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All Weather Lays and Plays

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  • #2378
    slipperytoadslipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    In an attempt to generate some interest in All-Weather racing amongst fellow forum members, with the kind assistance of Tooting, we’ll be attacking races graded 3 and above at Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Kempton and Southwell.

    I’ll use this thread to post our collective selections. All comments or questions welcome :cool:

    Starters for today are (11th Nov)

    Lingfield 3:20 – Saviours Spirit<br>Kempton 6:20 – Mudawin

    #67728
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Sound like a good idea. Can I post Little Edward in advance of his next run?:biggrin:

    Seriously, I’ll try to rememeber to poat them up – any new threads that generate more interest in the lays and plays has got to be good

    #67729
    slipperytoadslipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    No problem, the more the merrier.. :biggrin:

    BTW: for what reason are you putting up Little Edward?

    #67730
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    I should say slipperytoad was very keen on Odiham, until I talked him out of it!

    <br>

    #67731
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    I see there are two higher-grade staying events at Southwell tomorrow (one bizarrely uprated from Class 5/6 in previous years).

    These were always my favourite events when I first kept speed figures and the fact that Southwell has kept a genuine (and testing) dirt surface continues to offer an edge to the discerning. Relatively few horses genuinely act on the deep fibresand.

    3:30 <br>- All but one runners can be given some kind of chance: Credit was sold pretty cheaply and has shown nothing for some time.<br>- Heathyards Pride is proven on this surface and at this trip, which none of the others can claim<br>- Bobby Charles can go well after a break and probably acts on the surface. He might just about get the trip but the 12f event he won was weak, and he seems best at 10f. Yard had a winner this week.<br>- Baan can neither be fancied, nor ruled out, being out of form and untested on the going but potentially well-handicapped and from a strong stable.<br>- St Savarin possibly doesn’t act on this surface well, but there is limited evidence. Trip is fine and recent form is ok.<br>- Lake Poet stays the trip and ran well last time out. The stable have won the (kind of) equivalent race recently. Fibresand is an unknown.

    For me: An interesting race where the three that make (marginally) most appeal are Heathyards Pride, Bobby Charles and Lake Poet. As neither Baan nor St Savarin can be discounted, this looks a no-play event. If pushed for a single selection, Heathyards Pride would be the reluctant choice.

    <br>3:00<br>- Most Definitely has had two dirt runs and run really badly both times, including round here. He doesn’t appear to act off turf and makes no appeal.<br>- At The Money has had a very good year, with 2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds from 6 starts. Having had a break before two October runs, he remains fresher than most. Proven on this surface, he gets lots of weight, stays very well and can race prominently, which may be important in such a small field. Basically, lots of ticks. A slight question mark could be posed about a lack of small-field form, but this could be expected to have more effect on a hold-up horse.<br>- Velvet Heights has to be given a chance, boasting a very good polytrack record but not having tried this course. John Dunlop rarely has runners here (this will be his second in 5 years) so this proven stayer deserves close attention. Of concern are a poor record in very small fields and twice as many second places as wins. Nibble, nibble…<br>- Country Pursuit is another horse with a very good dirt record but with no fibresand runs in his portfolio to help us. A further worry is a stamina doubt at this trip, with the horse getting 12f-13f ok on the poly at Lingfield (which means very little) but fading the twice he has encountered a mile and a half and softish ground.

    For me: At The Money is a solid selection here, and the forecast of At The Money to beat Velvet Heights also looks playable. I don’t expect Most Definitely to be able to get competitive. I see At The Money leading the other two main players early and winding up the pace from a mile out. As they emerge from the final bend, Country Pursuit will move up menacingly past Velvet Heights but then flatten out and be repassed for second (possible in-running lay?). It is possible that neither of the chasers will get close enough to challenge At The Money – if they do, the Eustace horse has shown the ability and willingness to battle it out.

    This is a starting point, and I’m very willing to change my opinion, or the direction of my fiver. Two funny little races with unexpectedly good prize money…<br>

    #67732
    slipperytoadslipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    SOUTHWELL 3:00

    With only 4 runners this is a no play race for me but if pushed Velvet Heights ran well in a fast time last time out and would be my selection.

    SOUTHWELL 3:30

    A tantalising handicap for a Monday. With some runners having more questions than answers lets use a process of elimination

    St Savarin – Not likely. 3 for 22 beyond 7 furlongs the RP spotlight writers have made the mistake of thinking that polytrack and fibresand form are one and the same. 8-113 all-weather sire progeny statistics speak otherwise.

    Bann– Not likely. Recently gelded, using “Mel Maximsâ€ÂÂ

    #67733
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Crikey – good stuff you two – you don’t need me meddling in something I know little about!

    <br>After doing the form, and before compiling a tissue, I tend to place the race under review into one of four categories:  

    1)  Yep, I know the horses, I have a feel for the race, will be confident in my tissue, and if there’s any juice will get my betting boots on.

    2)  Looks a tricky race, but I’ve seen at least something to give me hope – possibly a way into the race nearer the off for a reduced stakes approach.

    3)  Pretty hopeless. I’d need some convincing before parting with cash, but will do the tissue anyway, in case.

    4) Do not compile a tissue, do not pass go.

    <br>I can safely say these two races would normally have been (4s), but for the purposes of this experiment I made them (3s)!

    <br>3:00<br>I looked at this and my immediate thought was what the jockeys would be cooking up between them.  As you can see I’ll take some convincing about this lark, even these supposedly higher grade races.

    My tissue: <br>(Compiled to 100%, with no intention to lay. Unlisted horses I wouldn’t back at any price. Any listed horse would be a potential bet based on price).

    At The Money  6/4<br>Country Pursuit  5/2<br>Velvet Heights  5/2

    I like NV’s reading of this race. Wouldn’t make me have a bet though.

    <br>3:30<br>Lake Poet 9/4<br>St Savarin  3/1<br>Baan 11/2<br>Bobby Charles 11/2

    <br>Class 2 in name only. What Mark Cramer would call a "lesser of evils" race, and I avoid those like the plague. To add to the woes you’ve got a Fahey/Hanagan favourite, and a Mark Johnston ‘character’.  

    My prices don’t include your keen analysis of the track characteristics which seem to play against my faves. My tissue is very close to the bookies, so if they are similarly blind-sighted that could well be where the edge is.

    I’m interested you both are keen on Heathyard’s Pride. I  discounted him on grounds of class. This is one of the key problems I have with lower grade racing. The higher the grade the clearer the class barriers seem to be. Here you’re suggesting a class 4 horse on all known form can win a class 2 race (albeit a dodgy class 3 in reality).

    Not for me, but I will watch this one as a student on what looks a steep aw learning curve!

    <br>Good idea this.

    <br>

    #67734
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    If only it was on Sandbox level.

    4:00S – 2pts Peruvian Prince @ 11/4 (Skybet) – looks to have a very good chance based on its last few runs.

    1:50 Lingfield – 3pts Cesc @ 2/1 (generally) – never keen on backing unlucky horses but looks to have a lot going for it. Just please don’t get caught in traffic Ahern.

    #67735
    slipperytoadslipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    After discussion, Tooting and I have decided to share our collective inputs openly instead of private emails. As you can see above our thoughts on the 3:00 and 3:30 Southwell differ slightly but for me we both agree on one point … that both races are no play and watching brief advised. :o

    It’s a long season and there will be better and more profitable punting opportunities on the sand. In addition we’ll both benefit from watching the outcome and sharpening our A/W skills via post race review.

    Good thread.. Hope the inputs from other forum members continue..

    #67736
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    This thread and the blogs make interesting reading for a person such as myself who has only recently decided to try and make a living from betting.

    Good luck with your attempt at making it pay from the selected AW races. I personally find it difficult to pick winners at this time of year ( not that any time is easy of course ) and I often do better on the AW in the Jan/Feb period when there is more AW form to look at.

    I will follow this thread in the next few months and try not to make too many useless comments;)  

    <br>

    #67737
    slipperytoadslipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    missed opportunity in the 3:00 at Southwell.. oh well such is life.. :biggrin:

    In the 3:30 I need to hold my hands up to a handicapping process error on my part.

    missed/overlooked the 2nd place of St Savarin at Southwell(6/9/06 Betfair Com Handicap Stakes) so obviously his sire A/W stats should have been thrown out of the window :angry:

    (Edited by slipperytoad at 5:52 pm on Nov. 13, 2006)

    #67738
    Sailing Shoes
    Member
    • Total Posts 368

    Slipperytoad, Tooting….

    I don’t mind a dabble on the A/W and make a decent enough return. I only really bet on Sprints, but can be persuaded to go upto 7 furlongs if pushed ;)

    I will contribute to this thread if you both don’t mind.

    One early piece of advice would be to avoid Kempton like the plague. :biggrin:

    #67739
    non vintagenon vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    St Savarin’s Southwell 2nd was on turf, so don’t be too hard on yourself slippery!

    Heathyards Pride ran pretty well, but I didn’t play it anyway, whilst At The Money ran like a drain washing my money away with ruthless efficiency.

    Country Pursuit clearly doesn’t stay, so at least I got that right, but that’s pretty cold, hard comfort!!!

    :biggrin:

    #67741
    slipperytoadslipperytoad
    Member
    • Total Posts 419

    Oh poo.. another processing error again on my part NV.. :angry:

    Sailing Shoes – Welcome aboard! :cool:

    For anyone else wishing to join in the fun the rules are simple..

    Tooting and I are focusing our attention on the A/W races graded 3 and above but all are welcome to post their thoughts on any A/W race of the day. The aim here is to generate interest in this format of racing and by sharing our thoughts (or selections) it should be mutually beneficial to all (and profitable too I hope :biggrin: )

    (Edited by slipperytoad at 9:58 am on Nov. 14, 2006)

    #67742
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Sailing Shoes – why do you say it’s best to avoid Kempton?….or do you mean in sprint races only ( which I am useless at anyway )

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