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Well Protectionist looks like the winner to me drawn nicely 11 of 24 and i am tipping that the ‘butcher of Flemington’ Ryan Moore will get it right this time and win the cup.Moore has had 2 rides in the cup and he certainly wouldn’t want to view the races again…Like Frankie, rode well over there but got lost here. Roger Varian must have plenty of Group 1 wins as he threw away one today putting Andrea Atzeni on Faaraaj ,was a certainty beaten, a massive run in the million $ Mckinnon stks.The horse drew badly in 15 but Atzeni had a brain eexplosion sitting 3 deep outside the leaders on the pace the whole trip of 2000 mtrs. IF you are caught 3 deep you try and cuddle them off the pace a first year apprentice would do what Atzeni did today.He was the talk of the town and not in a good way….I think old Red Cadeaux could be the blow out horse at 20-1 he is an old marvel and loves Flemington.Hardest to beat Admire Rakti as the Japanese have much superior stayers to the rest of the world but 58.5 kg hasn’t been carried to win a Cup for 39 years.The Sydney mare Lucia Valentina ran a bottler in the Caufield Cup and a big danger.Finally i hope Ryan Moore can show his class and win it, he is a world class rider but has 2 shockers out of 2 in the cup, a 10 to 12 draw is about perfect in the Cup and Protectionist has drawn 11, so Moore gets his chance to win it.
agree on Red Cadeaux to place at decent price.
to win though (even with the weight) i reckon Zac Purton (Admire Rakti) to edge out Moore.
(we probably ought to be in Big Races – Discussion with this thread tho).
Going to back whichever horse is drawn 5. Simples
Having now looked at the racecard it’s probably a bit more complicated than that…..Think I’ll back both Johnny Murtagh horses and my old friend Cavalryman.form link upper left of card here:
HKJC form guide now out for its six-race simulcast, starting 02:30 UK time Tuesday.
for pdf, right-click Download Race Form (All Races) above silks:
Sea Moon scratched from the Cup, he is one horse who has gone backwards fast since coming over here.On form he probably should never have accepted but Lloyd Williams is pretty arrogant, he accepted with Efficient after he won the Derby a few years ago and scratched soon after. It just costs another horse getting the run in the Cup. Signoff trained here by Darren Weir is the dramatic shortener in from 16’s to 6-1 after a dominant win in the Lexus on Saturday.Has only 51kg and Moreira to ride, has a winning weight if good enough.
I can’t see beyond Mutual Regard, especially as Murtagh has had the sense to use an Australian jockey. Also fancy Lidari and can’t ignore Cavalryman who, apart from Red Cadeaux really deserves a race like this one. I really look forward to this race and I’ve got my pooter tuned in to Radio Sport already [had a practice run last night].Very scared of Lucia Valentina.[Ladbrokes are doing first 5]
For me Red Cadeaux has an awful lot on his plate. Ed Dunlop said after the Geoffrey Freer that he had been thinking about calling time on the horse’s career, as he felt that the horse might have lost it.
In finishing fourth that day Red Cadeaux gave his trainer encouragement that it was worth a final go at the Melbourne Cup. I had my reservations at the time because the favourite Pether’s Moon ran a shocker that day and subsequently the horse who finished immediately ahead of Red Cadeaux that day, Seal Of Approval, went on to run disappointingly when beaten favourite on her next two starts.
Red Cadeaux himself was stone last beaten 24 lengths next time out at Kempton and the stable has had a very modest year with an 8% strike rate. Last month only yielded 3 winners and a strike rate of 6%
It would be a fairytale end to a career if he pulls it off but at 14/1 in places I think that’s appalling value.
I’ve stuck a token few quid on
Fawkner
at 12/1 on the back of a 2nd place in the Cox Plate and a decent sixth in last year’s renewal. There is a concern that his stamina will hold out but otherwise I feel sure he’ll be competitive.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Earlier today there was a lot of money going on Fawkner. He’s a bit old though [says I having backed Cavalryman].
I can’t see beyond Mutual Regard, especially as Murtagh has had the sense to use an Australian jockey. Also fancy Lidari and can’t ignore Cavalryman who, apart from Red Cadeaux really deserves a race like this one. I really look forward to this race and I’ve got my pooter tuned in to Radio Sport already [had a practice run last night].Very scared of Lucia Valentina.[Ladbrokes are doing first 5]
Am i the only one who cant figure out why Mutual Regard is 13/1 while Royal Diamond can be backed at 130. I can see value in only one side there.
SHL
OPINION at 66/1 for me been running over 1m2 trips can stay on at 2m and make it 2years on a trot that a ex Michael Stoute wins.
I did my little chart today and Mutual Regard came top with 4,Lidari had 4’ish
and Opinion came 3rd with 3. Trouble is I can’t ignore my old friend Royal Diamond, I then noticed a lot of money going on Araldo and I couldn’t resist Gatewood at 40/1. Cavalryman in nrnb. Johnny Murtagh has got two cracking jockeys for his horses And, having said I’d back stall 5 I had to stick with it. Sum total of bets was £2.90
Is it just me or has Ambivalent been renamed to My Ambivalent? Bit odd…
I think Admire Rakti will take the beating, but will have Mutual Regard each way.
There’s already currently a horse in training in Oz called Ambivalent Rich.
Anyhow, regardless of what she’s called she is a genuine group 1 filly nowadays and if they can settle her in the prelimineries then she is way overpriced at 40/1 IMO.
Perfect weight, perfect age & perfect draw. She’s bred to get the trip and has the speed to count a 3rd in the Sheema Classic to her name. Prior to her LTO flop (too much use made of her ?), the only horses to have beaten her this season were Cirrus Des Aigles, Gentildonna & Flintshire and much as I respect horses like Mutual Regard, he’s a handicapper who failed to win a listed race.
Problem is this race is still an engma and while I’ll have a small interest on the Varian horse something tells me the favourite could take some beating so while stakes will still be quite small I’ll have a saver.
Lee
Having now looked at the racecard it’s probably a bit more complicated than that…..Think I’ll back both Johnny Murtagh horses and my old friend Cavalryman.
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