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Back to form and now on +3pts – still amazed when scrutinising the form that the SP was as big as 9/4, took a big plunge from the advised price this morning and won by 7 or so lengths, very impressive but as stated there were some holes in the main contenders form – would like to see him in the Spring against some of the classier novice 2 and a half mile chasers.
Quantity today but short on quality IMO, although there are a few interesting novice hurdles dotted around inc. one at Leicester in the 2.35, where I will put up DR LIVINGSTONE from the Charlie Egerton yard as the best bet at around 4/1 (b365). Two of the main contenders, Champtho and Cheshire Prince both opened their hurdles accounts with a win but both came on good ground, very different to today’s soft going (although I’m a bit puzzled at how the hurdles course is soft and the chase good to firm?) which is a concern for them, and they also have to give 3lb to the selection. A lot of the 15 runners won’t be able to land a blow due to the testing ground I feel, and the interesting horse is Dr. Livingstone. A smart class 2-3 handicapper on the flat, he has performed well on a soft surface, winning at Sandown beating Times Vital at a big price and has since finished 2nd to the classy Rainbow Peak at Newbury in October on similar ground. My only slight concern is the step up in trip to 2 miles, but I trust Egerton’s judgement that he will be able to get it, with the decent prize money on offer. At 4/1 he looks a good bet.
That’s more like it, a very nice performance and could make a nice novice hurdler at this trip in the years to come, very promising indeed and beat 1 or 2 good types. Now back to +7 I think.
Early days I know but with 3 winners from 9 so far I’m hitting my target of being +30% before the end of the month – will continue to overlook bets of less than 3/1 and try and find some value over the coming weeks to make it a bit more amenable to small stakes but decent returns.
Currently 33.3% strike rate and £7 up to a £1 level stake.
PEUT ETRA SIVOLA is bet of the day at 5/1 – reasoning is below:
– very progressive despite an 11lb rise in the weights recently;
– goes on the ground (heavy;
– gets the trip (a recent Southern National winner, at 6 y/o is young enough to recover in time)
– the yard remain in good form;
– a lot of negatives in the race with respect to ground, trip and mark;
– main contender looks to be Notabotheronme (looks a good bet for a place);
– 5/1 looks value.Well perhaps the recent wise in the weights found him out, but I wasn’t overly impressed with Tom Scudamore’s riding of him, as he never got into the race, very disappointing indeed. Back on +6.
As I’m away for the weekend I will post my best bets of Sat and Sun now, provided they run.
On Saturday, I will opt for HEATHCLIFF at Chepstow, C&D form there is vital and this one won well last year and goes well on heavy going. At around 7/1 he’s a cracking bet.
ON Sunday if it runs, I give JAUNTY JOURNEY a good solid chance in the Borders National. At around 7/1 as well he’s a good eachway bet.
A poor weekend on the daily bet of the day front, two disappointing bets advised means i’m back down to +4.
Today, as every Monday is, is poor racing in the main. However, I’m very interested in one flat recruit to novice hurdles, in the form of ROSE STREET, who looked every bit the jumper and stayer when campaigned by Michael Jarvis. On flat form, highlights such as finishing second to Presvis in the John Smith’s Stakes at Newbury last autumn means he is head and shoulders above the rest, as the likely favourite Amanda Carter is a multiple flat winner at a lower level. The other main contender, Dumitas, has two decent bumper wins to his name when tried by Charlie Swan in Ireland and is AP’s only ride of the day, but collaterally speaking, Rose Street boasts the best flat form coming in to the race, and receives a few pounds gender allowance as well. Jarvis always regarded him as a future hurdler and perhaps chaser, and if Miss Robson can translate his pleasing homework onto the track (she had a well backed winner at Kelso yesterday from a long lay off, Berwick Law) and seems to be constructing a nice little clutch of jumpers in her Northumberland base. At around 7/2, Rose Street could be a highlight in an otherwise dull day of racing.
A close 2nd but I’m not in it for eachway……price contracted to 2/1 JF and it was a good run nevertheless. Back down to +3 now.
Rose Street will win a hurdle. She looked a nice sort in the paddock, and jumped nicely but was just outrun by a another promising performer in Amanda Carter, and I think both will move forward from this.
Yes obviously inexperienced and a pain to train, butdefinitely one to watch, but probably on the Northern circuit in a relatively moderate maiden hurdle. He was very decent on the flat however, but sometimes flat form translated to hurdling doesn’t always work.
My play comes in the 3.00 at Southwell, and out of the two fancies that I have, as noted on the AW thread, Reg Hollinshead runners are ones to watch at the minute and his sole flagship TRI CHARA can triumph today at around 4/1. The other contender that I noted for ew purposes is Golden Dixie, who is on its lowest ever rating on 55, and ran respectably last time over C&D. 14/1 is appealing.
As far as Tri Chara is concerned, Graham Gibbons might’ve made an error in judgement when favourite last time as he seemed to kick for home a bit too soon and got caught late. Dropped a further 1lb for that, and has promosing apprentice David Kenny on board today taking a further 7lb off and looks well treated. Cool Sands is also a danger on a cascading mark, but at these weights and considering Hollinshead’s blistering form, Tri Chara gets the vote.
+2 now – won’t be posting tomorrow so I will put my fancy up now – Hexham, RIGUEZ DANCER, who unfortunately fell last time but will have hopefully brushed up on his jumping at home for this – Murphy maintains the fact the horse could be a decent novice chaser this season and next but will need to win tomorrow to back that up. Around 3/1 I would expect, he’ll be my nap of the day.
+1 now after a stinking run of losses –
Today i’m plumping for FREDDIE THE THIRD in the 2.10 Ludlow. Interesting off a bantomweight of 10 stone in an albeit quite competitive handicap, he runs off a mark of 101, his lowest yet, after some average runs in slightly more difficult races than this. Obviously goes on the ground and although without a win for 2 years, he didn’t do that badly in the Tolworth Hurdle at the beginning of last year and has needed the 3 or 4 runs he has had this campaign to get him straight. This flatter track might suit and take the stress off the jumping department and at a price of 12/1 looks a good value bet.
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