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Barney Roy’s team have said that their fellow will be played later and will not set it up for Ulysses as they did when getting involved in a battle with Churchill. That is all very well but the alternative for Barney Roy is being held up in a race where it seems sure that Cracksman will make a pretty long run for home in order to make sure they will get into top gear and try to run the finish out of Ulysses.
I feel that Ulysses and Brametot are the runners most likely to get the benefit of Cracksman making it a true test in the closing stages and one of them may come there swinging in behind him.
I backed Brametot in the hope that Ulysses may not run and have the Breeders Cup as his main target but with him apparently running, a bet on the Stoute horse at 4/1 was essential, as he may have the legs of the 3YO runners. I am therefore split on Brametot and Ulysses here and may have a Don Revie forecast, hoping that Cracksman sets it up for them.
I keep picturing Ulysses coming through to take it up and win from Brametot also passing Cracksman late and the Gosden horse repelling the others and Barney Roy unable to get into it from behind.
Cliffs Of Moher is not for me, he’s had all his chances he’s getting.
The Coolmore horses seem to get backed religiously, as the punters don’t want to admit to their mates that they weren’t on the latest “Good thing”, so they punt with the collective mentality of THE BORG.
“Resistance is futile, prepare to be assimilated, existence as you know it is over”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Barney Roy’s team have said that their fellow will be played later and will not set it up for Ulysses as they did when getting involved in a battle with Churchill. That is all very well but the alternative for Barney Roy is being held up in a race where it seems sure that Cracksman will make a pretty long run for home in order to make sure they will get into top gear and try to run the finish out of Ulysses.
I feel that Ulysses and Brametot are the runners most likely to get the benefit of Cracksman making it a true test in the closing stages and one of them may come there swinging in behind him.
I backed Brametot in the hope that Ulysses may not run and have the Breeders Cup as his main target but with him apparently running, a bet on the Stoute horse at 4/1 was essential, as he may have the legs of the 3YO runners. I am therefore split on Brametot and Ulysses here and may have a Don Revie forecast, hoping that Cracksman sets it up for them.
I keep picturing Ulysses coming through to take it up and win from Brametot also passing Cracksman late and the Gosden horse repelling the others and Barney Roy unable to get into it from behind.
Cliffs Of Moher is not for me, he’s had all his chances he’s getting.
The Coolmore horses seem to get backed religiously, as the punters don’t want to admit to their mates that they weren’t on the latest “Good thing”, so they punt with the collective mentality of THE BORG.
“Resistance is futile, prepare to be assimilated, existence as you know it is over”
I don’t quite understand, Steve. You seem to be suggesting Barney Roy will be inconvenienced by being held up and yet your tips are Ulysses and Brametot precisely because you expect them to be held up. imo Barney Roy has just as much speed, shown in impressive sectionals at both Ascot and Sandown. Just as much as the other two and is a bit better than distances of the International suggest. Disputed too strong a pace, so the distance of 2 1/4 lengths back to Ulysses somewhat flatters the winner… And – although I was beginning to be a bit concerned – Hannon has seemingly returned to form in the last couple of days. If anything now in better form than Stoute (although that could change before Saturday). Ulysses deserves to be a shorter price than Barney, but possibly not by as much as the betting suggests. I’m not as concerned as some with the gap between Arc and Champion. Ulysses has run/won well this year with shorter breaks. So has Brametot. Although I do wonder if the latter turned over a new leaf in the Arc, or was it a one off quick start? What do you think the differences are between them?
The one Coolmore horse I’d be frightened of is Highland Reel. but only if it’s a sound surface.
Value Is EverythingCan’t see a reason why Frankie won’t try to make all
Will Coolmore have a pacemaker, Joe?
Looks like Godolphin will for Barney Roy, but am disappointed it’s not Hawkbill. Maverick Wave can be totally ignored – not good enough.
Is Cliffs Of Moher there in an attempt to lead the main pack at a slowish pace? Positional advantage over Barney, Ulysses and Brametot and (to their theory) more speed than Cracksman to kick off the front end?
Value Is EverythingThe rain is a concern, but if it mostly misses Ascot and we get ‘good’ ground or better Highland Reel wins this, doesn’t he? 32red are 10/1 on him NRNB which I’m more than happy to take!
I’m with Steve on Brametot – I also backed him on the assumption that with the Breeders Cup being Ulysses’s main end of season target and him having run in the Arc, there wasn’t a chance in hell he would contest this. It looks like I was wrong, but hopefully he will drift a little on the day.
Maverick Wave seems to be entered for pace-making duties for Barney Roy. Hopefully that remains the case because I would love to see how good he is in a strongly run race.
I’m not a favourite backer as a rule, but I must admit I’m having a helluva time trying
to convince myself that something in this will beat CRACKSMAN. I think
ULYSSES is very useful, and has a proper turn of foot, but I think that the ARC is likely
to have taken the edge of him, even if only slightly, whereas Cracksman has had a decent
break and will come here fresher. ULYSSES is not that far off the odds of CRACKSMAN in any
case, in fact he’s trading shorter in a couple of places. At the odds, even with the drop
back to 10f (and I don’t think that will be as much of a problem as some believe) I think
CRACKSMAN is the better value of the two. BARNEY ROY is a commendably tough and very decent
sort, but I don’t see any reason to believe he would turn the tables on ULYSSES, who beat him
the last twice out. I was hoping to find something that was at very decent odds, that made
sense to take e/w, but I don’t see anything that fits the bill. The only real danger I see,
and that’s if it stays dry, is HIGHLAND REEL, but at 14/1 he’s not really an e/w choice for
me. I would stick a saver on him (on the nose) with Paddy Power at 14s, but for the fact that
the weather report shows some steady rain Wednesday and Thursday, and the possibility of heavy
showers about 1pm on Saturday. That being the case I’ll leave him for now, as I think there is
a chance he won’t appear, or at least won’t have conditions to suit. Unadventurous as it undoubtedly
is, I have to side with CRACKSMAN.Drier forecast this morning. I think the ground will be good unless it tips it down on Saturday morning.
Drier forecast this morning. I think the ground will be good unless it tips it down on Saturday morning.
Hard to know what to make of it Gun. The BBC weather site seem to have changed to
slightly better weather, with occasional light rain and the possibility of more
on Saturday. The Met Office however, seem to think that there will be persistent
heavy rain from now until 1pm today, heavy rain in the early hours of Friday and
then again more rain on Saturday, some heavy, during the early part of the day.
Is there anyone down there that can confirm if there is heavy rain at the moment,
as the Met Office report states
I don’t see Cracksman trying to make all the running but he will almost certainly be handy (as he has in his last couple of races) but the draw will also determine how close to the pace he will be able to get (have a feeling he might get a car park draw like Jack Hobbs did).
Problem they will have is if someone (likely Highland Reel if we get good ground) tries to dictate off slow early fractions then he may have to be committed from much further out to try and draw the sting from the quicker horses but if they go a good gallop, I can see him being revved up just before the turn (around 3F out) in the hope that when they hit the 2.5F home straight he is in full flight.
I watched an interview with cotc Chris Stickles yesterday and he said the forecast was that there was a chance of rain every day including Saturday and whilst the course was good all round at this time of year any rain they get is unlikely to dry out very quickly (if at all) and if they get a lot of rain and the track has heavy in the description they will switch to the jumps course, which is currently firm (good to firm in places).
Met Office still indicates that they will get rain between now and Saturday (high winds warning for Saturday), it just depends on how much they get as I don’t think it will take much this time of year to go a lot softer than good – most likely it will be somewhere close to good to soft.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=ascot
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcps2xe58#?date=2017-10-18Oh sugar!
Strong southwesterly.
In their faces up the straight.
Jockeyship will play a much bigger part than it should.
Favouring stamina laden hold up horses in truly run races but how many of them will we have? Now much more likely to be slowly run affairs, possibly very slow as nobody wants to be the wind break.
Much more a lottery.Value Is Everythingseems like poets word the biggest danger to crackscert, either that or the wind
Looks like Ulysses is out now
He is indeed out, when they started hyping up poets word this morning i knew he wasnt going to be declared
Just a watching race for me now, not the most inspiring of races, i hope for next years sake that either barney roy or cracksman win
Thing that surprised me more was the fact that Highland Reel was left in the race – he has never won on anything slower than good (only 2 of his 9 wins have actually been on good ground) and it ain’t going to be good ground come Saturday.
I note that he hasn’t run since July so could this actually be Coolmore (realising his chances of winning greatly reduce with each drop of rain) looking more at just trying to get a prep race into him in order to be cherry ripe for the BC Turf?
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