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OurVic, this isn’t 606. There isn’t a daily thread and there are subsections to the forum. Your post should go here.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Casual Conqest’s Newmarket defeat. He was already a gp1 winner
Hmmm his biggest win to date is the Group 2 Derrinstown.
Bet 365 restricted my brothers account and he didn’t even win anything. He was doing really small stakes on forecasts, so they restricted his account because he was on the right track. Maybe he would have got a bob or two in the end up, but 6 x 30 pence forecasts ain’t gonnae have them handing out p45s.
What a joke they are.
Graeme, old boy. You will have to explain this a bit more to me than just the usual "this that or tother put this on once upon a time’.
Someone came on here not so long ago and said GG.com were unprofessional in terms of their ability to notify custormers of their"horses alert" running.
Again, I found this complete bullshit as GG.Com have never failed to notify me.
If you want to be seen as anything other than a spammer, please tell us what the hell your going on about with bet 365 – I have only ever found them kind and willing to take whatever mickey mouse bet I may place?
People aren’t thick beleive it or not, and can tell when someone is up for a laugh?
Have to agree with Marble I’m afraid. If I’m not using Bet365 or Betfair, then I’m not betting (ante-post excluded obviously).
The problem is that if they get Golden Sword and/or Freemantle to go off like a bat out of hell and stretch Sea The Stars’ stamina to the limit, they’ll be shooting themselves in the foot since it’ll have almost the same effect on Rip Van Hypele.
What is it about trends that particularly interests you and does the Eclipse lend itself well to your approach?
I find them to be more eye-opening than simply looking at the form. It’s interesting to see how different races have better records with certain types of runners, and it also puts me off having bets in certain races which appear to be generally weak or muddling affairs. Some trends I can’t explain (Actually I try and shy away from those. Several races
seemingly
have a bias against fillies, but how does the gender of a horse determine how well he/she’ll run?), but the vast majority of my trends have reasoning behind them.
Easily the most interesting thing about them though is the genius that is Aidan O’Brien. He breaks trends for fun, and I don’t really think you can fully appreciate how good he really is without looking at trends. 3 examples;
a) 10 of the last 14 Eclipse winners had won that season. 3 of the 4 who hadn’t were trained by O’Brien.
b) 13 of the last 14 Irish 1000 Guineas winners had either run in the 1000 Guineas or won LTO. Imagine did neither and won. 75 other runners with the same criteria against them tried – just 8 placed.
c) From 19 Arc runners to have had 7 or more starts that season, 17 were unplaced, Borgia finished a distant 3rd and Dylan Thomas won.
The man defies belief. There are many more incredible things he’s done but those are just off the top of my head. I’ve not done proper Irish Derby trends yet but he’s had some incredible finishing positions from horses with 0 talent and form. Roosevelt for example. How the hell did this 150/1 shot, who finished 4th in a Classic Trial at Gowran Park as a prep, beat home the Derby runner-up, the horse that would win the St. Leger 2 months later and a Racing Post Trophy runner-up? He did it the following year too. Tycoon. 150/1 shot, hadn’t run since finishing 5th in the Jean Luc, and he beat home the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from the Derby. Even Bashkirov last year. Ok he wasn’t placed, but he got damn close to the front 3.
In terms of how well they apply to the Eclipse, it’s all very well looking back at the last 14 runnings and finding patterns and trends, but at the end of the day, I don’t think you can be sure until you apply them beforehand and see where they get you.
I’ve had a good start wtoday with Mastercraftsman (big deal, Aidan O’Brien-trained 6/4F having his 2nd start of the season), but let’s see what happens with Lahaleeb later on.
apart from binocular getting best 2miler anyone un happy about the rest of the top rated?
2009 Awards
Champion two-and-a-half-mile Hurdler – Big Buck’s (174)
Champion two-and-a-half-mile Chaser – Exotic Dancer & Voy Por Ustedes (171)I don’t like these at all. With regards to 2 1/2m hurdles, there’s only 1 that really matters – at Aintree. Big Buck’s didn’t even run over 2 1/2m!
The same goes for 2 1/2m chases. Voy Por is just an extremely overrated horse who wins all these soft races. He got beat in the only one that matters and as such, Imperial Commander should be the undisputed Champion 2 1/2m chaser IMO.
ZARKAVA, that name flatters you by the way! the idea is to encourage you to think for yourself and perhaps use a bit of foresight! Do you not have an idea of an Eclipse sort?
I wouldn’t recommend getting into any conflicts about Zarkava with me, I really wouldn’t. You’d be getting into an ‘argument’ that you wouldn’t win if you had 9 lives, so just don’t.
Well I actually agree that Mastercraftsman is a great Eclipse prospect at the moment, but I’d be extremely foolish to nail my sail to that mast at the moment. Given their lack of milers this season, it’d be extremely easy for them to run either Westphalia or Rip Van Winkle. They’d both be a lot more likely to get the trip at the moment than MCM. Giant’s Causeway took a similar route on his way to victory in 2000, although he had a prep in the Athasi and ran in the St. James’.
However, the ‘Hawk Wing’-type, Rip Van Winkle, could quite easily be outstayed in the Derby by something, and they’ll have no choice but to drop him in trip.
My trends are saying that there are still 13 contenders for the race, MCM included, but I won’t be making any firm choices until after the Prince of Wales’. Even then there’ll probably be 4 or 5 selections on my trends.
Cormack, any chance of changing the thread title to ‘The Mastercraftsman ‘shrine”?
What on earth is the point of a Coral Eclipse thread if you’re only going to mention one horse that hasn’t even run over further than a mile yet? IMO your interests would be better served playing Starters Orders 3 than betting.
And no, Mastercraftsman won’t get 1m 4f in time.
I’ve been here for less than a week and already your posts give me a headache. Can you use a bit more humility please?
Hmmm I actually think that he’ll be campaigned over 10f if he won’t be getting soft ground. I’d run him in the St. James’ and then the Eclipse.
Ashram’s been withdrawn, leaving Delegator + Mastercraftsman as the 2 horses on the trends. Using the skinny trend of 2000 Guineas 2nd + 3rds being defeated, you have a clear pick in Mastercraftsman, but IMO backing him at 5/2 on this ground is a bit silly. You could dutch them, but you’d be backing them odds-on and that’s not something I want to do on heavy ground when a mudlark could run amok.
I’ve not had a bet but great to see applying the trends strictly has thrown up the winner.
IMO the bookies are doing this to attract money for Rip Van Hype. He’s won them big money twice now and given his iffy-looking pedigree he can win them bundles yet again.
Yeah it’s a valid point, David, but if there’s enough of a trend to go on, like there is/are for the Coventry + Norfolk, it’s worth following. Never go against a run
. I’ll certainly approach both races (also the Queen Mary + Albany) with caution and see what happens. If the trends get mullered, then I’ll know where I stand.Knew he’d been sold to HK but I thought the RP covered Hong Kong sprints in the form?
Anyway the HK Jockey Club website’s not even finding him, so I presume his name’s been changed.
Yeah I was afraid it’d be a total waste of time. The trends for the Tatts tell us nothing really. You do want to be backing a Group 1 winner though. Only 2 winners (since it reached Group 1 status) hadn’t, and one of those (Black Sam Bellamy) was in a reach where none of them had. The other was Rebelline in 2002.
Using that trend leaves us with Cima De Triomphe, Thewayyouare and Lush Lashes.
The 2nd trend is a bit iffy but it doesn’t help us narrow down the choice so I won’t mention it.
I’m sticking by Cima De Triomphe as my selection, but if he doesn’t run for whatever reason, Thewayyouare will be my selection I think, simply on the basis that the trend (note – singular) rules out all the other runners and Lush Lashes put in a dire run on her sole start on heavy ground. Thewayyouare’s at least won (a Group 1 as well) on what was described as ‘very soft’ by French standards (equivalent to good to soft, soft in places).
Ooops, no, I take that back. 5/2 is a pathetic price. Steer well clear of the 2000 Guineas + Tatts IMO, but ONLY if Cima De Triomphe doesn’t run.
Is worth noting also that the only time we were given a shock winner of the race (Rebelline in 2002), the ground was described as soft. Nayef finished 3rd as 8/11F and Tobougg unplaced as 4/1 2nd fav.
9 Ballydoyle
3 Bolger colts
Montaff
Loch Long
Kite Wood
Crowded House
Father Time
South Easter
Debussy who is doubtful.Wouldnt surprise me if the runners went into single figures.
Obvious emission but Sea The Stars. Would be shocked to see single figures tbh.
Sea The Stars, Gan Amhras, Fame and Glory, Black Bear Island, Golden Sword + Masterofthehorse I’d say are the definite without a doubt runners, probably even Rip Van Winkle too. That’s 7.
Kite Wood and Freemantle are likely runners too, meaning 9, and surely one of the other stables (yes, they do exist) will have runners too. I’d say we’re looking at a 14-odd runner field. Debussy, Father Time, South Easter, Montaff, etc, just aren’t good enough.
A small point on something else but does anybody find the RP comments section to be a poor man’s Betfair forum? Look at this rubbish;
I backed both STS and FAG months ago so I have the race fully covered. The only horse that worries me slightly is Age Of Aquarius. Other than that the rest just aren’t good enough to win a Derby.
The last sentence makes a bit of sense I suppose but the first 2 are just farcical.
