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What do you think of this:
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=c9CqrtXJdGk
Till now Overdose won 7 from 7 races, average-distance to second around 8 lengths, yesterday he won a 3yo LR at Baden-Baden over 6f.
Over handicappers gave him a 95 kg-rating for that performance, which is equivalent to 110 lbs BHB / 115 lbs Timeform.
What might be his chance in British sprints on Pattern race-level?
WOW!! Who knew Tommo was multilingual?!!
Seriously, a very impressive performance. I don’t have a clue how the form translates, but the links below show just how good this horse is/could be.
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=dl3pO28ykIE
http://de.youtube.com/watch?v=LuXrNgj2F … re=related
Next stop, Godolphin!!
This was a decent performance.on ground that was good/firm. 2.19 seconds faster than the GAG 0 hcp later on (0-70 equivalent I suppose). Got a 71 figure from me which is my par Listed/Group winning fig. Could be interesting and should go for some UK/French races as there’s not that much money to be picked up in Germany.
Well, the ground was "4.4", which is good to soft – and Overdose was unchallenged 1 sec faster that blattling 4yo+ in the G3-event the day before on better going ("4.1").
Would be interesting to see him in Pattern-races in FR / GB during summer / autumn.
My standard times are calculated from every time I can find in Direktorium that is listed as gut (3.0 -> 4,5 I think is the range). Saturday’s going allowance was +0.79 seconds per mile and Sunday’s was +1.43 seconds per mile which suggests it did not rain and was almost certainly sunny and a little windy. I warned people on here before about the inaccuracy of the going stick in Germany and said that just because it was being introduced in the UK didn’t necessarily mean that going reports would be any better. Can any UK speed figure compilers comment on this???
My figures say it was good/firm. For it have been on the softer side of good my standard times would have to have been taken from a set of times that were all soft.Well, it was raining lightly for almost all of the afternoon at Baden-Baden.
Yes, the yardstick in Germany ist quite unreliable – an "official 4.4" indicates more likely a soft than a good going.
You know standard-times for German race-tracks? This tool is quite unknown over here.
I use the standard times to calculate speed ratings for German tracks. It is more of an art than a science but when these calculations are done properly you can find things that the betting market does not understand – for example Oriental Tiger really should run in the Arc or the ex-German runner in England that is much better than its English handicap rating suggests.
Oriental Tiger run track-record in Cologne, but a front-running horse has no chance in the "Arc" – at least Getaway and Saddex are better than OT and an Adlerflug in topform will beat him too.
Btw: I forgot to mention, that the going at Baden-Baden yesterday changed from "4.4" in the morming to "4.7" during the afternoon.
I searched for best times over 6f in blacktype races at Baden-Baden at http://www.galopp-sieger.de ("schnelle Zeiten") and found that the record time on soft going so far was 1:09.5 min – so Overdose was some 0.5 sec faster yesterday.
Wow.. The fact that he settled in the last video and does not have to lead would suggest he’ll get a mile. Its hard not to be impressed by his speed.
I’m afraid this has kind of spoiled my secret. I actually tried to buy the horse after his win in the group 2 St Laszlo Cup in Budapest last year. Unfortunately, at the time, the horse was not for sale – he’s owned by a steel company who were not keen to sell.
I’ve followed this horse since his first run – he’s actually British bred, by Starborough out of a Warning mare called Our Poppet. He was bought very cheaply at the Doncaster sales as a yearling (whisper it – 2,000 Guineas!!), He was bred by Whatton Hall Stud in Nottinghamshire, so he’s a bit like me – an East Midlander who’s done rather better in Central Europe than back in Blighty!!
All of his wins have been impressive – he started off in a class 4 maiden in Budapest, before winning in Bratislava. The St Laszlo followed, and then it was off to Austria for the Group 1 Central European Futurity, which he won in a canter. He started off the season back in Austria, and now this.
I didn’t see the race (until now – thanks for posting the link Parlo!!) as I was looking after things for Christian von der Recke at Fakenham – first time on my own – and the horse runs loose!! However, Christian felt that the jockey took maybe too wide a line, yet still won by 9 lengths!!
Overdose is expected to return to Baden-Baden for the ‘Golden Whip’ sprint (one of the biggest in Germany), and Longchamp may also be a target. However, my spies, who were at the course, tell me it might not be long before we see Overdose in England!
Darren – AngloGerman
For the sake of the growth of racing in Eastern Europe – this would be an enormous attraction if Overdose continues like he is at the moment.
I would’ve thought a season-ending crack at the l’Abbaye or Daniel Wildenstein would have been ideal.
… However, my spies, who were at the course, tell me it might not be long before we see Overdose in England!
If Sheik Mohammad intends to bid for Overdose, let’s hope he will be more successful with this acquisition than with his deals in recent times. The horse would deserve his chance in the big sprints in GB / FR, but give him a deliberate and careful preparation for these.
But this may be the solution of the problem:
huge paid horses with "huge pedigrees" failed – "good" paid horses with "humble pedigrees" become champions.
There was a real buzz at the track about this horse before the race. He went off at a for me shocking price of 4/5 but was quite simply astonishing.
If he is owned by a steel company I wouldn’t bother with running him in Germany again, for now. I’d take him straight to Royal Ascot and see how he can do against the big boys from Hong Kong and Australia. If that goes awry you can always scale back down to Germany for easier prey. No guts no glory.
If Sheik Mohammad intends to bid for Overdose, let’s hope he will be more successful with this acquisition than with his deals in recent times. The horse would deserve his chance in the big sprints in GB / FR, but give him a deliberate and careful preparation for these.
Sorry, when I said he could soon be in England, I meant running, not being owned!! I understand that Austrian based Stall Christ-Lacke have already bid for him (they bought Anton Chekhov from Coolmore), but I think they owners will hold on to him for a while yet!!
Darren – AngloGerman
There was a real buzz at the track about this horse before the race. He went off at a for me shocking price of 4/5 but was quite simply astonishing.
If he is owned by a steel company I wouldn’t bother with running him in Germany again, for now. I’d take him straight to Royal Ascot and see how he can do against the big boys from Hong Kong and Australia. If that goes awry you can always scale back down to Germany for easier prey. No guts no glory.
I actually took 24/10 early doors with Racebets, but it didn’t surprise me to see all the cash going on him.
As for not running him in Germany again, I think the owners are almost certain to go for the ‘Golden Whip’ at the Baden-Baden ‘Great Week’ during August/September, but I agree 100% with you on that one – he’s not entered in the Golden Jubilee, but I would look at supplementing him at least.
Darren – AngloGerman
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