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When the betting emerged for the Dewhurst Stakes I backed Expert Eye at 2/1. Given that he was only double those odds for the Guineas, which is way off on the distance, it seemed a much better value bet.
Revisiting the Dewhurst betting now sees Stoute’s colt the 4/6 Favourite for the race. Why the sudden confidence?
I know I should be happy having 2/1 on a 4/6 shot but it just hasn’t been helping me of late that I have good odds come the day of the race.
Is 4/6 a silly price?
Gustav Klimt seems to have disappeared, along with The Pentagon and their races have not worked out very well. Will we even see them again this season?
Verbal Dexterity is 9/2 and surely a better bet than the aforementioned pair. He swamped Beckford on very soft ground despite that colt seemingly travelling better earlier in the race. Beckford didn’t do a lot as a surprising favourite for the Middle Park though, in a race where US Navy Flag had improving form but still looked to have something to find with several others.
US Navy Flag is in the Dewhurst as well but will 7F suit. Confusingly and somewhat annoyingly Bet365 quote US Navy Flag twice in their betting. You can have US Navy Flag at 25/1 yet U S Navy Flag is only 12/1. It just shows the difference a space between the U and the S makes a world of difference.
This is happening far too often on Oddschecker and multiple, separate quotes are given to the same horse because of spelling mistakes.
Seahenge bounced back last time, showing a nice turn of gear to prevail by a neck and the same in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. The third horse there, Mystical Magic was no match for Happily in the Lagardere and Seahenge has already been defeated by Expert Eye.
Expert Eye thumped some decent sorts last time, with Seahenge and James Garfield both winning Group 2 races since.
He looks the one to beat but is he as certain as 4/6 suggests?
My recent run suggests you cannot bank on the 2/1 taken earlier being landed. I am finding it hard to be confident about Gustav Klimt and The Pentagon for the moment.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m pretty sure Gustav Klimt has been put away for the season, and the same for the Pentagon. I don’t know why they are in the betting, though I might be wrong.
Expert Eye’s form could hardly be working out better. If you need a winner, just find something that has clashed with Expert Eye!
You took a chance with that 2/1 – some reports were saying it was in the balance whether Expert Eye would even run again this season – but it’s worked out beautifully for you now. Not only is he going to run, but the key rivals seem to be running for cover. Should win well if in good enough shape to do himself justice. I wonder if Coolmore will throw in a few second-raters just to get an early feel for where their mob stand against this horse.
This is what O’Brien had to say for a few of his leading juveniles, as per the Racing Post article posted on September 16th.
“The Dewhurst is the plan for Gustav Klimt, who is a colt who appreciates good or faster ground, “O’Brien said.
However, Amedeo Modigliani, who is joint second favourite with Gustav Klimt for the Derby, will not race again this year. O’Brien said: “We’ve decided to put Amedeo Modigliani away until next season.”
“The Pentagon will have another run this season and we’re looking at the Racing Post Trophy or possibly the Dewhurst for him.”
I was very confident that Expert eye would win at Goodwood however in my opinion the odds are wrong for this.
Jim Bolger has an outstanding record in this race, pretty much everything he’s aimed at this has won, and Verbal Dexterity is rated about the same as Expert Eye. Just that info in itself would put me off backing the Stoute horse
Gustav Klimt misses the Dewhurst and will be put away for the year. O’Brien listed U S Navy Flag and Threeandfourpence as Dewhurst contenders and perhaps Seahenge. Disappointing turnout from Ballydoyle.
Saxon Warrior and The Pentagon may go for the Racing Post Trophy.
I’ve got 7/1 Expert Eye for the 2000 Guineas taken immediately after he won the Champagne. 4/1 for that race now looks pretty short to me. But at this point even with Gustav a non-runner I’d say 4/6 for the Dewhurst is ridiculous. Particularly with having a set back since Goodwood and only two runs to his name – little experience might tell.
Value Is EverythingI’m not really sure how many people will be taking the 4/6 about such a lightly raced son of Acclamation in Europe’s premier juvenile Stakes race.
It’s really not a race I’m keen to have a bet in until final decs though as it’s pretty up in the air by the looks of things for who’s actually going to run – especially from Ballydoyle.
With no Verbal Dexterity in the dewhurst, struggle to see the favourite getting beaten, maybe Bolger pulled him out because of respect for the Stoute horse?!
I guess those who like a longshot could do worse than back Threeandfourpence, whose brother and sister both won group one or grade one races, and theobald, given the trainers record in the race. But both have an enormous amount to make up with expert eye. I can’t see them doing it and the only question mark for me in this race is the amount of time since his goodwood run.
I like Emaraaty, and at 9/2 i’ll go with him. It’s never a positive when a bunch of good judges on this thread don’t even mention him, but it’s one of those things.
Theobald 50/1 is far too big in my opinion after just one bad run. He has certainly failed to live up to the high expectations I had for him at the start of the season, but his form hardly warrants 50/1 in what looks a very open race.
Watching him that day at Leopardstown when he finished 8th to Nelson, he travelled well beside the eventual winner and at one point looked like he would stay on to mount a challenge. But in the final furlong the lights just went out and was no doubt given an easy time of it by Kevin Manning.
I have always maintained that this horse ran like he wanted a trip, but watching him the last day I now question whether he can even stay a mile on anything worse than Good ground. Nevertheless, his form over 7f is stronger than most going into this, having finished 2nd to the Pentagon over the trip.
I’m by no means confident, but it looks like he’ll get his good ground and may just be capable of outrunning those odds for a place at most.
Of the Ballydoyle contingent, Threeandfourpence 33/1 is worth looking at. Seahenge is already exposed against Expert Eye, and while he has undoubtedly improved, the 10/1 about him interests me very little. Threeandfourpence represents the precocious War Front line and is the least exposed of the lot, he could spring a big surprise here.
Theobald 50/1 each-way
Threeandfourpence 33/1 each-wayI like Emaraaty, and at 9/2 i’ll go with him. It’s never a positive when a bunch of good judges on this thread don’t even mention him, but it’s one of those things.
I guess the problem is there’s not much juice in the price, given what he has to make up on rating
But I guess you could say that about the favourite too- that the price isn’t offering much in the way of value.
not sure id use the word exposed as a 2 year old in a group 1 after running against each other once, us navy flag is a prime example of why not to say a 2yo is exposed to anything, although i may have bet seahenge, expert eye was by far the better horse the last time out and id be surprised should he be beaten, that being said,
Threeandfourpence coming from a maiden i wrote up about previously in the forum, which has proved pretty decent with gobi desert winning again,zabriski,london icon winning amongst a host of decent placings
Woukdnt be surprised to see him run well at the prices youv listed
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