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Maybe a bit early but i am plotting my biggest bet ever!!!
I think Croatia are to big at roughly 14/1 on betfair,my plan is to back them at 14/1(£200 win) then lay them when they qualify from the group,my question is what price would i expect if they were to win or qualify from ther group at this stage i would then lay them.
Would depend on who else had qualified and who was impressing.
At a complete guess they’d prob be somewhere between 8 to 10-ish to 1 assuming the likes of Italy, France, Germany Holland had all made it beyond the group stage also.
I think they are a cracking bet at 14/1 though Ghost.
If i got 8’s i would be very happy,might even get 7’s if one of the big guns fail to qualify from groups and there is usually one who slip up
As Corm states, it depends on who else qualifies and which other teams are playing well. Croatia have to get through their group stage first which they should do on form and are then likely to play either Portugal or the Czechs. If Croatia fail to impress in qualifying and face the Portugese who do impress then the odds on Croatia winning will not reduce by much imo and certainly not down to 7/1. May even stay at about 14’s.
One point is that Holland, Italy and France are all in the same group so one of them is going out at the first stage but it also means that two of them are very likely to progress unless the Romanians produce a miracle .
If you are so confident that Croatia will get past the group stages then you might want to consider simply betting on them to qualify for the QF’s at odds of about 2/1 ON which gives a 50% return less comm’n. Seems simpler than a risky trade but this is only my opinion
Good luck with whatever you do.
Pete
I’m realy looking forward to the Euro’s but there has hardly been any build up on TV or in the printed media. I know none of the home nations are involved but you’d have thought it’d have attracted a little more coverage than it has.
One piece of advice I’d always give for international football tournaments is look at the draw. Group B (Croatia, Germany, Poland, Austria) are paired with Group A (Czechs, Portugal, Turkey, Switzerland) in the quarters. If you take the "obvious" route (i.e. Germany 1st & Croatia 2nd in Group B, Portugal & Czech Republic in any order from Group A), for reasons like SC suggests I think you’ll get cracking value about Croatia against the winners of Group A in the QFs. It obviously isn’t great for your trading intentions if Croatia are artificially high at the quarter final stage.
On the other hand, if by some slightly anomalous permutation Croatia play Switzerland in the quarters (not impossible- the Swiss are hosts and play the right sort of football for these tournaments last time I saw them) then the Croats will be artificially short. It’s up to yourself if you are happy letting the money run should the trading opportunity not present itself.Personally, I think the group to trade on is Group C. With France playing Romania first, both Italy & Holland could hit artificially high prices after the first round of matches should they draw. I’d hold out for that eventuality, and back which one I preferred the look of outright afterwards. If they go on to win the group, they will likely have one of Sweden, Russia or Greece, and if they finish runner-up they will probably face the perennial under-achievers Spain. Good chance of a spot in the semis, and thereafter your trade’s a good’un!
Agreed. They’re far too big at 5.9 to win Group D IMO with Spain’s record of flattering to deceive in these championships. However given they’ll almost certainly have one of France, Italy or Holland in the quarters I’d pass on attempting to hunt out value at 32 the Russians to win outright.
Looks a wide open competition imo wouldnt be surprised if someone like Greece went and won it again.
But im going for a Spain vs Germany final.
With Spain and the Legend that is Fernando Torres going onto lift the trophy
Agreed, Firefox – a disappointingly parochial attitude re: publicity and merch so far.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Would depend on who else had qualified and who was impressing.
At a complete guess they’d prob be somewhere between 8 to 10-ish to 1 assuming the likes of Italy, France, Germany Holland had all made it beyond the group stage also.
hey cormack Italy France & holland all in same group can 3 still qualify out of a group?
i have always had a small bet on spain regardless of their form going into competition, France will be there as well, hopefully i can get the 50/1 i got on Baros for top scorer on some one else………
I’m going each-way on Czechs at 20/1 with Boyles (money back if they reach the final). They are in the weak half of the draw and I would be disappointed if they don’t at least reach the semi-final. They are as good as Germany (both qualified from Ireland’s group) and at 20/1, as compared to 4/1 on the Germans, they are a cracking each-way bet.
After much thought, I have decided that Thierry Henry and his pals will carry my hard earned.
France @ 8/1 to win tournament.
I think they have the strongest squad.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’m all over Germany for Euro 08.
They are experienced campaigners and unlike England, know how to get the job done in these competitions. They’ve got three quality strikers in Klose, Podolski and Gomez, a solid midfield that includes Frings and Ballack, and a reliable defence.
In fact it’s almost like I’ve put all my eggs in one basket as I’ve backed Germany outright, Germany to be top goalscorers, Germany’s group to have the most goals, Klose and Podolski to be top goalscorer etc
Let’s hope (for my sake) they don’t have a poor few weeks
Mike
now thats it getting nearer it’s depressing that not one home nation is in it, it’s 20years since Ireland were in it (only time
)so i think Spain & France are going to be my 2 bets still not sure on top scorer,….
i also keep thinking back to France winning the world cup then 2000 euro’s does anyone think Italy are capable??
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