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Mendelssohn EW @ 50/1
Followed a mate of mine on the above. He wrote this:
$3m purchase and under the radar. He’s been entered for this race for a good while and will have been laid out for it, so O’Brien’s talent for improving two-year-olds in the autumn could see him step up massively on all known form and outrun those odds.
He won his maiden at the second attempt – and did it without setting the world alight – before he was a big disappointment when seventh of seven behind Seahenge in that Doncaster Group Two.
Crucially, that was raced on softish ground and his American breeding suggests he’s a fast-ground horse through and through.
By super-sire Scatt Daddy, whose progeny include leading three-year-old sprinters Lady Aurelia and Caravaggio, he’s out of the same dam as star American dirt horse Beholder, meaning he’s bred very much in the purple.
Stable jockey Ryan Moore rode him over Seahenge at Doncaster hinting that big things are expected of this horse, and he was quite open about him being a work in progress in the build-up.
O’Brien has been quoted this week saying he’s a likely runner this weekend and will be fitted with a hood to help him concentrate in his races, claiming this looks to have helped him at home.
At 50/1 and with the ground in his favour, I think the market might have missed a trick.
I like Emaraaty, and at 9/2 i’ll go with him. It’s never a positive when a bunch of good judges on this thread don’t even mention him, but it’s one of those things.
I guess the problem is there’s not much juice in the price, given what he has to make up on rating
But I guess you could say that about the favourite too- that the price isn’t offering much in the way of value.
Yeah the price isn’t great. I just think that only the front 2 in the market could be guineas prospects. There is decent e/w value in there somewhere. I think bolgers has sent theobold on a mission to see which guineas to aim verbal at. His might just be too big at 50/1.
A shame that Fleet Review isn’t hear. With Moore aboard U S Navy Flag we can assume that colt’s Coolmore’s number 1 hope and Fleet Review would surely have a fair chance of reversing form over this trip.
Maybe he’s being saved for the Breeders Cup?
I don’t really have a strong fancy here. I want to be against the favourite at the odds but am questioning that now looking at the opposition – none of which really get me excited.
A shame that Fleet Review isn’t hear. With Moore aboard U S Navy Flag we can assume that colt’s Coolmore’s number 1 hope and Fleet Review would surely have a fair chance of reversing form over this trip.
Maybe he’s being saved for the Breeders Cup?
I don’t really have a strong fancy here. I want to be against the favourite at the odds but am questioning that now looking at the opposition – none of which really get me excited.
I know what you mean but these end of season races often have a funny way of throwing up a shock result
wouldn’t be surprised if Expert Eye bombed out here, just have a funny feeling about it, he’s coming off a long absence. although I think he’s by far the most talented horse in the race- if you haven’t got on early then taking the 4-7 is completely bonkers in my view.
Since 2006 colts have carried 9.1 rather than 9.0 in this – anyone know why the conditions were changed and was it a general Group 1 change for that age group?
By way of some trivia, 4 of the last seven runnings have been won from stall 3.
Expert Eye has been blasting up the gallops at Newmarket this week and Michael Stoute is very happy with him, it’s hard to see him getting beat but on the other hand it’s definitely worth going for a big each way to place even though a lot of the bookies at Newmarket, and other courses, will only be offering Win Only (why do they do that LS3?)
For my horse without the favourite I would have to choose US Navy Flag who seems to have found his feet now and I think he showed he could get the extra furlong when running away up the Rowley Mile last time out.
Apart from these two plus Emaaraty I think it’s a very weak Dewhurst this year.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Unusual for Stoute to be excited by anything, is it not? He seems very taken with this horse.
I have gone with Threeandfourpence at 50s EW with b365.
His win doesn’t look anything special on paper but he got out from behind a wall of horses, in poor weather and probably softer ground than ideal, and ran on well.Threeandfourpence E/W 66/1 3 Places 1/4 odds
Hoping the amazing run of Mrs. Stockwell’s offspring from her mare Liscanna continues.
Last year she hit the target with Brave Anna and the year before Hit it a bomb.
GL everyone
Threeandfourpence is well named. By War Front: there was an old story about the importance of good communication and they used an example, almost certainly apocryphal, of an officer at the front in the trenches trying to get an order back down the line by word of mouth: “Send reinforcements, we’re going to advance!”
By the time the message reach the generals it was, “Send three and fourpence, we’re going to a dance!”
will only be offering Win Only (why do they do that LS3?)
Bad each-way issues, Jac. The notion of an e/w bet in a race with this kind of shape is way out of date and not worth offering. Win-only and place-only much better for straight punters and bookmakers alike.
As a few chisellers on this thread have spied, you’re getting a massive place arb if you bet each-way in this race. For example, Emaraaty e/w @ 11/2 (1/5 odds) gets you a bit more than EVS on the place. Currently 1.65 to place on the machine. Not something bookmakers want to encourage for obvious reasons.
Well D-Day is here (see what I did there?) and I’m with Botchy having nabbed 66/1 (e/w) about Threeandfourpence with the thinking that surely Heffernan is a positive and this is still a seriously well bred colt. I then think I got a bit caught up in the moment and I ended up backing both U S Navy Flag and Seahenge at 9/1 and 14/1 respectively. So I’ve got far more involved than I wanted and have backed 3 of the 4 Coolmore horses which I know must make me look like a bit of a blond punter but I promise I’m not. I’ve just decided to properly go and take on the favourite and it just so happens those with Group winning form are from Ballydoyle.
I was very surprised to learn that Stoute has had just two 2yo group 1 winners in his entire training career. Surely a great chance of a 3rd one today.
A few on here have already stated they are not into e/w betting, so for those
of that particular persuasion…….Look away now !For those that are still with me, and Charlie87 certainly is, I don’t think it’s
the daftest bet in the world to chance that MENDELSSOHN at 80/1
with Paddy Power could sneak into the places. On his last run you couldn’t even
look at him, but if he just had an off day, or if the softish ground is something
he can’t go on, then on his previous run in his Maiden at the Curragh, he’s not
without a hope. The conditions will be much more to liking today, and O’brien
tries blinkers on him which presumably he feels might benefit him. I don’t think
anything will get near EXPERT EYE if he puts in anything near his Goodwood run,
but I’d be a lot happier with an e/w 80/1 than the 4/7 that’s on offer with him.
It’s not really the kind of race where I have much of a financial interest, but
I can’t turn down what looks to me like reasonable value at those odds.Stoute takes them along with a 3yo career in mind. Expert Eye is a rare “Ready out of the box” youngster for him.
Some of the youngsters are simply precocious but Expert Eye does not shape like that.
I have taken 4/1 on Expert Eye to my modest maximum bet for the 2000 Guineas. I don’t see any real dangers lurking. Gustav Klimt is the invisible man and his form hasn’t worked out. Pentagon is much the same and Saxon Warrior looks a Derby type.
I am on at 4/1 in the expectation he will be 6/4 Fav by 3.30 this afternoon.
Strongly advised at 4’s
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Would being an early foal give Expert Eye much of an advantage for the 2 year campaign, Steve…?
I know you have talked about difference in date of foals before.
Seahenge looks a big price today, may not beat the fav but worth a try at the odds. His debut and Champagne victory were both very eye catching and I believe for whatever reason he ran below par at Goodwood, I’d take him to close the gap significantly from the 8l defeat that day.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Seahenge – I backed him at Goodwood, that explains his poor run there…
Interesting stat that Stoute has only ever had two Gr 1 winning two year old colts. That surprised me, given the length of his career and the champions that have been through his hands.
US Navy Flag is improving and improving fast, I think he might give the fav a race but I’m really hoping Expert Eye can give Stoute another real champion.
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