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Big G makes a strong case for Capri earlier in the thread and I see the money has come for him
Personally the way Winter hosed up in the 1000 I’d ignore this gamble at your peril, as you’d have to think it’s to some extent stable generated.
I think if it’s good ground I don’t think Capri can win but if it’s riding soft then who knows… although another grey eminent I think would relish soft ground even more… does anyone know who is likely to ride the stable second string? Heffernan?
It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance of the ground coming up soft though, so I can’t see the justification behind the Capri gamble.
This “gamble” on Capri is legalised theft. Please don’t fall for it. He’s a no-hoper. You’re backing a 40/1 shot at 9/1.
Good to Soft at Epsom now after 15mm of rain. That will help Best Solution, Dubai Thunder and Capri but will probably put a fork in Eminent and Cliffs Of Moher with the extra stamina demands.
I see Capri at 10/1 with three firms, that looks way skinny, even with the rain. I also see Venice Beach as low as 9/1.
Diore Lia is 2000/1 with Bet Victor. Good on them. Firms offering 500/1 should be ashamed of themselves.
LOL that’s a bit dramatic! Putting a fork in their chances just cos it’s gone good to soft? If the horse is good enough, he’ll win.
Gotta agree 100% about Capri at 10/1. Disgusting. Taking bets at that price is tantamount to theft. Diore Lia should be 1 million to 1. Free PR for any bookmaker who wants it. Will be flooded with £1 bets. More theft but essentially legal profit.
Dubai Thunder got a Racing Post Rating of 102 for winning a maiden on a ploughed field the other week. That leaves him just 4 lbs behind Cliffs Of Moher on the latter’s official mark. Surely that leaves Cliffs Of Moher fans cacking themselves at 4/1, when the Godolphin horse is 20/1, yet so close in the ratings?
Getting more scared of Dubai Thunder the closer we get to the day. Only potential monsters in the field are this guy + Eminent IMO, remain unconvinced by anything else. The forecast?
I don’t recall writing that
That’s because I wrote it.
Funny things happen when people get paranoid.
I don’t understand why it quoted you, thejudge1. As Steve says, he wrote it.
Dubai Thunder got a Racing Post Rating of 102 for winning a maiden on a ploughed field the other week. That leaves him just 4 lbs behind Cliffs Of Moher on the latter’s official mark. Surely that leaves Cliffs Of Moher fans cacking themselves at 4/1, when the Godolphin horse is 20/1, yet so close in the ratings?
Getting more scared of Dubai Thunder the closer we get to the day. Only potential monsters in the field are this guy + Eminent IMO, remain unconvinced by anything else. The forecast?
I come on here and provide solid evidence Eminent will stay. Joliff tells me “he won’t stay…end of”, then calls me “patronising”! LOL
Then Steve says a two-time winner over 1m is a non-stayer of 1 mile, and that it would be stupid to run a once-raced horse in the Derby. I point out such a horse won the Derby just over 20 years ago + nearly again 11 years ago and I get told “don’t be a dick”
I get better discussions on Twitter, and that’s saying something.
Enjoy tickling each other’s balls
I keep looking at 4/1 Rhodedendron (likely sic), thinking that’s a huge price. Will improve a bundle for a run + will have the assistance of Mr Moore.
I wonder if Newmarket doesn’t play to Hydrangea’s strengths.
I don’t think Eminent will stay. We hear that the trainer is bullish, but he was bullish going into the Guineas and was run out of it. He’s not for me hear and only has a wafer thin advantage on ratings from some others.
His ratings have been gained over 1m and will improve for an extra 2f + likely more. The others have gained their ratings at 10f, so Eminent deserves a + at the very least.
I agree mostly with everything else you’ve written.
I don’t see why they wouldn’t run Dubai Thunder either. Obviously we have 10% of the information they have, but given the way the field looks, I think it’d definitely be worth a punt.
Btw it’s spelt here* ;)
Anyhow, I would say it would be utter stupidity to take a promising horse and pitch it into a Derby on second start.
Steve’s clearly never heard of Lammtarra or the unlucky Hala Bek
Eminent won’t get the trip in my opinion. I don’t think he even got home in the Guineas to be honest.
LOL
The horse definitely weakened in the Guineas. I am sure individual sectional timing would prove that. Laugh if you wish. He won’t last 12F
So first a 2-time winner over 1 mile is a non-stayer of 1 mile, now all horses who ever weakened in races ever did so because they didn’t stay.
LOL
Is this the standard of debate on here now?
Eminent won’t get the trip in my opinion. I don’t think he even got home in the Guineas to be honest.
LOL
You’ve dug a nice big hole for yourself there Zarkava when Eminent is floundering in the final 2 furlongs…he’s a miler, end of.
Nothing like a sweeping statement made with zero research behind it to trump any other argument someone might come up with
It gives encouragement to Cliffs Of Moher and Venice Beach backers if the ‘lads’ believe they don’t need Churchill.
In addition to my post above…
Before this year, AOB also won the 2000 Guineas in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012 and 2015.
From those years, he only also won the Derby in 2002 and 2012 and their 2000 Guineas winner only ran in 2012.
So no, it gives no encouragement whatsoever.
I’d be wary of this “news” from AOB. This just seems like PR to tell us how quick the horse is, and how unlikely he is to stay, simply to prepare the excuses should he run and not stay.
Having said that, Camelot is the only AOB Guineas winner to win the Derby. The tried-and-failed experiment with King of Kings in ’98 may have burnt them.
Is OK I took the 40s when Triptych recommended him
Well done, you’ve done significantly better than me!
You’d be encouraged listening to Martyn Meade today as well. He still has a lot of faith in his horse – his only concern is the 12f. Might it be just a tiny bit too far…..?
What’s that adage? “If your horse is definitely going to stay 12f on pedigree, he’s too slow to win the Derby”
I mean there have been stamina doubts about practically every Derby winner in my lifetime. That’s part of the fun. And it’s also highly ironic that everybody dismisses the horses who’ve won over 12f pre-Derby as too slow! There were huge doubts about Sir Percy, Sea The Stars, New Approach, Australia. It seems like if a horse preps over 1m 2f, there are few stamina doubts. But if a horse preps over 1m, there are huge stamina doubts. That’s just stupid. You’d have to be a proper idiot to think Eminent wouldn’t get 10f, so if he ran over 10f and won, there’d be no stamina doubts? Total lack of common sense and logic IMO.
Just had another look at the 2000 guineas video to see if there was something I missed re Eminent.
Well he didn’t get a great run through the race, however you’d think a staying type wouldn’t lose his position at the end of the race and be staying on better than he was. Even in a slowly run race.
He basically got passed by dream castle in the final furlong. That doesn’t strike me as a horse that is screaming out for 1 mile four. There’s mixed messages on his pedigree as his half sibling never really went anywhere near middle distances.
My feeling now is that he was overrated going into the guineas and perhaps he’s just not that good.
LOL
They went a slow gallop.
Who’s that going to suit at the business end? The speedier types or the ones who need further?
You also must have missed the point he got squeezed by Barney Roy and Al Wukair and Crowley had to stop riding and cost him a length, perhaps a little more.
As for “overrated” LOL fastest Craven winner ever, in which he beat the Racing Post Trophy winner + French Guineas 3rd, and Dante 2nd. If you’d like to show me a piece of form from any of the likely Derby runners that is better than that, I’d love to see it.
Is OK I took the 40s when Triptych recommended him
Well done, you’ve done significantly better than me!
Eminent won’t get the trip.
Based on…?
Plenty of stamina there.
You’d have hoped for a better run from Eminent in the 2000 guineas though surely?
I only joined his fan club about 10 days ago. Pre-2000 I didn’t think he was quick enough for the 2000 and so it proved, but as someone else said, they went a dawdle – that was hardly going to suit a horse who’s bred to stay much further. Actually in all 3 career runs so far, they’ve gone a dawdle in every one. I think the last of the 12/1 is going to go tonight. Don’t overthink it – he wins.
