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imo Although on the face of it Cracksman having to be asked for his effort some way out at 12f may look as if he lacks the pace for this 10f Group 1… However, sectional times of the Voltigeur suggest otherwise.
Barney Roy best of the rest.
Value Is EverythingSectional times is the reason why I too will be backing Cracksman.
My original thought was that he needs a bit further but I’ve changed my mind.
Al Wukair isn’t running as far as I am aware. I took a pop with Brametot at 12/1. I think he was a bit better than his finishing position in the Arc and they were said to be discussing letting the colt take his chance in the Champion Stakes. He has to be a better bet than Enable surely.
Along with Enable, Winter and Ulysses must be doubtful. The USA was talked of as Ulysses’s next target.
Most of the O’Brien runners, like Ulysses, vary hugely across the boards.
I believe Rouget will be missing a very good chance of glory if he doesn’t come here. Cracksman may end up very short here but I settled for Brametot and risk the chance of a know show, as I am sure he will be a good bit shorter in a potentially small field.
Brametot 12/1Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I backed Rhododendron at a big price incase she shows which i doubt she will but happy to take a flyer at the price
Cant have most of the others and i still cant back cracksman at that price because of how his form has stood out(im not a sectional person), ulysses isnt running which is a shame, barney roy and churchill i dont think are good enough
I think a filly will win, will probably back winter if she turned up if rhododendron didnt
Could throw up another decorated knight result
Al Wukair isn’t running as far as I am aware. I took a pop with Brametot at 12/1. I think he was a bit better than his finishing position in the Arc and they were said to be discussing letting the colt take his chance in the Champion Stakes. He has to be a better bet than Enable surely.
Along with Enable, Winter and Ulysses must be doubtful. The USA was talked of as Ulysses’s next target.
Most of the O’Brien runners, like Ulysses, vary hugely across the boards.
I believe Rouget will be missing a very good chance of glory if he doesn’t come here. Cracksman may end up very short here but I settled for Brametot and risk the chance of a know show, as I am sure he will be a good bit shorter in a potentially small field.
Brametot 12/1Of those you mention, Steve: If recovering in time it wouldn’t be a surprise if Winter turns up in this. Especially if Churchill goes for the QEII. Who else do Coolmore have for the QEII if not Churchill? So think he’ll go there. Highland Reel is a possible for the Champion only if it’s a sound surface; if not will go straight for the Breeders Cup Turf. Can see your logic with Brametot, but his temperament – often slowly away – puts me off.
Value Is EverythingCracksman 7-2 looks huge to me. I reckon he might win by half the track.
I make him an 1-2 shot.
Definitely a race to be betting in at some point with Cracksman a bit of a shonky favourite. It’s hard to know who is going to run, though.
If, like me, you’d be looking to oppose Cracksman, then I suppose the best play is to just lay him on the day. Probably will SP shorter than the current 7/2 as the race looks like it will cut up. We haven’t heard anything about Barney Roy for a while, Highland Reel is a doubt if there’s any cut, Ulysses has other targets, it’s asking a lot of Winter to rebound from the Arc this quickly and Brametot is just a bit pants. Churchill also looks a bit of a fraud at this point.
My early play is Sir John Lavery e/w @ 33/1. He has his quirks undoubtedly but has been steadily progressive in his last three starts. Revived by the drop to a mile, dreadfully unlucky in the Boomerang Stakes (form franked since) and probably had an impossible task trying to give first run to the brilliant Beat The Bank at Newmarket (also palpably failed to handle the dip). Back up to 1m 2f (probably will be his ideal trip) in a race sure to be run at a pace by the Cracksman team, I think he can at least run on for a place. Hopefully ‘the lads’ decide to run him here in favour of the QEII.
Highland Reel possibly goes to Canada on the same day before Del Mar. Could change if faster conditions probably.
I’ve had Bramtetot at 17.50. He would have finished third or second in the Arc without getting mullered two furlongs out, and if he did he would be a quarter of his current price. That’s not to mention that most shorter in the betting than him are unlikely to turn up! Currently the betting is:
1. Cracksman (4.50)
2. Barney Roy (7.00)
3. Enable (7.00)
4. Winter (8.00)
5. Poets Word (9.00)
6. Ulysses (11.00)
7. Al Wukair (13.00)
8. Brametot (11.00)You can straight away take out Enable and Ulysses. Cracksman is still not confirmed to even go, and there’s no guaranteeing he’ll be just as good or better over shorter. I’m not sure how good the Poets Word form is, and Al Wukair seems more likely to go to the QE2. Brametot has shorted to roughly where he should be, although maybe deserves to be a bit shorter, I just hope he runs.
Brametot hugely flattered by racing prominently by my reading of the sectionals from the Arc. Order Of St George, Idaho and Brametot the key ‘sectional downgrade’ horses according to the figures.
Head-on replays suggests he was struggling to hold his position at the time of the ‘mullering’, then struggled to hold fellow backpeddler Idaho and the deep closers for his midfield spot.
You’ll get value though, Degaussed. Rouget “95% sure” he’ll run Brametot so you’re looking good on that score.
Brametot hugely flattered by racing prominently by my reading of the sectionals from the Arc. Order Of St George, Idaho and Brametot the key ‘sectional downgrade’ horses according to the figures.
Head-on replays suggests he was struggling to hold his position at the time of the ‘mullering’, then struggled to hold fellow backpeddler Idaho and the deep closers for his midfield spot.
You’ll get value though, Degaussed. Rouget “95% sure” he’ll run Brametot so you’re looking good on that score.
If you’re correct, then you could argue that the drop back down to 10 furlongs will suit him better, judging him on his Jockey Club win.
Do you have the source on the quote btw? I like to read these things to gauge how the trainer is feeling.
I’m subscribed to an e-mail service that had the “95%” quote (from French TV), but Sporting Life have something similar from Harry Herbert which seems to confirm.
http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/11068100/brametot-in-line-for-champion-stakes-at-ascot
Brametot has far better credentials than some here.
I feel Winter has had a busy enough season and will have little left now. Brametot was closer to the pace than in his two classic wins and I feel stamina caught up with him in the Arc, and the bit of trouble in running didn’t help. He would not have won but he beat off some shorter priced no hopers along the way.
The very fact that Aidan has Sir John Lavery in there is a concern for Ballydoyle fans? A Listed and Maiden winner way out of his depth here, beaten in one of the worst Group 2 races I have ever seen when favourite for the Boomerang Stakes, a race where the highest rated horse was 112. Very poor standard.
I think we will see a small field. Brametot won’t get a better chance than the one that is likely to face him here. Brametot is surely one of those likely to have more pace than Cracksman, having collared a comfortable Jersey winner?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
cannot have cracksman on my mind at just under 10f(been wrong many times probably will be again) will wait for day of race and hope he makes the market for me, good luck to those playing.
Now a very probable runner, those already on have undoubtedly got good value on Brametot. However, judging what position he would’ve finished in the Arc on being “mullered” (when going a lot better than Idaho) – isn’t straightforward. Got to take in to consideration Idaho is a 12f horse who’ll stay much further given the chance. Brametot won a classic over a mile, so has far more speed. Therefore, to a large extent is only what I’d expect two out. imo Way he ran on in the final furlong suggests Brametot stays 12f but does not suggest to me he’d have done any better than finishing alongside Order Of St George in 4th… And not a top form OOSG at that. Only a fair pace didn’t place enough emphasis on stamina for the stayer. If getting away on terms Brametot has some scope to improve, but will need to progress quite a bit more if he’s to win an average Champion Stakes.
Value Is EverythingI’d say it’s looking like Winter and Cliffs Of Moher will run here with Churchill and possibly Sir John Lavery in the QE2. That would make sense to me and give Coolmore the best chance of claiming both races. I for one think Winter would have a huge shout. She takes her racing very well and was traveling smoothly at Chantilly before things didn’t go her way. I’d not want to write Cliffs Of Moher off either given his unfortunate run this year.
Brametot lining up in the Champion would surely make Al Wukair’s target far more likely to be the QE2?
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