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Sorry of course its a Grade 2, the Racing Post weights threw me a little!
Only thing putting me off Petit Robin slightly is the fact he hasn’t run for 200 odd days, as a lot of the others have fitness assured with a recent run. I suppose it all depends on who’s training the horse though, and I’m sure Henderson should have him spot on if he goes for it.
The AW is usually the site of racing corruption – see Messrs. Fallon, Williams, Mongan, McKeown cases……I only bet there for fun and intrigue really, minimum possible stakes……but I am interested in the "follow the market" strategy, as it does exhibit some feasible ideas and notions, but nonetheless, the market can get it wrong a lot of the time (would be interesting to see some statistics on the percentage market "movers and drifters" win or lose?) but when there’s a strong possibility there could be some wrongdoings somewhere (see cases above, more than ample evidence of this occurring in past 5 or 6 years) via Betfair lays, trainer ~ trainer agreements, even jockey ~ jockey agreements, then you simply cannot bet with confidence that there is an equal playing field. The big races offers hope that all are trying hard and there could be some collateral form reading to base opinion and bets on.
A poor weekend on the daily bet of the day front, two disappointing bets advised means i’m back down to +4.
Today, as every Monday is, is poor racing in the main. However, I’m very interested in one flat recruit to novice hurdles, in the form of ROSE STREET, who looked every bit the jumper and stayer when campaigned by Michael Jarvis. On flat form, highlights such as finishing second to Presvis in the John Smith’s Stakes at Newbury last autumn means he is head and shoulders above the rest, as the likely favourite Amanda Carter is a multiple flat winner at a lower level. The other main contender, Dumitas, has two decent bumper wins to his name when tried by Charlie Swan in Ireland and is AP’s only ride of the day, but collaterally speaking, Rose Street boasts the best flat form coming in to the race, and receives a few pounds gender allowance as well. Jarvis always regarded him as a future hurdler and perhaps chaser, and if Miss Robson can translate his pleasing homework onto the track (she had a well backed winner at Kelso yesterday from a long lay off, Berwick Law) and seems to be constructing a nice little clutch of jumpers in her Northumberland base. At around 7/2, Rose Street could be a highlight in an otherwise dull day of racing.
Same thinking as myself but I’m afraid this slog belonged to the older stayers with Present M’Lord and Newbay Bob fighting it out.
Well perhaps the recent wise in the weights found him out, but I wasn’t overly impressed with Tom Scudamore’s riding of him, as he never got into the race, very disappointing indeed. Back on +6.
As I’m away for the weekend I will post my best bets of Sat and Sun now, provided they run.
On Saturday, I will opt for HEATHCLIFF at Chepstow, C&D form there is vital and this one won well last year and goes well on heavy going. At around 7/1 he’s a cracking bet.
ON Sunday if it runs, I give JAUNTY JOURNEY a good solid chance in the Borders National. At around 7/1 as well he’s a good eachway bet.
I’m a bit unsure where Poker de Sivola will go on the heavy ground expected at Kelso, but I think he’ll be one of the top staying chasers for some of the Nationals in a few years, as ever with Ferdy’s, they need some time to come into their own. The same applies with Jaunty Journey that he is still young but he does like heavy ground and I don’t think the trip will be a problem, and he looks, if he runs, a decent eachway bet.
Two I like tonight at Wolverhampton are:
7.50 CLEAR SAILING, 3/1 Franny Norton does well on his forays to Wolverhampton and a track which seems to be favouring front runners at the moment, seems to be rekindling his early season form and can take all the beating in a poor race.
8.20 HUCKING HEAT, Reg Hollinshead is in good form currently and HH is on a viable mark and C&D form is a plus even though getting on in age. 8/1 looks a good e/w bet.
PEUT ETRA SIVOLA is bet of the day at 5/1 – reasoning is below:
– very progressive despite an 11lb rise in the weights recently;
– goes on the ground (heavy;
– gets the trip (a recent Southern National winner, at 6 y/o is young enough to recover in time)
– the yard remain in good form;
– a lot of negatives in the race with respect to ground, trip and mark;
– main contender looks to be Notabotheronme (looks a good bet for a place);
– 5/1 looks value.Backing short odds favourites for a place……..not for me! See my bet of the day for some value bets!
Early days I know but with 3 winners from 9 so far I’m hitting my target of being +30% before the end of the month – will continue to overlook bets of less than 3/1 and try and find some value over the coming weeks to make it a bit more amenable to small stakes but decent returns.
Currently 33.3% strike rate and £7 up to a £1 level stake.
That’s more like it, a very nice performance and could make a nice novice hurdler at this trip in the years to come, very promising indeed and beat 1 or 2 good types. Now back to +7 I think.
A yard who have good recent form in both codes is the Gollings yard, and I think that TOTO SKYLLACHY could be worth a punt here on his second try on the AW. Although he seemed to prefer a softer surface on the AW, I don’t think the Wolverhampton track would hold much fear as he certainyl gets the 7f trip, and was a staying on 3rd at Kempton recently. Has since run some good races in defeat and a 1lb drop sees him on his lowest ever mark and from a good draw he could go well at around 8/1.
I’m inclined to agree with your Captain Cee Bee bet, 5/1 looks big for a previous festival winner in a race where only 2 or 3 should be in with a shout. The main danger Zaarito didn’t jump too well last time on his fences debut but equally had some cracking bumper and hurdles form, but 5/2 v 5/1 there’s no question of which I’d rather be on.
Henrietta Knight often wraps up her young hurdlers/chasers in cotton wool for a few years before they’re primed to run in the big races – this can be seen clearly with Calgary Bay; apart from winning at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day this year his form is patchy to say the least – Knight though maintains the fact that the horse is one of the best she’s trained and I wouldn’t expect him to come into his own until next year or the year after and if there was a market for Cheltenham 2011 or 2012 I’d have a gamble for perhaps the Gold Cup then. The same applies for Somersby; whatever he did as a hurdler was a bonus (and his form over those is pretty good) and I think he’ll be classy over fences this season and next.
At 6 and 5 y/o respectively they’re definitely ones for 2 or 3 years time, and will be an exciting time for Henrietta Knight to rekindle her early 2000 form!
Quantity today but short on quality IMO, although there are a few interesting novice hurdles dotted around inc. one at Leicester in the 2.35, where I will put up DR LIVINGSTONE from the Charlie Egerton yard as the best bet at around 4/1 (b365). Two of the main contenders, Champtho and Cheshire Prince both opened their hurdles accounts with a win but both came on good ground, very different to today’s soft going (although I’m a bit puzzled at how the hurdles course is soft and the chase good to firm?) which is a concern for them, and they also have to give 3lb to the selection. A lot of the 15 runners won’t be able to land a blow due to the testing ground I feel, and the interesting horse is Dr. Livingstone. A smart class 2-3 handicapper on the flat, he has performed well on a soft surface, winning at Sandown beating Times Vital at a big price and has since finished 2nd to the classy Rainbow Peak at Newbury in October on similar ground. My only slight concern is the step up in trip to 2 miles, but I trust Egerton’s judgement that he will be able to get it, with the decent prize money on offer. At 4/1 he looks a good bet.
One bet, if forgiving his dire run last time, might be TRIPITAKA. Interesting that he seems to be campaigned exclusively at Kempton, the form of his debut win is rock solid, beating Darley Sun and Dome Rocket by about 5 lengths. Something must’ve been amiss last time as he tailed off and was eased at the finish. Dropped 3lb for that, and hopefully Neil Callan can get a tune out of him as he deputises for Phillip Robinson. Satwa Gold is a worthy favourite based on his win here last time but that came in a claimer and this is much tougher; Rocky’s Pride is still relatively unexposed but you will also have to forgive his last run and tackles the AW for the first time. A good bet at around 3/1 I feel.
Back to form and now on +3pts – still amazed when scrutinising the form that the SP was as big as 9/4, took a big plunge from the advised price this morning and won by 7 or so lengths, very impressive but as stated there were some holes in the main contenders form – would like to see him in the Spring against some of the classier novice 2 and a half mile chasers.
