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Loss of -2 now, win % of only 14% – by the end of December my target is for <30% so I am in need of some winners and fast!
Disappointing that Plumpton has fallen foul to the weather as there were one or two runners that took my eye last night, and the Northern card duo of Ayr and Catterick do provide one or two promising types (Alegralil and Bedlam Boy) but at prohibitive odds, so my attention will turn to the top rescheduled card at Fairyhouse.
After reading Noel Meade’s stable tour last night (obviously have to take the comments with a pinch of salt sometimes), but he seems to like his horse PANDORAMA a lot, labelling him the ‘class horse’ of his yard at the moment. The race of course is a hugely competitive one, with no less than 5 LTO winners with the remainder coming 2nd. Even so, I have doubts about some with regard to the heavy going (Jered and Pesoto may [prefer slightly faster ground), and some with the trip (Alpha Ridge, Mr. Warbucks and Pesoto again, although it is not without question that they could improve for the trip, but stamina needs to be assured beforehand IMO in this ground). Of the main protagonists in the betting, this leaves one horse where there are few or little negatives in my mind, flawless apart from being defeated by the very smart Mikael D’Haguenet, he showed that he has bravery as well as class to win a competitve race at Punchestown last time in similar bottomless ground. Perhaps the only slight negative is how well he will get on with Condon today as his normal partner Paul Carberry is absent but I don’t think this will be a big issue. There is no telling how far Pandorama can go in the novice chasing ranks, and I think could play a big part in whatever he goes for at Cheltenham. The 4/1 on offer looks big to me with respect to the form outlined, he should be more around the 2/1 mark.
An also ran unfortunately, but there is a big priced winner out there somewhere! Back to the drawing board again for me.
Loss of -1 now.
Another pretty ordinary day’s racing in store at Hereford, Southwell and Lingfield. Although a very mundane and poor race, the Hereford 2.40 has an interesting horse for eachway purposes, QUEL BRUERE for the very small McPherson yard. The race brings together some very uninspiring individuals indeed, and with likely favourite Folie Dancer a NR, with not many horses with recent or any form at all, the formation of the market looks rather unsettled and an opportunity to find something with a bit of value. At first glance, QB’s form is nondescript, pulling up last time and still a maiden. However, when delving deeper, there are two pieces of form to note, one, finishing 6th to the promising Weird Al this time last year, and finishing 2nd in a decent enough race in France on soft ground when with G Macaire. Although recently leaving O Sherwood’s yard and joining quite an obscure stable, the booking of one of my favoured jockeys David England (although finding it difficult without his claim) is noteworthy and is on a reasonable mark of 100. At 5 y/o he is still unexposed and has potential to leapfrog many of these in a few seaons or so but in a race where nothing hits out I will take a chance on the 33/1 on offer with a 0.5pt e/w stake.
Well, 2nd, close but no cigar, back down to break even point now……back to the drawing board I think!
Further to my bet on Follow the Dream I’m quite keen on Always de One of Mark Johnston’s in the 3.40. Not much to note so far in the way of form but the trainer is a dab hand at improving young 2/3 y/o’s after a couple of runs and in a field where there’s a lot of dead wood and exposed types, it looks a good bet at around 3/1.
Ok so down to just +1 profit now after a few disappointments. Not the best racing today, poor all weather at Wolverhampton and two uninspiring jump cards. However, I will opt to put up FOLLOW THE DREAM (5/2 currently with b365) in the 4.10 at Wolverhampton. Clearly the best race on the card (albeit a class 5), a lot of the runners have severe stamina doubts such as Betnely Brook and Daaweitza, or could be just having a run on the flat to shake off the cobwebs for a hurdles campaign (Command Marshall, Dan Buoy), or have not tasted victory for a long time (Zuwaar, Abstract Folly), leaving just the one, progressive, in-form contender in Follow The Dream. Although on its highest mark of 57 following some good efforts at this course and a win at Chepstow back in the Summer, he is relatively unexposed at this trip following a couple of tries at 2m (resulting in a win and a 2nd) and has some potential for staying events on the AW over the Winter. The trainer Karen George has had a winner in the last week from a small horde of runners and makes the long trip from Devon for this event. At 5/2 in a race with so many negatives, it looks a decent bet.
Two poor tips in all honesty now means profit stands at +2. Not the best racing today with Fairyhouse cancelled so I’m concentrating on Carlisle, Kempton and Leicester, and will opt for DUNE RAIDER in the 2.20 Leicester.
It seems that the rain has escaped Leicester for pretty much the whole week resulting in good to soft ground, which is near enough perfect for the selection. Also, on a very feasible winning mark of 103, 1lb lower than when successful at MR in August. He has course form at the course when winning off 5lb higher mark, and has form at 3 miles so the 2m7f looks ok. Looks sure to be placed prominently by Daryl Jacob, a lot of the principals in the race look to be on high enough marks or do not have sufficient experience in chasing to be winning a handicap chase of this nature. At around 6/1, he looks a value bet.
I’m going for a big priced one today in the very competitive chase at Newbury, in the form of
NEW LITTLE BRIC
. This horse has won at Newbury before, a track which is very ‘horses for courses’, and although 12lb higher for that win, which may seem a lot, I think in this kind of race he has a chance. Gets on well with pilot Nick Schofield, Nicholls has in the past landed handicaps of this nature with the bigger priced horse of his duo or trio, and at 25/1 I’m going to take a risk that he can do it again.
Who knows what might have happened if Walsh hadn’t been unseated from Nycteos! A bad mistake at the first hurdle left the race for favourite Lie Forrit to win quite comfortably, obviously this horse looks a very promising staying hurdler in the making and could go on further.
Current profit now +3.
It may be easy to side with an odds on certainty at Newbury today in the form of Royal Mix, Punchestowns or Bellvano, but as value is what we’re seeking for (in my eyes anything above say 3/1), I will try and solve the interesting 2.05 Newbury handicap puzzle. Obvious contenders on recent form look to be the gutsy Lie Forrit who won LTO at Cheltenham, but has been collared by a further 6lb rise in the weights for a narrow enough win but looks a banker to get a place. The interesting horse in the race is Ainama, who brings solid grade 1&2 form into a handicap, but question marks over the trip and FTO, and is still on a high enough mark. The one that I like the look of is Paul Nicholls’
NYCTEOS
, who despite a near 2 year absence, looks on a good hurdles mark of 133, only 3lb higher than winning the Lanzarote LTO. He also has distance and ground form which are two real pluses. Although the potential concern is the general form of the Nicholls yard, I have no doubt that he is priming his horses for this lucrative Newbury Xmas festival and this horse will be in peak condition. A price of 10/1 in a field where only 2 or 3 horses really stick out, I’m prepared to make it the bet of the day.
Off the mark at last, if doing a £1 level stake with these tips, im now +4 with that win. Hopefully the handicapper won’t hit ER too hard, but I think he will improve past the allotted mark nonetheless as he is a very promising chaser in the making who could aim for one or two decent races in the Spring. Hopefully more of the same tomorrow!
I like your preference for value outside bets thatm ay or may not come off, but I saw Ere’s Alfie’s poor effort at Fontwell last timed when he was supported in the market but was a mile behind – although he’s dropped a further 5lb today and facing less testing ground, he is still a maiden and a bit of a leap of faith for a bet IMO.
I’m more interested in Gunship who is on his last winning mark and goes in the conditions, looks a good bet to me.
An unplaced selection yesterday but hopefully much better today.
I’m going for
EXMOOR RANGER
in the 2.40 Newbury. This is obviously a very competitive handicap, but this horse meets some very interesting trends. Currently on a mark of 135, of which 7lb is taken off from the very promising Josh Guerriero, who has won on him before, and is 2lb lower than his last win, he has had a prep run at Wincanton on less favourable slightly faster ground than is preferred and was an encouraging run behind Ellerslie George. He has course form to his name, obviously goes in testing conditions and at 5/1 against horses either exposed, coming back from absences or are on high handicap marks. V Dartnall has gone on record saying he is one of his most promising chasers also. The 5/1 currently with b365 looks about right.
Thanks very much, unfortunately I couldn’t start off with a winner! Bit disappointed SS wasn’t in the first 3, expected a bit better to be honest but nevermind and much better racing in store tomorrow at Newbury.
Hi fellas, new to the board but have just posted a thread on daily lays and plays…..
my two pence worth on the Hennessy:
First and foremost, I would not be that concerned about Denman having top weight of 11st12, my philosophy on racing in general is that the key to finding a winner from a race is firstly try and predict how the race will unfold, pick out the front runners, midfield, held up etc, and secondly, especially in the handicap, assess the relative strength of each horse compared to its handicap rating, looking at past form and collateral form between each runner, and then consider the effect of the ground (which is critical) and then the reflected odds.
In light of this, Denman does look sort at 4/1, but looks to have a very good chance nonetheless. He looks sure to be prominently placed by Walsh, and could simply run his rivals into the ground as plenty of them look either exposed, inexperienced (esp on predicted soft going), or have been beaten by Denman before. Also in Nicholls stable tour (how reliable this is as an influence to horse selection I’m not sure) he goes on record to say that he is fit and well, despite obvious concerns about the weight and handicap mark. Like another poster said, if Denman was twice the odds, he would be the bet of the day, but at 4/1 (ruling out a profit if playing ew), the value is questionable.
However, a good eachwway shout looks to be Snowy Morning at 25/1 (b365). Assurances are stamina and soft ground form, and although at 9 y/o isnt a progressive, up and coming performer, those two traits in this kind of race makes him a contender to finish in the first 4.
