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I might be forced to eat my words a bit!:
There is no rain forecast in Cheltenham for the next 4 days, every chance that the ground will dry up sufficiently for one or two such as Tarotino, time will tell, but as someone said Cheltenham is invariably good to soft (perfect jumping ground).
+2 now – won’t be posting tomorrow so I will put my fancy up now – Hexham, RIGUEZ DANCER, who unfortunately fell last time but will have hopefully brushed up on his jumping at home for this – Murphy maintains the fact the horse could be a decent novice chaser this season and next but will need to win tomorrow to back that up. Around 3/1 I would expect, he’ll be my nap of the day.
Yes to some extent, you obviously have to contextualise each race as it comes though.
1/7 at a difficult track as mentioned, with 5lb penalty on testing ground, made two or three bad mistakes when he won at Plumpton last time and wasn’t at all fluent, in probably a worse race that this, up against three completely unexposed types in Comprimario from a stable notorious for its exploits, Stormy Morning a flat winner, and Maskateer also from the flat who could improve infinitely over hurdles….1/7 with these factors considered was a crazy price IMO, just that McCoy was booked also.
2 from 2 there, interesting that the front runners seem to be winning at Southwell at the moment, the kick back causing those held up a problem perhaps? Will be an interesting trend for the remainder of the card…
Agree with a few there especially Tri Chara whose yard is flying.
Zeffirelli in the 2.00 is on its lowest mark and has bits and pieces of form for the Quinn yard, could be an ew bet to nothing at around 14/1.
My play comes in the 3.00 at Southwell, and out of the two fancies that I have, as noted on the AW thread, Reg Hollinshead runners are ones to watch at the minute and his sole flagship TRI CHARA can triumph today at around 4/1. The other contender that I noted for ew purposes is Golden Dixie, who is on its lowest ever rating on 55, and ran respectably last time over C&D. 14/1 is appealing.
As far as Tri Chara is concerned, Graham Gibbons might’ve made an error in judgement when favourite last time as he seemed to kick for home a bit too soon and got caught late. Dropped a further 1lb for that, and has promosing apprentice David Kenny on board today taking a further 7lb off and looks well treated. Cool Sands is also a danger on a cascading mark, but at these weights and considering Hollinshead’s blistering form, Tri Chara gets the vote.
Ben, the same applies for Razor Royale and favourite Atouchbetweenacara – all three all progressive types who all require to brush up on their jumping especially in a big field such as this – and all three will have to defy a higher mark to win also. At this moment in time, I have two ante post bets on RR and Chapoturgeon as I feel their prices will probably contract by a few points come Saturday (and I don’t think ground is a huge factor for either of them, unlike some).
Halcon Genelardais looks a banker for a place for sure.
However, the way Beroni has won his last two races sees him a worthy favourite for this, a very classy stayer for this season and next.
I also like fellow Irish raider Arbor Supreme who is an extremely consistent horse and jumps and stays well, vital at Chepstow in this slog. 20/1 is an appealing eachway price.
Yes obviously inexperienced and a pain to train, butdefinitely one to watch, but probably on the Northern circuit in a relatively moderate maiden hurdle. He was very decent on the flat however, but sometimes flat form translated to hurdling doesn’t always work.
I can’t believe the horse is favourite, especially at 5/1. Tim Vaughan has recently obtained the horse and although he is a decent up and coming trainer, he doesnt have big race winners – this horse may have routed some moderate types in a below average Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time such as Private Be and Mr Boo, but prior to that was beaten by a 116 rated horse in Malko de Beaumont, and fell the race before that at Kempton. He looks progressive in some respect, but Not a worthy favourite in the slightest for me.
Those two horses mentioned apart, an eachway bet looks to be Pomme Tiepy, who came 5th in the Irish Grand National last April, and although this trip is very much the minimum for her, she has stamina assured. She is still relatively unexposed and if her jumping holds up, then 33/1 looks appealing if she goes to post.
I wouldn’t discount Tarotino either at 16/1. Unsuited in the PP last time on soft ground, if getting better ground this time around, he could be a completely different proposition. Unexposed also, and although the King yard isnt firing yet by its usual standards, it has started to turn the corner and Tarotino shouldnt be underestimated.
Note – Reg Hollinshead has had 3 winners today at Wolverhampton and Lingfield – his yard seems to do well on the AW over the Winter especially in December, must take notice of his runners for the remainder of the week.
Have to agree with your assessment there, I had a look at the race yesterday and picked out Chapoturgeon and Razor Royale as the two against the field. The way RR won last time at Cheltenham in a competitive class 2 handicap suggested he is rekindling his 2007 form where he looked to have a very bright future indeed, beating Nenuphar Collonges and finishing close to Aigle D’or and Forpaddytheplasterer. If Twiston=Davies has ironed out sketchy jumping, especially in a highly competitive heat such as this, he has a decent chance at 10/1 (I can’t have the favourite or second favourite).
