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Got to go with Twist Magic here, so many positives, especially with Ruby on board and his love of Sandown. Big negative with Big Zeb is his jumping, so cant have him at a short price. Paddy could be a good e/w bet though.
GL.
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Imo Twist Magic is a short runner, and I wouldn’t have him on my mind if the forecast rain arrives.
Well Chief neither: his latest comeback wasn’t nearly as good as his previous 2, and he hasn’t strung 2 decent runs close together since his leg injury over 4 years ago.
At the moment I’d have it between Barker and Forpadydeplasterer, but that’s assuming attritional ground, and that probably won’t be clear until the day of the race – according to the forecast.- Total Posts 17716
Fist, Barker is every inch a two-miler. Stick yer nose in a form-book, ye erse.
Sure he’s won over 2 miles against Forpaddydeplasterer but he simply outstayed a horse who had gone over the top. No way would he stand a chance in this class and I don’t think Mullins will even run him. Anyway a wee birdie tells me he may be going for the Ryanair and not the QMCC as the press and bookies would lead you to believe.
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Crack Away Jack now runs in the Henry VIII Novices Chase.
With almost every horse entered having won his last race of has the look of being the first really competitive novice this season. If Crack Away Jack wins and wins well he’ll be clear fav for the Arkle…….so I’d get on now if you fancy him.
With him gone I’m even more confident Well Chief will place. I did say when he took on Master Minded it was his Cheltenham so this could be his Aintree
Still a hard race to be confident of picking the winner but I’m going to back Well Chief for as much as I can to be placed and put any likely winnings on him to win. That way hopefully the worst thing that can happen is I come out all square.
My mind tells me Big Zeb will piss up but my heart tells me if Well Chief won and I hadn’t backed him I’d curse myself. So for once mind over matter loses out.
G/l to all I think we’ll need it with this one.
Crack Away Jack now runs in the Henry VIII Novices Chase.
With almost every horse entered having won his last race of has the look of being the first really competitive novice this season. If Crack Away Jack wins and wins well he’ll be clear fav for the Arkle…….so I’d get on now if you fancy him.
And the same applys to Somersby!!
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I would agree Gord. Out of all the up and coming young chaser he’s the one that stands out as the one I think will still be around when many of them have shot their bolt.
He may or may not win the Arkle but for me he looks the strong robust type who will stand plenty racing and outlast many of these.
I could see him winning something like the Paddy Power or the Ryanair in the future and like him a lot.
Henrietta Knight often wraps up her young hurdlers/chasers in cotton wool for a few years before they’re primed to run in the big races – this can be seen clearly with Calgary Bay; apart from winning at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day this year his form is patchy to say the least – Knight though maintains the fact that the horse is one of the best she’s trained and I wouldn’t expect him to come into his own until next year or the year after and if there was a market for Cheltenham 2011 or 2012 I’d have a gamble for perhaps the Gold Cup then. The same applies for Somersby; whatever he did as a hurdler was a bonus (and his form over those is pretty good) and I think he’ll be classy over fences this season and next.
At 6 and 5 y/o respectively they’re definitely ones for 2 or 3 years time, and will be an exciting time for Henrietta Knight to rekindle her early 2000 form!
Only the five decs:
Big Zeb
Twist Magic
Mahogany Blaze
Forpadydeplasterer
Well Chief
Very disappointing field isn’t it. You’d think with Master Minded out that more trainers would be having a crack at one of the most prestigious races in the calendar. Apart from Forpadydeplasterer, where are all the decent novices from last year? – Kalahari King, Planet Of Sound, Follow The Plan etc.
If Big Zeb puts in a clear round I’d expect him to win but that is a big if. Barry seems to get on very well with him though.
Presumably McCoy will make the running on Forpadydeplasterer. I wouldn’t be too worried about the ground for him, the ground won’t be any worse than his races against Cooldine, Trafford Lad and Golden Silver last year. If he gets into a good rhythm up front he’ll be hard to pass up the straight.
Presumably McCoy will make the running on Forpadydeplasterer. I wouldn’t be too worried about the ground for him,
Imperial,you being Forpadys 2nd biggest fan should know by now that he hates to get his feet wet! He"s a 10lb better horse on Good ground!He doesn"t finish his races the same when there is cut in the ground!
Wouldn’t put me off him here TAPK. Soft ground in England is a world away from what he’ll have encoutered over here. It was desperate ground for the Irish Arkle last year and he got through it ok.
There’s no pace in this race on Saturday and I can see McCoy letting him bowl along up front. Sandown suits front-runners and if he nicked a few lengths jumping that Pond fence I think the rest of the field could have a job on trying to peg him back. He is too big a price IMO even allowing for soft ground. Every other horse in the field would prefer better ground anyway so they should all be inconvenienced to an extent.
There s a definite lack of pace angles in saturdays race and agree completely that forpady is completely wrong price.MoCoy will most likely be able to dictate his own pace and if for pady won’t like the ground you can bet it will inconvenience twist magic even more. I was delighted that well chief won at aintree but looking at the form objectively he beat an injured master minded and mahogany blaze by very little. At current prices Mahogany Blaze is 8 or 9 times the price of Mahogany Blaze for a 1 1/4l beating at level weights. It’s 155-160 form at best and in my book Well Chief should be a longer price than forpady who badly needed his comeback run behind Herecomesthe truth, but he did jump and travel very well that day. I still think Big Zeb is the most obvious winner but he still has questions to answer on the jumping front, and he’ll never carry my money at such a short price
My book for the race would be
Big Zeb 11/8
FPTP 7/2
Twist Magic 7/2
Well Chief 11/2
Maghogany Blaze 16/1So at current best prices available I think FPTP at 7/1 and Mahogany at 33/1 (both available at the magic sign)are the value in the race.
Only the five decs:
Big Zeb
Twist Magic
Mahogany Blaze
Forpadydeplasterer
Well ChiefWhy the sad face, Grass?
This is a field short on quantity, but not in quality.
They have won ten Grade Ones between them, with only Mahogany Blaze failing to win at the highest level.
We have two Arkle winners in the field – Well Chief (2004) and Forpadydeplasterer (2009).
Two Celebration Chase winners – Well Chief (2005) and Twist Magic (2009). The same duo also landed the Maghull Novices’ Chase in 2004 and 2007, respectively.
Well Chief also has a Victor Chandler Chase (incredible weight-carrying performance) and Game Spirit to his name, while Twist Magic has a Tingle Creek and Kerrygold Champion Chase to his.
Big Zeb would have arguably won the Kerrygold last April but for belting the last and many had considered him the chief threat to Master Minded’s dominance before the event.
Jumping is still an issue with him, I believe, and there will be nowhere to hide around Sandown. He’s worth opposinng, especially against two high quality individuals like Well Chief and Twist Magic, both of whom have an impressive record around the track.
Well Chief has arguably run two of his best races around Sandown. The unforgettable Tingle Creek of 2004 behind Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop stands out, as does beating the latter in the Celebration Chase.
Twist Magic’s finest moments have been at Sandown. He won this race two years ago and smashed Kalahari King here at the end of last season.
I never rated last seasons two mile novice chasers and on a line through Kalahari King (admittedly he jumped terribly) you would give Twist Magic the beating of Forpadydeplasterer.
Mahogany Blaze was well beaten by Twist Magic in the Celebration Chase last year and behind Well Chief at Cheltenham.
The way this race promises to be run, it will suit Twist Magic and Well Chief. I can see McCoy allowing Forpady to bowl along, but Well Chief won’t be too far away. His jumping will be a huge weapon around here against the likes of Big Zeb and the less experienced ForPady.
I think Twist Magic can edge out Well Chief in this, with the pair pulling clear of Big Zeb, who will find things easier with the forecast slow pace.
Why the sad face, Grass?
I don’t think this is a particularly compelling field to be honest, Bos…..but mainly I’m sad because I had a nice position around Fix The Rib earlier in the week, only to see him fail to be dec’d.
Big Zeb looks the winner to me but agree about price concern.
Twist Magic – in and out, very tricky to assess.
Mahogany Blaze – not up to this
Well Chief – tempting to row in with but I think MM was very much under par last time. Years are bound to have caught up with him and it’s very unlikley he’s teh horse he was.
FPTP – he still has it to prove at this level for me. Plenty promise but this is another step. That said 7/1 looks big.
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