cheltenham this year as she bravely held off a considerably larger Mullins runner on either side – still gives me goosebumps, pure heart that was!
(clearly this is largely irrelevant to this discussion about flat racing, but sod it
)I saw some novice chase at Wetherby earlier when some tiny little thing managed to fend off it’s much bigger rivals at odds of 28-1.
First race it had won as well. Fences was the making of popelys gull-go figure. sometimes rules are there to be broken.
Tbf having just watched the replay again now, the one it beat into second was even smaller! Both should win more races over fences.
Can anybody nominate half a dozen, or even three or four, high class small 2-y-olds who did not train on?
One of my favourite horses was lyric fantasy, “the pocket rocket” and although she won as a three year old and was fourth in the 1000 guineas, it was a pale shadow of her two year old career.
Tiggy wiggy and risky are other two year olds who didn’t do much after that. And that’s just from the same trainer.
But I’m not sure I’d put september in the same category- I mean i didn’t even notice she was small until some on here mentioned it
and unlike those brilliantly quick two year olds I just mentioned, all she does seem to do is stay, so she should improve in theory next year when she’ll be able to run over middle distances.Another couple of Hannon fillies, Judge; Illuminate and Best Terms.
Hannon buys a lot of two year old types for not much money and does really well with them, developing early but often don’t train on.
I do think nowadays small horses are protected more. The “top two year old” of 2016 that September reminds me most of is Mehmas. Connections were so sure he wouldn’t make a three year old, didn’t bother training him at three… And we’ll never know how the O’Brien Chieveley Park winner Brave Anna would’ve fared. Often seems it’s the small horses who appear once or twice at three and then disappear through injury.A mile at two should provide enough of a stamina test for any horse who’ll need middle distances at three.
With small horses it’s not only that there’s a greater chance of not reaching the rating it was capable of as a two year old… It’s that those who do “train on” seldom improve much… And that’s important because…
On average, Group 1 races at two (Cheiveley Park, Middle Park, Fillies Mile, Dewhurst and Racing Post) don’t need as high a rating to win than it does any Classic at three; or open aged Group 1’s. ie Except for an above average top two year old, they need to improve at three to win another Group 1… So – with small two year olds seldom improving much – they’re usually poor ante-post win bets. Larger horses improving past them.
Value Is EverythingI think another way of addressing the question would be, have any of the classics been won by a horse who had a successful career as a two year old, but was on the small side?
I mean generally the classics tend to be won by horses that weren’t that successful at two, well certainly the later ones at epsom and doncaster are anyway.
Just to give an example of how two year olds can improve from two to three I found this about Homecoming queen: Homecoming Queen is an Irish Thoroughbred racehorse. She showed moderate form as a two-year-old in 2011 but demonstrated dramatic improvement in the spring of 2012 and won the 1000 Guineas by nine lengths.
possibly some of the 1000 guineas winners and oaks winners were on the small side but can’t find any examples of ones that won one of those classics, were clearly on the small side and had a successful two year old career.
maybe pour moi, who won the derby, gives some hope to september fans.. had a fairly low key two year old career then won the derby with a strong finish. only 15.3 hands, is that fairly small for a racehorse?
there’s plenty more examples of small two year olds who didn’t train on. Queens logic being another example. Had a dazzling two year old career. Reappeared once as a three year old, laboured to an unimpressive win then after a bout of “coughing” was quickly retired. Her daughter Queen Kindly did something similar as a two year old last year and not much seen of her this season.
I think it’s also worth mentioning that I could find only one horse that won a two year old race at Royal Ascot and then went on to win a classic at Epsom- Mill Reef, all the way back in 1970. But he was a bit of a freak of a racehorse anyway.
There have been a few who have won the coventry and the chesham in recent years then went on to win the 2000, but on the ladies side and the 1000 guineas the only one who I could find in recent years who won a classic after winning a race at Royal ascot was Attraction. Then you have to go back to Forest flower.
No filly who has won a race at royal ascot has ever won an oaks, as far as I can see, so that precociousness might actually be a disadvantage when it comes to winning middle distance classics. perversely I think September might have a much better chance of winning the 1000. She already has good form over the course and distance.
Misty For Me was a small filly, won a G1 as a 2yo and 2 G1s as a 3yo. Daughter Roly Poly (smaller than mum) won 2 group races (second in G1) as a 2yo, 3 G1s (so far) as a 3yo. US Navy Flag demonstrates the same traits as dam and full sister, a professional attitude and a determination to win, the Galileo influence no doubt. No reason to believe he won’t progress as a 3yo, any more than any other 2yo.
US Navy Flag demonstrates the same traits as dam and full sister, a professional attitude and a determination to win,
that he has but he has also done a lot of winning, and running, I can’t think of any 2000 guineas winners off the top of my head who have had as many runs as he had as a two year old
perhaps they are striking while the iron is hot?
Dimminuendo was a small Oaks winner, trained on really well; but she was not typical and had a massive stride.
Value Is EverythingTo be fair to September backers: Even by allowing for the fact they’re top trainers – top trainers seem to do better with their small horses than other trainers.
Value Is EverythingYeah but she had a bit of scope I think.
Looking back on some of those old videos, can’t believe Alyssa got disqualified in the 1989 oaks- she won by half the track!
Yeah but she had a bit of scope I think.
Looking back on some of those old videos, can’t believe Alyssa got disqualified in the 1989 oaks- she won by half the track!
Aliysa was disqualified later for a banned substance. It was nothing to do with the events of the race itself.
The Aga Khan then threw his toys out of the pram and instead watches Alain De Royer Dupre etc winning very little with his horses instead. Nose/Face/Spite
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hydrangea is another small filly who seems to be thriving on her racing.
I think you can discount USNF’s first 4 runs as AOB seems happy to let them take as many runs as necessary to win a race. This year, more so than previous years, he has been training them on the racecourse. Since his win, USNF’s RPR has increased steadily from race to race.
Saying that, Gustav Klimt has always been the Ballydoyle Guineas horse, and he was the Dewhurst horse until 10 days before the race. Although USNF has possibly surprised even them, I still think Ryan will be on Gustav in May.
US Navy Flag demonstrates the same traits as dam and full sister, a professional attitude and a determination to win,
that he has but he has also done a lot of winning, and running, I can’t think of any 2000 guineas winners off the top of my head who have had as many runs as he had as a two year old
perhaps they are striking while the iron is hot?
I can’t either, but Churchill (6) Gleneagles (6) and Rock of Gibraltar (7) were quite a few runs for 2YO’s compared to most Guineas winners.
As for the winner:
U S Navy Flag has had an awful lot of racing as a two year old. That said, he’s not a small horse so should train on from two to three. Fact he’s had 10 races, that’s as much as most horses have at the end of their second season. I’d be surprised if there’s more than a pound or two improvement in him – if that. However, form shown puts him top of the two year old colts and could win an average Guineas without improving (if we believe the form). Then again, will he stay?Because he’s a big horse and September is a small filly, you think the former will train on but the latter won’t?
Strange
Where did I say U S Navy Flag is a “big horse”, MOM? It’s not that he’s big, and certainly not the good topped sort that improve quite a bit from two to three. He’s just not “small”, so will probably train on.
Lot of punters like to have a definite opinion – either horse x will or won’t train on – I don’t. For me it’s all about probabilities. Am not saying that September definitely won’t train on. But fact is the smaller a two year old is the more chance there is of it not training on… And that’s got to be allowed for when I calculate whether she is currently a value price ante-post. That’s all.
You have a big September price for the Oaks, MOM. You’ve done well, if it’s the price I remember then you’ve got a good value bet and I envy you. ie imo Price you’ve got is imo well worth having now, even if she is small.
That’s fair enough Ginge.
I thought I remember you saying US NF was a big horse and would more likely train on that’s all.
Personally, I’m not sure the horse will be given an easy lead like he was this time in the Guineas. Everything fell right for him and I think that won’t be allowed to happen again.
Can anybody nominate half a dozen, or even three or four, high class small 2-y-olds who did not train on?
One of my favourite horses was lyric fantasy, “the pocket rocket” and although she won as a three year old and was fourth in the 1000 guineas, it was a pale shadow of her two year old career.
Tiggy wiggy and risky are other two year olds who didn’t do much after that. And that’s just from the same trainer.
But I’m not sure I’d put september in the same category- I mean i didn’t even notice she was small until some on here mentioned it
and unlike those brilliantly quick two year olds I just mentioned, all she does seem to do is stay, so she should improve in theory next year when she’ll be able to run over middle distances.Another couple of Hannon fillies, Judge; Illuminate and Best Terms.
Hannon buys a lot of two year old types for not much money and does really well with them, developing early but often don’t train on.
I do think nowadays small horses are protected more. The “top two year old” of 2016 that September reminds me most of is Mehmas. Connections were so sure he wouldn’t make a three year old, didn’t bother training him at three… And we’ll never know how the O’Brien Chieveley Park winner Brave Anna would’ve fared. Often seems it’s the small horses who appear once or twice at three and then disappear through injury.A mile at two should provide enough of a stamina test for any horse who’ll need middle distances at three.
With small horses it’s not only that there’s a greater chance of not reaching the rating it was capable of as a two year old… It’s that those who do “train on” seldom improve much… And that’s important because…
On average, Group 1 races at two (Cheiveley Park, Middle Park, Fillies Mile, Dewhurst and Racing Post) don’t need as high a rating to win than it does any Classic at three; or open aged Group 1’s. ie Except for an above average top two year old, they need to improve at three to win another Group 1… So – with small two year olds seldom improving much – they’re usually poor ante-post win bets. Larger horses improving past them.
Your point about Mehmas is a good one. But one of my biggest things about September is how O’Brien has said all along that she will be a middle distance horse. When I placed my first bet on her for the Oaks, a few days before she won the Chesham, O’Brien was adamant that, even though she was small, she’s going to be a better three year old as she will be running over the correct trip. He made it clear that she’s a middle distance horse but that this season she’d have to run in races short of her trip.
Everything I’ve seen of her (as well as her breeding) suggests that he’s bang on with that. The way she rattled home last week screamed step her up in distance.
I appreciate the opinions of you and others on here hence why I joined a year ago and it’s fascinating how peopl can see things so differently. It’s fun to argue our cases but really, we have no idea. I desperately hope she trains on. Even if she doesn’t win the Oaks, it’d be nice to go to epsom knowing the filly is worth a few thousand quid. Something to look forward to after Cheltenham really.
Hydrangea is another small filly who seems to be thriving on her racing.
I think you can discount USNF’s first 4 runs as AOB seems happy to let them take as many runs as necessary to win a race. This year, more so than previous years, he has been training them on the racecourse. Since his win, USNF’s RPR has increased steadily from race to race.
Saying that, Gustav Klimt has always been the Ballydoyle Guineas horse, and he was the Dewhurst horse until 10 days before the race. Although USNF has possibly surprised even them, I still think Ryan will be on Gustav in May.
Hydrangea had a rating of 112 after the Moyglare last year (on Racing Post figures). Her last run, more than a year later is rated 113 by the same source. Her peak run was 114 and that was at odds of 20/1. If we are to condemn the Racing Post figure, we need to also give the Official figures a kicking, because she is rated 114 there.
Hydrangea has benefited from a really modest season for 3YO fillies in the main. Enable apart, there hasn’t been a really solid 3yo. Winter is 119 regarded and Roly Poly 115, only 1 lb more than Hydrangea.
Hydrangea has benefited from a poor strength in depth and the fact that she keeps running against the same opposition gives the illusion of a consistent standard. She has raced against Winter six times out of her last seven runs. She has won 3 times from 14 starts and is hardly one we will be talking about in the future.
To paraphrase the old Vulcan greeting, “May you live in mediocre times”
Gustav Klimt needs a big leap forward from 2 to 3. His latest win is awful. One handicap winner (three subsequent losses) from 20 subsequent runs. I am not at all confident Gustav Klimt can win the Guineas and I have every reason to want him to do so, having backed him at 33/1 for the race. I am not getting the right vibes and I always tell my true feeling on this, rather than peddling faux bullishness in the hope that they win and make me look a confident wise guy.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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and unlike those brilliantly quick two year olds I just mentioned, all she does seem to do is stay, so she should improve in theory next year when she’ll be able to run over middle distances.
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