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Barney Roy EW looks like a decent bet now I reckon, even at 4/1, Black Type have 9/2 on offer, I find it impossible to see him not making the frame.
And of course begs the question – why no Ulysses? Probably just the toll of a succession of hard races?
Strange race. Ulysses out and Moore jocked up on the Reel?
Not strange LS.
They’d have hoped Ulysses would’ve recovered in time. There was less time between some of his Group 1’s so it looked encouraging. But sometimes a horse just takes longer than expected. Happily ran on the same day and was a late abscentee in the Fillies Mile. Plus, Stoutey doesn’t seem in as good form at the moment. Not surprised Ulysses is missing, especially after impressive gallop reports of stable companion Poet’s Word.Can understand jockey bookings. Only if it’s soft will Cliffs Of Moher have a better chance than Highland Reel… Soft may well be probable going on Saturday, but if it were thought too soft for Highland Reel then Coolmore will pull him out anyway. Resulting in Ryan ending up on Cliffs Of Moher.
Value Is EverythingUlysses is apparently going to the Breeders Cup. He’s had some hard races this year, so not too surprising they’d want to avoid another just 2 weeks beforehand
Pretty happy to finally have a slice of luck and see Cliffs Of Moher declared having got on at 16/1. He’s even managed to get the plum draw and with ground conditions likely to go against Highland Reel there’s every chance Moore could end up in the saddle come mid afternoon.
It was a disappointment that Ulysses won’t be seen at Ascot but maybe that’s because Sir Michael already has the winner in the stable? Poet’s Word has been sort of overlooked here but that form from Leopardstown is as good as anything here and he’s proven on a softer surface. I’m not set yet but I’m warming to this one.
I thought Poet’s Word ran a great race at Leopardstown, but I would be wary about the fact he ran on the “Golden Highway”.
Desert Encounter seems a forgotten about horse. He was third in the Eclipse when he ran on from the rear of the field. The talk going into the King George was that he would love soft ground, but like many he didn’t get home that day. He’s a big each way player over a trip, track and ground perfect for him.
Thing that surprised me more was the fact that Highland Reel was left in the race – he has never won on anything slower than good (only 2 of his 9 wins have actually been on good ground) and it ain’t going to be good ground come Saturday.
I note that he hasn’t run since July so could this actually be Coolmore (realising his chances of winning greatly reduce with each drop of rain) looking more at just trying to get a prep race into him in order to be cherry ripe for the BC Turf?
Exactly my thoughts. Surely cracksman must win this or he’s not the horse people think he is. Wouldn’t be surprised to see and outsider win as too many questions marks over a lot of the field.
Looking for soft ground performers at a price may lead you to Success Days (confirmed front runner} who has won on soft & heavy and the French horse Recoletos who has won 3 times on very soft (one at 11F) and was only 1L behind Brametot in the French Derby – in normal conditions they wouldn’t be good enough but on that ground (likely to get more testing as more rain forecast) a surprise result is now not as unlikely as it was at the start of the week.
Anyone worried about how Barney Roy will cope with soft ground? I know being by Excelebration he might be ok but combine that with the 10F and how free he was early on at York and I am not sure he won’t be running on empty in the final 1F especially if they go a good gallop which his pacemaker (might have a battle with Success Days) will probably need to do to get him to settle early.
Conditions seem to be falling Cracksman’s way with each drop of rain so providing he is in the same form as his last two runs, he really has no excuse unless Dettori gets the tactics wrong. For me he surely needs to keep it simple and sit handy (second or third) and then kick on just before the home turn (hopefully nicking a couple of lengths in the process) and get the speedier horse to use up their turn of foot to bridge the gap as I don’t see anyone out galloping him when he is in full flight…….ahhhhh if only it were that easy.
Aye, LD73, Cracksman a valid fav on anything other than hock deep which would put him and a few others into unknown territory.
I wouldn’t chance Barney in soft ground, based as much on his action as anything.
I like Recoletos groundwise and he’s the least exposed although Brametot has had just 2 runs more and, assuming he’s recovered from the Arc, 6/1 looks awful big.
Soft should suit Cracksman, brings stamina in to play and has a rounded action. Got 7/2 ante-post, now less than 2/1 and that’s imo too short if betting today. Took 5.8/1 on the machine Barney Roy too, but now 9/2 best price. If 5.8/1 were still available I’d say “back him”; but the going and strong headwind bring an increased test of stamina at this trip, plus (as Joe says) his action (good-soft would be ok, not soft… Am laying a bit of that 5.8/1 back @ 9/2 to make him only a “saver”.
imo Brametot and Poet’s Word should now be closer to Barney than they currently are. Poet’s Word is improving at the right time but had the run of the race (with winner Decorated Knight) from the back/round the field) in Ireland. Stoutey doesn’t seem in great form at the moment either. So have gone with the French horse as a saver. In the past have been critical of Brametot’s temperament and can get behind (didn’t in the Arc)… But on soft ground, with a strong headwind possibly in favour of hold up horses, and trainer in better form now than at any time in the last 3 months… (pace/wind and trainer form are big things for me) I’ve had a saver. Even thinking of making him a main bet.
Of the Coolmore horses: Highland Reel would have a great chance on good ground; however on soft I expect him to be a non-runner tomorrow and in that case Ryan switches to Cliffs Of Moher. So if you fancy COM then get on now. Should run better than recently. The Heff over-doing things from the front at York and not a clear run in Ireland. Take those two runs out, plus when mullered by his stable-mate at Sandown and you’re left with a good second in The Derby. So not out of things and proven on soft. If I was having another bet it would be him. But I don’t like giving excuses for as many as three runs and needs to improve on that Epsom form.
Unless something drastic happens with pace.., eg Success Days left alone in front or everything else going too fast and Desert Encounter picks up the pieces… can’t see the rest being good enough.
If I hadn’t had my ante-post bets, I’d be backing one horse each way now. Brametot.
Value Is EverythingI promised myself that if John Gosden and Oppenheimer took the decision to forego the Arc with Cracksman in favour of The Champion Stakes , that unless the ground turned into a bog , I would definitely back the horse at Ascot .
Fresh as a daisy and ready to win : Cracksman
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Pleased to see Success Days get a bit of a mention as I’ve backed him (40-1). I know he shouldn’t be nearly good enough but he may stay in front long enough to nab a place. At least, being grey, I might be able to spot him through the driving rain & howling gale! I’ll still be cheering for Cracksman though. Good luck everyone
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