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Where’s the 5/1 a place Inxile?
I backed him at 16/1 with the mighty Blue Square not an hour ago…
Just realised I’ve been talking complete ballcocks- 16/1 at 1/5th the odds is of course just over 3/1, which I still consider value BTW…..
I watched the horse’s previous two wins on the Morning Line. Not as visually impressive as I thought he’d be, based on all the hype. Seemed to be scrubbed along in the early stages before finding top gear.
That said, apart from Barry Hills’ Tadjeef, it’s difficult to pick out any other dangers.
I can’t see the bookmakers taking any chances with him, and will probably go off around the 1/2 mark.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
But, realistically, you’re not getting 3/1 the place, you’re getting 6/4 (assuming Inxile doesn’t win, of course) and I wouldn’t fancy taking that with Tajdeef, Philario and Hammadi in the race.
Why should it all be about prices?
I don’t want to elaborate on my argument because I’d like to know yours – that is … yours being anyone in particular.
I tried to rate horses and then take those ratings and use the figures to frame a market, then take what is best overs – for 2 months I tried a sophisticated system which DIDN’T give me three horses who I candidly thought were certs and therefore didn’t back. And I was down a little over a thousand quid because of it.
Taking 4/6 and putting a heavy stake on him and he gets beat – well … at least some pain is taking away with the fact that you thought the horse was the one to win and on top.I fear we’re back to the old value argument again….
Of course Coryborough is the most likely winner, but in my estimation his odds do not represent value. In other words in my opinion if you back 200 Corryboroughs over a year you will lose money .It is therefore reasonable to believe that one or more horses against him do represent value The fact that today those who back him are more likely to be right than I am doesn’t concern me.
There is also the possibility that I am wrong, which is still OK as long as I’m right more than I’m wrong over the year.
So you see it really is all about prices.
Gingertipster is barred from this thread BTW.Well done to Corrybrough backers. Never in much doubt. Black marks for Tajdeef who isn’t a 5f horse, merely a 6f bridle ponce.
To be honest I don’t think a sixth furlong would do any harm either.
Nice to see Philario grab third at a decent price.
- Total Posts 17716
I fear we’re back to the old value argument again….
Of course Coryborough is the most likely winner, but in my estimation his odds do not represent value. In other words in my opinion if you back 200 Corryboroughs over a year you will lose money .It is therefore reasonable to believe that one or more horses against him do represent value The fact that today those who back him are more likely to be right than I am doesn’t concern me.
There is also the possibility that I am wrong, which is still OK as long as I’m right more than I’m wrong over the year.
So you see it really is all about prices.
Gingertipster is barred from this thread BTW.Carv
Doesn’t all that rather assume that all 4/7 shots have the same chance (much like GT does
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Any 4/7 shot that wins like a 1/3 chance was over-priced, and that isn’t just a perception.I have formed the opinion that Corrybrough is not quite top class – and would be found wanting against the like of Fleeting Spirit, Benbaun & co.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I would find it hard to form an opinion like that atleast until I saw him run in a group one, but I supose his few runs to date have been enough for you Himself?
Yes.
Of course, it may be that I am being slightly premature in my assertion and have underestimated the horse; especially at this stage of the season. I take the view that his running style ;allied to his lack of early pace, just might find the colt out when he comes up against better horses.
I could be wrong.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I fear we’re back to the old value argument again….
Of course Coryborough is the most likely winner, but in my estimation his odds do not represent value. In other words in my opinion if you back 200 Corryboroughs over a year you will lose money .It is therefore reasonable to believe that one or more horses against him do represent value The fact that today those who back him are more likely to be right than I am doesn’t concern me.
There is also the possibility that I am wrong, which is still OK as long as I’m right more than I’m wrong over the year.
So you see it really is all about prices.
Gingertipster is barred from this thread BTW.Carv
Doesn’t all that rather assume that all 4/7 shots have the same chance (much like GT does )?.
Any 4/7 shot that wins like a 1/3 chance was over-priced, and that isn’t just a perception.It’s easy to say afterwards that a 4/7 shot should have been 1/3. The difficulty is holding that opinion beforehand and being right enough of the time to make money. In my opinion it is extremely hard to make money out of odds-on shots long-term and much more profitable, generally speaking, to find a reason to take them on. Your anti-value thread didn’t last too long I notice Reet…..
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It’s easy to say afterwards that a 4/7 shot should have been 1/3. The difficulty is holding that opinion beforehand and being right enough of the time to make money. In my opinion it is extremely hard to make money out of odds-on shots long-term and much more profitable, generally speaking, to find a reason to take them on. Your anti-value thread didn’t last too long I notice Reet…..
Carv
I think you’re missing the point somewhat?
It isn’t (imo) about predicting a horse’s sp, but about how accurately one can predict its chance of winning – unlike value, something which has a tangible answer after every result, regardless of what the market said.
Even a dyed-in-the-wool value punter should surely recognise that, if their predictions are 50% out on one horse in this manner, particularly the favourite, then something isn’t right in the State of Denmark – whether or not they win or lose on the race?
A personal thing I know, but I find it far more fruitful spending my time pondering why a horse I didn’t back won 5l rather than cogitating the prices of the next race.ps The anti-value thread was probably set up with the wrong criteria to start with, and the paucity of qualifying horses led me to getting involved in a number of minor races I had no real interest in, but I shall resurrect it in your honour, albeit with different parameters, and no doubt equally as turgid!
Will be surprised if they go for the Prix de LÀbbaye, Longchamps 5 furlongs suits horses that lay up with the pace!
I wouldn`t be surprised to see this horse turn up in the Goldene Peitsche atBaden Baden, Group two status, ran in late August, 6 Furlongs on a track that will suit against inferior opposition, perfect learning curve!
I don`t think Candy will overface the horse this year as he looks like he still needs experience, before saturdays race Corrybrough was rated 110 which seems a fair reflection of what he`s shown on the track,still,he looks to have plenty of scope so he should find the other 10lbs needed to make a group one performer!
Didn’t see the race, though I note he was pretty well backed from 10/11.
Until he is up aginast group horses it is difficult to be dogmatic. I think he can prove group class and hopefully group 1 standard.
See what kind of benchmark we get in the G1’s sprints at Royal Ascot.
Unfotunately I put Cory in a treble with Portuagal yesterday (blown out) and Bankable on Wed.
Zip
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