Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Tingle Creek 2009
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moehat.
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- December 5, 2009 at 12:34 #262240
The interesting (and frustrating) aspect of this race is that all runners have questions marks surrounding them (with regards to todays race).
Me, I’m a FORPADYTHEPLASTERER man at the prices. Using the angle I analyse races with, he looks best suited to the race.
Pace, however, can ruin the best of plans and this could well be a trappy race.
Looking forward to a tactical battle whoever decides to take up the running…..
December 5, 2009 at 12:38 #262242I’d be surprised if McCoy doesn’t have Forpadydeplasterer handy. Barry had no problems letting him stride on and jump his way to the front at Cheltenham.
December 5, 2009 at 12:47 #262244I thought it was interesting that David Pipe said they think Well Chief is better left-handed nowadays. That combined with the fear that he may have lost a little boot rising 11 have me against him here. Big Zeb is becoming overpriced at over 2/1.
I don’t know what evidence David Pipe has of favouring left-handed courses. May be he’s going that way at home? So far have not seen anything on the racecourse. I don’t expect Well Chief to run anywhere near his best, but has over a stone in hand on that Tingle third. Around 100/30 just looks too big.
I have ignored Master Minded in my working out, with both Well Chief and Big Zeb.
Value Is EverythingDecember 5, 2009 at 12:58 #262246I agree Big Zeb is Great Value! HAVING SOME OF THAT
I’ve decided he wont fall 
1. Big Zeb
2. Well ChiefWouldn’t be a bad bet for the forecast.
Ginge where on earth do you get the idea MB is a value bet?
15 lengths to make up on Well Chief QMCC, 10 lengths on Twist Magic TC, never won on soft. You can bet your backside he shouldn’t be good enough even if he gets what you call a soft lead…..more chance of number 7 coming up on a dice
You’ve got it wrong again Fist.
I don’t make Mahogany Blaze value at all. I want at least 33/1 if not 40/1 to back it. Just saying the only way I can see him winning is if left alone up front.We agree Fist, Big Zeb and Well Chief are the best bets. Although I have them the other way around.
Value Is EverythingDecember 5, 2009 at 13:07 #262247Would love to see Well Chief win this one but my money is on the favourite, Big Zeb. BZ will be too good for this lot…. mind you, I said the same thing last week about Binocular in the Fighting Fifth
December 5, 2009 at 14:31 #262264Big Zeb just ran an absolute stinker
December 5, 2009 at 14:37 #262266Big dud !

Just as Twist Magic impressed round his favourite track, so the favourite was equally disappointing.
Note to self : major re-think on QMCC required.

Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
December 5, 2009 at 14:39 #262267FORPADYTHEPLASTERER the horse to take out of the race for me.
TWIST MAGIC loves Sandown so his win is not much of a surprise but FORPADY’ never looked happy on the ground so to be as close as he was at the 2nd last shows he has trained on. Should be more to come on better ground.
If the QMCC was run at SANDOWN, TWISTY would be unstoppable! Loves the place.
December 5, 2009 at 14:41 #262268
AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
I hope you got my message this morning, Fist.
A wonderful performance from Twist Magic and a sign, perhaps, that he’s finally getting himself together. If he can maintain the consistency he’s shown in two outings this season, he’s a player in March.
December 5, 2009 at 14:42 #262269Would love to see Well Chief win this one but my money is on the favourite, Big Zeb. BZ will be too good for this lot…. mind you, I said the same thing last week about Binocular in the Fighting Fifth

Another masterclass in picking winners from myself!

Well done to those who picked Twist Magic.
December 5, 2009 at 14:43 #262270That was nice.

Master Minded’s Queen Mother romp aside, that was as good a two mile performance as I’ve seen in a long time.
Big Zeb was never travelling and Well Chief was too far back to make an impact at this stage of his career.
He retains a fair amount of his old ability, but I still find it incredible that some think he’s as good as he was.
Forpady ran a cracker, but one gets the impression that wherever he goes he will, more often than not, find one too good.
December 5, 2009 at 14:53 #262271FORPADYTHEPLASTERER the horse to take out of the race for me.
I think his run would justify Tom Cooper giving him a crack at the Champion Chase. Today was his first run out of novice company given that the Down Royal race was confined to second season chasers. He’ll improve for the experience and for better ground.
Like the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase is a bit of a puzzle at the moment.
December 5, 2009 at 15:03 #262276I have followed Twist magic as long as i have followed Denman and yet i misjudged him big time last Saturday!It all depends which Twisty turns up,but his record in this race is good enough to win!Forpadydeplasterer is yet again one of my Cheltenham Bankers,he is still the dark horse in this race but he must have good ground,he is more than capable of winning this,given his conditions!I have had to back both at 9/2 and 9/1 respectively!Big Zeb will struggle round Sandown and at 6/4, TAPK will be laying him!
There are times when a King has to be modest!!
December 5, 2009 at 15:56 #262281
AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
Wouldn’t be backing Twist Magic for anything on the strength of that run.
Given a soft lead in a slowly run race (almost 2 seconds slower than earlier novice chase), his suspect stamina was never likely to be tested, and he’ll be lucky to find another race as soft all season.
Well Chief never jumped a fence, – maybe it was the soft ground (though times suggest it was on the good side of soft), or maybe it was his dodgy leg, but certainly no sign of his usual slick and accurate jumping.
Given that the ground wasn’t all that bad (it certainly didn’t look it), I’m amazed that AP didn’t make it more of a test, for it looked for all the world as if FPDP was ridden with another day in mind.
Come back Masterminded; all is forgiven.
December 5, 2009 at 17:00 #262292Wouldn’t be backing Twist Magic for anything on the strength of that run.
Given a soft lead in a slowly run race (almost 2 seconds slower than earlier novice chase), his suspect stamina was never likely to be tested, and he’ll be lucky to find another race as soft all season.
Well Chief never jumped a fence, – maybe it was the soft ground (though times suggest it was on the good side of soft), or maybe it was his dodgy leg, but certainly no sign of his usual slick and accurate jumping.
Given that the ground wasn’t all that bad (it certainly didn’t look it), I’m amazed that AP didn’t make it more of a test, for it looked for all the world as if FPDP was ridden with another day in mind.
Come back Masterminded; all is forgiven.
Agree, I doubt whether Twist Magic can go on from this. Certainly goes well at Sandown but the lead helped. Rarely puts in a good run at Cheltenham. To be fair has done nothing wrong this season.
May be Well Chief does need a longer time between races. Carv’s point about him needing a left handed course these days could also be right; lugged left around some bends. Noticed he jumped reasonably until a mistake around halfway (think it was just before the railways). After that there were a fair few errors, hope the little horse is o.k.
There was no way AP was ever going to lead or dispute the running. Forpaddy has idled badly when leading and needs putting his head in front quite late.
Big Zeb effort very disappointing, may be he does not travel (to Britain) well. Lack-lustre and beaten before any significant mistakes.
Wonder how many of these ran to form. Two at most?
Value Is EverythingDecember 5, 2009 at 17:09 #262296[quote="reet hard" I’m amazed that AP didn’t make it more of a test, for it looked for all the world as if FPDP was ridden with another day in mind.
Very observant of you,a bit like when he raced on Soft ground last year you mean!Different horse on Good ground,his day will come at Cheltenham!Trust me i"m a King!
December 5, 2009 at 17:18 #262300There was no way AP was ever going to lead or dispute the running. Forpaddy has idled badly when leading and needs putting his head in front quite late.
He was in front plenty soon enough in the Arkle
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