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I would still prefer her to Richard Hills in a finish
Anyway,she will probably concentrate on training if Shiekh Mo ofers her the job
4-5 (1.
with Springer!Horse was not so impressive this time,changed is legs at least three times in the stretch (Got a bit of a scratchy action), trainer says he`s got a tooth abcess! I guess they will take it easy with him this year,he should be an even better 4-y-o as long as Godolphin don`t get hold of him
I thought Martin Dwyer on TOP LOCK rode a good race despite the horse losing his place on the final corner (outpaced!), i thought Murtagh was useless on KING OF ROME (Didn`t take advantage of a good start box and fell asleep at the back),everything he did was wrong,AKIEM player the mule at the start and ran accordingly, i wouldn`t wannt to take anything away from KAMSIN as he looks to have plenty of scope and German horses tend to be late developers,however,with the second horse being OSTLAND and the race being run at a crawl this years German Derby probably leads to more questions than answers!!
Interestingly TOP LOCK payed about the same for a place as BlueSQ where offering on the win!!
What was quite comical is how long they took to get the horses in the start box,this is a German thing but doesn`t usually happen at the big meetings,my mate called me about 10 minutes before the race and made me laugh when he said “its about time they got them in the starting box,the going will be heavy at this rate“ (just started to Rain)
MDeering says:That’s where my knowledge of the form ends…so let me have a stab!!
The going will probably be riding Good-Soft , if yesterdays racing is to be a guide i wouldn`t expect a track bias and i would expect the runners to use the whole width of the track in the straight!!
I`m a big “layer“ of LIANG KAY not because of the distance,simply because i don`t think he`s good enough,the race he won in Cologne was run at a crawl and it seemed to suit him better than most, in fact i would be happy to bet that AKIEM is in front of him today,this horse was outpaced when the sprint for home started,off a strong pace i would expect him to stay on into a place!!
Saying that many of the Derby trials where run at a crawl including the Bavarian classic won by WALZERTRAUM,whilst he picked up well i can`t see that form being worth much at this level,in fact i`ve still got a picture in my head of him struggling home by a neck from SENORITA LOMITA,so despite Dettoris presence i don`t think so,the horse i would take out of the classic is the 4th KAMSIN,this horse is obviously highly rated by his trainer,he`s had 4 runs and never started over even money,stronger pace will suit him today.
IL DIVO has been supplemented at a cost of €50,000, his trainer is in really good form so he might benefit from this feel good factor,could run into a place!!
SOUM won a moderate race in Chantilly lto,before that he was put in his place by the 42 rated MOUNT HELICON in a course B race,he needs to improve quite a bit!!
KING OF ROME is representing Ballydoyle, 5-2 fav with Blue Square but available at 6-1 in Germany,his third to COLLECTION in a listed is half decent in the context of this race,however,the way he stopped in the Derby puts a big question mark on todays trip,still,with the stable in form i would go somewhere in the middle with his price (4-1),should be in the top 5!
Now onto my idea of the likeliest winner, TOP LOCK,his 1.75l third to CAMPANOLOGIST (Ran well in yesterdays Eclipse) is the best form on offer, this horse is progressive,the 1m4F is optimum,he`s travelled over well and start box 14 is unlikely to be negative in a race where he will race prominent and the field are likely to aim for the centre of the track in the “backstretch“,this race as always been his target,whilst the Germans are putting him up as a fast ground horse i don`t think the going will act as a negative,if you look at his fathers line “NAYEF“ he won on everything thrown at him!!,his jockey Martin Dwyer is very capable and this for me is a very strong bet at an exagerated price!!
the likes of Mr Springer, Digibet (Albers) and Mr Leip have been very helpful in averaging my bet out at 9-1……..Now its down to you TOP LOCK!!
The German pundits appear focused on LIANG KAY, i think you will see how wrong they are at about 1800 hours!!
International copyright issues are very complicated,even within the EU their appears to be many discrepencies!!
Look at http://www.onextwo.com and you will find a video archive of all the races shown on Racing UK, this is a German Bookmaker site thus commercially seen they have more to gain than a “free for all` Youtube!!
Well the Williams sisters are not what they where although Venus seems to be on a run at the moment,When you get her on a good day Elena Dementieva is a better tennis player than all of them and at least she`s improved her 2nd service, on the downside she`s a bit like Holland in that she will throw in a stinker at some stage,although Radwanska as to play the bull (Kuznetsova) in the next round i would be tempted to take a chance on her, she`s had an easy journey so far,her fitness is assured and she`s probably the biggest improver on the womens tour, if she can get past Kuznetsova she will have the chance to go all the way!
WTA is a money making machine if you can get covered at the right price,the latter part is not always easy though!!
I priced up last friday the first 64 games,theirs been a few movers as tongues wag, anyway a few thoughts:-
Klara Zakopalova is no spring chicken but we know where we are with her and that should be good enough to beat the lesser of the Radwanskas (Ursula), 1,6 at Betfair is very acceptable
Timea Bacsinszky should have the beating of Julie Ditty, the latter as lost 7 first round games on the bounce and the younger Bacsinszky appears to have the game for grass, i priced her at 1,45 so the 1,65 as to be taken!!
Mirza should be a tap in against Castano so for acca builders she`s perfect!
The 18-y-o Russian Alisa Kleybanova should have a straightforward task against Obziler, not sure if her piercing is made for Wimbledon!!!!
Petra Cetkovska is no mug on grass and she`s having a good season, her opponent is no mug either (Tanasugarn) as she proved when winning the Dutch grass tournement last week,however,the market as over-rated her chance on the back of a good week,lets not forget she was put in her place by Bethanie Mattek a couple of weeks ago and if Mattek was playing Cetkovska she wouldn`t be such a big fav, so the 2,7 Cetkovska looks excellent value!
Erakovic as the perfect game on grass and should outbattle Krajicek,the latter is no mug but she`s been going out far too cheaply in my opinion!!
Casey Dellacqua is a steal at 2.2 against the non performing Patty Schneider, this was my first bet , i had some 2,45 which is way to big, Dellacqua is 31-12 on grass!!
Alize Cornet is 1,63 at the time of writing,that`s a massive price for the gritty French girl,her opponent qualified well but she lacks the class of Cornet!!
Weak favs that might be worth taking on:
Mauresmo……injured and downward spiral,her opponent Ashley Harkleroad is a bit hit and miss,however,she as the game to beat the Frenchie and at least she`s a good looker!!!
Nathalie Dechy is in very poor form,shame she didn`t get a slightly better opponent,all the same at 1.27 she`s a lay as i will get my money back on her later is she manages to get through!
Stay clear
Chekvatadze……..Inconsistant
Nicole Vaidisova……lost the plot ,looked like being top 5 material but as lost all confidence.
I`ve bet Sharapova to win the competition because i can`t see where any serious opposition will come from!!
These are just a few of my opinions!!
You could say we know a little about COURTHOUSE STEPS
MOSLES CABARI and MAREK and maybe a little about IMBATIDA in the first at Frankfurt this evening (just considering whether to go in a short sleeved shirt)!!Quite a few German trained horses running in Compiegne today!
Thanks again Parlo for your time
Interesting race to watch but the market is probably on the mark with regards to FLEETING SPIRIT, i can pick a few positives and a few negatives in what`s she`s shown to date.
NEGATIVES
Looks a bit highly strung
Will struggle to get a clear passage if she shows same antics as LTO (ie miss break)
POSITIVES
Is clearly the fastest horse in the race
Came from behind to win at Haydock which isn`t easy
Going conditions are near to perfect
Stiff 5 furlongs should prove optimum
Top jockey
With regards to the others, i can`t ever remember getting an horse more wrong than DANDY MAN, i thought he was an absolute tap in LTO and he ran like a pig (I know they made excuses!!),he too has optimum conditions but ive forgiven him once too often, KINGSGATE NATIVE ran a cracker on his 2-y-o debut and progressed to win a group one and run a find 2nd in the LÀbbaye on a track that wouldn`t have suited,it will be interesting to see him run again,the Aussies don`t really interest me especially in the light of what MDEERING as put forward,CAPTAIN GERRARD was very disappointing in France on going he should have enjoyed,BENBAUM is a credit to his trainer and i expect him to run his race and finish thereabouts, im not going to take the form of EQUIANO seriously despite him being in front of a few LTO, that race didn`t run true imo!
Lets get it on!
Hi Parlo,
Danke nochmals!
With regards to comparing UK / German ratings it`s only the top end thats interesting as horses tend to meet at group level, the odd exception is when a horse from the UK moves to Germany and obtains an h`cap mark, a recent example being SOPHIE GARDENS!
The French/German ratings are even more interesting because of the daily raids,speaking from personal experience we have an horse rated 63 in Germany and 27 in France, one of our other horses is rated 36 in France but doesn`t have a rating in Germany, i used to use the scale 30=69 whereafter the French tend to knit tighter thus i couldn`t say we would have 81/82 in Germany!
What`s very interesting to me is “Claimers“ in France thus im trying to compare h`cap marks between French/German trained horses, claiming races appear to make up 25% of the races run in France nowadays!
Cheers
Tony
Parlo,
Thanks for that!!
Any chance of getting the list down to UK 60?, the lower level interests me when looking at claimers etc,thanks again for your time!
Will be surprised if they go for the Prix de LÀbbaye, Longchamps 5 furlongs suits horses that lay up with the pace!
I wouldn`t be surprised to see this horse turn up in the Goldene Peitsche atBaden Baden, Group two status, ran in late August, 6 Furlongs on a track that will suit against inferior opposition, perfect learning curve!
I don`t think Candy will overface the horse this year as he looks like he still needs experience, before saturdays race Corrybrough was rated 110 which seems a fair reflection of what he`s shown on the track,still,he looks to have plenty of scope so he should find the other 10lbs needed to make a group one performer!
Darren,
With regards to FIEPPES SHUFFLE why don`t you look at Lyon Parilly, the going is usually good and the conditions of the races would allow him to run,the only horses that run their are ones with over inflated h`cap marks so you should get an easy pick up, Toulouse would be interesting if you where a little closer,however,having seen the Van der Recke horses running in Mijas (Near Marbella) this would be like a trip to the local Grocery shop!
Nancy would be another option especially as it suits front runners,however,i would be reluctant to run anything at this track as they don`t do much with the ground!
Auteuil is a great track but you need something that likes cut,even in the middle of summer i`ve never seen them race on anything other than soft or heavy!
Potentially the best chaser to come out of Germany is AIR FORCE ONE, i`m not keen on ex flat horses jumping fences but this one is a true natural,i guess theirs always an exception !
I`ve been backing Croatia for a while now, in fact against Austria they are my biggest football bet of all time, the 2.06 available at the weekend was way too big and im averaged out at 2,03 which takes into account the half ball Asian h`cap , Croatia are leagues better than Austria and i will never forget seeing the expression of Slaven Bilic when they where paired with Austria,i think he had to take a very big bite of his tongue!!
Because this is the European championships its easier to get large stakes covered than my usual dwelling ground of Scandanavian 2nd and third league football !!, im not saying its the “bet of all time“ but its close ,home advantage for the Austrians doesn`t bother me as Croatia will have plenty of support (Many Croatians live in Austria and travelling between the two countries is a car ride!),
Austria are easily exposed by decent teams and Croatia fit into that catagory!
Incidently, ive also backed Croatia to win the group and tournement (Realistic stakes though!)
Over-rated!
The most over-rated teams imo are Germany and France, the latter lack leadership and find scoring very difficult, with regards to the Germany ive seen poor teams taking their defence to parts,maybe Poland can give them a game, all the same i will be looking to lay them after the first round and by betting Croatia to win the group ive made my position clear!!
Under-rated
Almost certainly Romania, they are very well organised, bare in mind they took 4 points from Holland in qualifying and only lost to Bulgaria once qualification was assured, they have plenty of talent on the field and few injury problems, ive bet them to qualify @4,85!
Not sure
Russia are dificult to rate, in real terms England where much better than them in the away leg but still managed to get beat, Arshavin being suspended for first two games won`t help their cause, on the other hand they have a young team, Russian football is on the up and the old dog Hiddink will know how to get the best out of them, i think much will depend on how they adapt to playing Spain in their first game!
Stugglers
Sweden are big laying material whoever they play, the team is simply outdated!
Winners
Along with Croatia ive bet Italy,stregnth in depth and a big tournement mentality make them a solid bet,i very much doubt Cannavaro`s injury will stop them!
Lets get it on!
Must admit im no fan of Pan Krischbin either,however,i accept he`s not a bad race caller (German racing only),however, when it comes to large fields in France (Betting office commentary) he usually concentrates on numbers only………i simply find him a bit stiff!!
With regards to the Baron, i can understand him moving the mass of his horses to France especially if he wants to race there, at least the German racing authorities can`t take another 4% from prize money collected in other countries!
What do you think of Jens Hirschberger? His horse have been running flat all week, take SERETH, he had them all off the bridal turning for home but then stopped like he didn`t have condition!
Peter Schiergen isn`t having a very good run either,any plausible explanation?
Bit overcast this morning,here`s hoping the rain stays away!
Funny enough ANGLO im an East Midlander too , however,i must admit to always having a good standard of living irrelevent of where ive lived or whatever ive been involved in!
With regards to OVERDOSE i was sitting on the next table to the owners, they where a bit panicky before the race, i told the big boy to chill out as their wasn`t a lot in the race ! i had to avail myself to Mr Springers generosity of 2,5 on a horse i thought should be nearer to the 1,2 mark!!
First time they`ve come over to the rail this week which insinuated that they expected that the rain had got into the ground, if i was the owner i would only be looking at France from now although i might be tempted by the Golden Peitsche as its an easy pick up, the great thing with this horse is he`s very flexible with regards to surface and distance, at the same time i would look at something over 1400 metres on a turning track like Longchamp!!
With regards to Baden Baden, the quality of racing this week is appallling,just looking at saturdays card, two poor Agl 4, a dog of a chase race,the second race isn`t much better and the rest of the card lacks quality…….not sure i should be here but what the hell, it`s ok for meeting up with some friends!!
The last thing i need to get off my chest is old man “Chapman“, they should get rid of him, his commentating has become something of a joke, he can`t read a race anymore,his comments are pathetic and he`s getting the colours mixed up more often than he`s getting them right!
They`ve changed the caterers this year which should have been a good thing but it`s not…………..naja, we know where we are at with the muppets running the show!!
Non Vintage says :- Next thing we know, the government will be trying to stop the working classes from being able to drink alcohol!
Well, they managed to stop them smoking so can`t be all bad
I wouldn`t mind paying for the racing post website if Data was available earlier.
I guess some people would like to see the whole paper available online, personally, i don`t read their tipping sections but i like reading some of the funnier journalists like David Ashworth and Clement Fraud!!
All in all…………………im used to paying for things thus i wouldn`t object if the price was reasonable!
with Springer!
MOSLES 