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I sometimes have a quick look at the trends before a big race and the Welsh National throws up a few interesting ones, namely that there have been no winners older than 8 in the last 10 years, with all of the previous 5 winners being aged 8. Low weights tend to do well too, with Synchronised the only winner more than 11st5 since Master Oats in 1994. This bodes well for my new fancy Tour Des Champs…
Tour Des Champs is interesting-ran in some good races as a 6 year old last season without winning but if he has matured over the summer and improves his jumping he could have a say off a good mark
Master Neo, who I think is a really good horse in the making.
Agree with that Rich, can see him running a big race at price, and still available for a few quid @ 100’s for Chepstow. I think that would be right up his street as well.
Good luck with him tomorrow.
He has one of those profiles of going from rags to riches in the space of a few months, similar to Hunt Ball a few years ago. A game front runner and decent jumper, he is the one for me and although he may not win, the odds represent enough value to warrant a decent each way bet.
Yes Welsh National may be next, or the big one in April.
Low weights tend to do well although expect ground to ride good to soft so unlikely to be a real slog. Will side with Benbens as its Twistons only runner, Mr Moonshine although not sure about Jockey booking and my main hope Master Neo, who I think is a really good horse in the making.
There’s only been two 7 yo winners since 1992, not sure of sample size but you need a more experienced animal I feel. Mr Moonshine ricks the boxes for me at the moment.
One of my favourite races of the calendar won twice by my favourite horse of all time, Hello Bud.
I tend to go with front or prominent runners so that they stay out of trouble. If he gets in, Master Neo would be of interest after a very promising run at Cheltenham last time. Horse has improved a bundle this season and could take high rank in some of the better staying chases this year and next. I know his trainer holds him in high regard and looks a pretty good jumper. Definitely one to follow in my view.
Mr Moonshine is another I like who stays all day and also jumps well, has the form to play a part if cards drop right for him.
Will monitor the weather until I have a bet and also wait for the intended runners but looks another race to savour with several locking horns again.
Excellent run from Monbeg Dude yesterday which will set him up nicely for this. I wouldn’t mind if Maloney keeps the ride, but Paul Carberry is a master and would only add to his chances.
Monbeg Dude if he runs, or Hawkes Point.
I know Bowen likes Edmund Kean but might be one for another day.
Dont really have time to trawl through the 5 yo runners but just found it interesting there has never been a winner – at a guess I’d say there’ve only been a handful but definitely think you require a more experienced horse for this toughest of tests.
There’s never been a 5 year old winner of this so while Djakadam looks a smart chaser in the making, he lacks the experience needed for such a test. There have been a few 6 yo winners as was the case last year but generally you require a seasoned campaigner. With the Nicholls yard coming to hand nicely my vote is for Rocky Creek, who although was ultimately outstayed last year I think he has the attributes to come out on top this time.
I know NTD has always liked Sybarite and is finally repaying some of that faith after a very tumultuous career so far. I don’t think Haydock paid to his strengths yesterday but proved he is a stayer in the making. I believe the horse belongs over fences and could see him as a Welsh National type, maybe in a few years. He likes soft ground but just a case if he can do it in such a tough race. TD has some excellent stayers in his yard with Splash of Ginge looking a potential National horse too.
I’m not sure Ginge, but sounds like Wetherby aren’t the only ones with distance issues!
Great assessment, Astracad is frustrating but there’s ability there so has to be a decent each way punt off a low weight.
Johns Spirit for me though, he won this last year and looks to have improved since then so with course and distance form there’s not much to dislike.
Seems strange to rename it though, could surely just stick GB or UK in brackets afterwards? I always back Varian’s so will chuck a few quid on her.
Is it just me or has Ambivalent been renamed to My Ambivalent? Bit odd…
I think Admire Rakti will take the beating, but will have Mutual Regard each way.
