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For me 2 i like OUR FATHER 20/1 from trends point of view you need a run something he not had.But won at course and runs well 1st time up.
EMPERORS CHOICE 33/1
Would needed the run at weekend ran well for long way come on for run and can run well here for trainer who excels in heavy ground handicap chases.
Monbeg Dude if he runs, or Hawkes Point.
I know Bowen likes Edmund Kean but might be one for another day.
Pandorama interests me if he goes. Had a very promising reappearance last week finishing 7th after looking like he’d be near last turning for home. He should strip fitter for that and if he’s anywhere near the animal he once was he could walk this assuming of course it is the usual bog for the race.
Excellent run from Monbeg Dude yesterday which will set him up nicely for this. I wouldn’t mind if Maloney keeps the ride, but Paul Carberry is a master and would only add to his chances.
I like the look of
Gas Line Boy
for this annual slog.
The Philip Hobbs trained horse ran a big personal best last time out and his rating went from 132 to 147 in the process. It was a race over 3m 5f on soft ground at Haydock and it was a real war of attrition with only 3 of the 8 runners managing to finish. It wasn’t a great race but he stayed on really strongly that day with the other two finishers coming in like despatch riders for the Pony Express in behind.
This has never been the kindest of races to me and I think you need a real Grand National type cuddy, rather than anything with much class. Hopefully that will be the way it pans out here.
Gas Line Boy is 8 years old and hopefully approaching his peak. At 16/1 I think he’s a fair enough play, having put a disappointing seasonal reappearance, where he didn’t jump well, behind him with two wins since.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Latest Forfeit Stage has whittled the field down a little bit, so makes it quite easy
to find the winner now.Shotgun Paddy
heads the betting, as low as 7’s, just ahead of Midnight Prayer
, and Monbeg Dude
. Not difficult to see the appeal with Shotgun Paddy, his win in The Classic Chase at Warwick, showed the right credentials for this. Maybe not, on paper, the best renewal of that race, but visually, he certainly looked the part. He followed that up with an excellent second to Midnight Prayer in the 4 miler at The Festival, and with a clear liking for Chepstow, he probably deserves his place near, if not at the head of the market. Looking for negatives, he was far from impressive over hurdles last time, admittedly in race he wasn’t entitled to be too competitive in, but I’d still like to have seen more from him that day. He was beaten fairly quickly, eventually beaten a distance. Supporters will also be hoping the top 2 stand their ground, as a big ask for him to top lump weight round here. If that Newbury run over timber has blown away the cobwebs though, then an obvious player, but it just left a slight doubt for me. I’ll take a chance and reluctantly leave him out of the equation. Midnight Prayer comes here off the back of a satisfactory seasonal debut, eventually finishing down the field in The Hennessy. He was clearly going the right way last season, a season which culminated with that victory in the 4 miler. He unseated in his only run here before, but on the whole he looks the right type for this. Not got too many miles on the clock for a 9 year old, and doesn’t appear to be too ground dependent, so coupled with his obvious stamina, then he ticks plenty of boxes, and looks to have a serious chance, but not much appeal Antepost, as he’s fragile. Ahead of him in The Hennessy was former winner of this, Monbeg Dude. A very decent effort from him at Newbury, and should have him spot on for this. I don’t think he was the slickest jumper in the past, but he seems to have really got his act together, and bar The Grimthopre last season at Doncaster, he had plenty of runs to give encouragement, always mixing it in decent company. Certainly a lot higher in the weights than his win here 2 years ago, but he’s clearly a better horse now, and with him virtually guaranteed to relish the conditions, which’ll find plenty of the others out, then he’s a huge danger to all.Another previous winner, Mountainous
, stands his ground, and interesting that he took in the same prep race at Chepstow, The Welsh National Trial, this time around. He’ll no doubt benefit from the step up in trip, and with a fair chance the ground will deteriorate in the next fortnight, then he’ll find conditions very much to his liking. He was the second winner of the race in 3 years for Richard Lee, so he clearly knows how to get them ready for this. Although you’d expect something better treated to be lurking further down the field, there’s no denying the 16’s available on him looks pretty generous for each way players. Hawkes Point
, runner up to Mountainous in this last year, also looks to be following the same path, again taking in that Chepstow race as his prep. Like Mountainous, he ran as if he really needed the run, but he actually fared much better, really running on at the end to nab 3rd, and he’s got to come in to the reckoning for this. He followed up his second here last year, with a couple of average runs, including being well beaten in The National. I just feel though, that he’ll have been laid out for this, and as he was running on the at the end last time, it would be no surprise to see him considerably closer in this. Another who’s available at a very tempting price for each way punters, with a few firms still going 14’s.That Welsh National Trial was won by Rebeccas Choice
, who I thought was quite impressive, and might just be a bit overlooked here. Unlike Amigo
, who was in second, I think he might benefit even more for the extended trip round here. He’ll run with a featherweight, and if from a more fashionable stable, there’s surely no way he’d be available at 25’s, having won the trial round here. I would just prefer him over Amigo, who still ran a game enough race to be second, I’d just be concerned about him turning those places around over further, and although he’d be 2lbs lower this time around, he still came up short in this last year, though worth noting he’s come in for some support in the last 24 hours.Back in 4th was Relax
, trained by Venetia Williams, who’s fresh from her big win at Cheltenham. Relax, who seems to pull up more often than not, was never on my radar for this, until that run at Chepstow last week. He was bang in contention, until appearing to blow up close to home, in what was his first run since February. If that was a "sighter" for this, then they must be tempted to let him take his chance. Not one to totally put your trust in, but looks as if he’s worth a second glance anyway. I’ve had a small bet on him up to 80’s. Also entered from the yard are Rigadin De Beauchene
, Ballyoliver
, Summery Justice
, and Emperors Choice
. Rigadin did me a good turn at Haydock last year, winning in desperate conditions. I know I’ve said it before, but he got absolutely hammered for that win, harshly in my view, and no surprise to see him pull up on his next 2 outings. Those races though, the Scottish National, and The "Whitbread", were on Good To Soft, and he’ll have a good chance of getting his favoured heavy going here, as well as being lowered 3lbs, so not totally out of it. Runner up to him at Haydock that day was Emperors Choice. Really burst on to the scene almost 2 years ago, with a run of victories, and though not been able to keep that run going, he did get his head in front in a real slog at Ffos Las last season. Like Rigadin, he seems to need it like a bog, and there’s always a good chance of it in this race. Has been lowered a handy few lbs, and not started the season too badly, so another one to consider. I’ll almost certainly bet him if he goes. I was lucky enough to catch Ballyoliver at Carlisle last month, where he won in some style, in what was admittedly not the hottest race. Not unduly punished for that, but his next run at Cheltenham he reverted to type, and didn’t look interested, before pulling up. That was enough for me to leave him alone for this. Like this race, Venetia had whole host of entries for The Scottish equivalent last season, and I had Summery Justice down as the pick of them. He went on to land each way money at 50’s. Was I on?……..no I wasn’t, and it still sticks in my throat
He put the decent Burton Port in his place at Newbury last season, and also ran respectably at Sandown, so he’s no forlorn hope. Unlike the majority of his stablemates, he doesn’t seems as ground dependant, so unseasonably good weather won’t inconvenience him..Ahead of him at Lingfield on Saturday, was old favourite West End Rocker
. Only his second run in the best part of 2 years, with his other being an excellent third in last seasons Midlands National. He stood out to me immediately when the entries came out, and though I’d rather have seen him go straight here, as he often goes well fresh, I can’t really grumble with him returning with a win. He’s always been a dependable enough sort, and I’m on up to 80’s. Still available at 33’s, though now as low as 16’s with Ladbrokes. I think he goes here with a live chance, and along with Midnight Prayer, the sole entries for Alan King.I also like (yes, there’s more) the NTD pair, Sybarite
, and Tour Des Champs
. Tour Des Champs was a big fancy for me in this last year, but he was a bitter disappointment. Common sense should see me swerve him this time around then, but he left his run here well behind him after that. He was heavily gambled for The Betbright Chase at Kempton, eventually finishing third, with Saturdays big winner, Niceonefranke, behind him. He then went on to run a screamer at The Festival, finishing fifth behind Holywell, and Ma Filleule. Seems, touch wood, to have put his jumping issues behind him, and given a chance by the handicapper, the 33’s looks generous if you can forgive him last years attempt. Sybarite had been in excellent form over hurdles, and he quickly jumped to the head of my queue for this, as he finally looked to be showing the ability he hinted at as a Novice, before injury intervened. He then looked very moody in The Fixed Brush Hurdle, he was the first beaten, before sprouting wings to finish 6th. He then repeated the feat over hurdles at Cheltenham on Friday, doing all his best work at the end, finishing like a train. Interesting that he stands his ground then for this off the back off his hurdles runs, and if he heads here, then there’s good chance he’ll be keeping on when others have cried enough. There’s a fair chance he could get too detached, switching himself off here, but if in the mood, then not too hard to see a big run. His run at Haydock had me convinced they’d maybe wait with him, and withdraw him for this, so I took a chance on Master Neo as a replacement @ 100’s, in anticipation of a big run in The Becher Chase. That didn’t quite go to plan, and he never featured. He did look the part before this, winning a small affair at Market Rasen, before being asked to repeat the feat 6 days later at Cheltenham in a very competitive handicap won by Sam Winner. He only faded out of contention close to home, and only a few days after his win, it was a decent performance, he was up with them most of the way. He’s not out of it at all based on that, and his run in The Becher has seen him remain available at 50’s. Seems a long time since his trainer, Nigel Hawke landed this, and he could be double handed this time around with Samingarry
also entered. I can’t really have him after his seasonal re-appearance behind Sybarite at Cheltenham, though he does have a few things going for him. He’s got course form, having won here twice last year, including a beating of subsequent Feltham winner, Annacotty, and had the likes of Niceonefrankie, and What A Warrior behind him when he placed at Newbury.Benbens
is another entered from the NTD yard, and we didn’t get to see the best of him at Aintree in The Becher Chase, where he unseated. He looked to be going the right way before that though, and he might be worth a second look. Green Flag
was a big disapointment in that race, well beaten, and beforehand he looked to have plenty going for him. Very encouraging run in The Scottish National, and another to run very well behind Holywell, and Ma Filleule at Cheltenham. Supporters will be hoping he just didn’t take to Aintree, and I’d be inclined to forgive him that, though certainly a watching brief for me in this.At the head of the weights are Harry Topper
, and Unioniste
. Harry burst on to the Gold Cup scene with his win at Newbury last year, but not surprisingly, for a horse who’s so ground dependant, he didn’t get his required heavy going, and he gave it a miss. He then went on to take his chance in the Midlands National, where he pulled up. He then took on the big boys in The Betfair Chase, but again, was something of a disappointment, pulling up. This race can be won off top weight, and he’ll likely relish the conditions, but whether or not he’s actually good enough to lump top weight round here, is debatable. He’s certainly risky at this stage, as he also holds an entry in The Lexus, and you can be 100% certain, ground conditions will dictate where he goes. Unioniste continues to disappoint, as was the case in The Hennessy. He came in for a lot of support, but never struck a blow, and was well beaten. There’s always the suspicion that he’ll pop up in a big race one of these days, the ability is certainly there, and he does continue to come down in the weights. There’s enough bad runs though for me to leave him alone for now, though generally available at 25’s, Paddy Power go as low as 12’s
As well as Unioniste, Nicholls also has Benvolio
entered, and he’s seen some support at 14’s, 16’s. Swept aside by the really well handicapped The Young Master (later disqualified) in The Badger Ales, but I’d still like to have seen him just a tad closer to those filling the frame, to justify his place near the head of the market. His win at Haydock in January, was his 4th in a year, and he seemed to be really going places. What would concern me was his run next time, over 2 miles 6 at Sandown in February. No harm in getting beat By the ill-fated Oscar Whiskey in a 3 runner affair, but the sheer manner he went down just concerned me a little, and he was beaten a mile into third place. In his favour is a beating of Midnight Prayer, and Gas Line Boy at Newbury last year, and he’ll clearly handle the anticipated heavy going. Possibilities off the back of that, and I could go either way with him, but just got a hunch to leave him alone for now. Beaten by Via Sundown
at Fontwell this year as well, and that horse hardly franked the form in The Hennessy, pulling up having never got competitive. Via Sundown, like Benvolio, has a good few wins to his name over the last year, but he’s also been trounced in that period, behind Corrin Wood at Warwick. He looks a bit high in the weights, and I’ll pass him over here.Nothing more to say on Gas Line Boy
, that Steve hasn’t covered, and clearly a player if he candle the hike in the weights. If over his exertions from last time, then from a stable in form, the 16’s does look tempting. His stablemate, Woodford County
, on the face of it, looks short of what’s required here, but a couple of runs give a glimpse of hope. His win as Novice, over 3 miles on heavy round here at least shows he’ll handle the conditions, and he’s also fresh off the back of a win over 3 miles plus on Soft at Newbury, albeit in a weak affair. Has to step up significantly to land this, but from a top yard, don’t think he’d disgrace himself.I haven’t seen anything from Mart Lane
to suggest he could land this. His win at Market Rasen was certainly a competitive handicap, and it was a decent enough performance, but a million miles from the conditions he’ll face here.Victors Serenade
came into the reckoning for this with his victory here in October. He had Monbeg Dude, Benbens, and Handy Andy
filling the places behind him, not to mention the pulled up Gas Line Boy. That remains his one stand out piece of form though, and he flopped next time at Newcastle off his higher mark, he’s not really for me. Handy Andy doesn’t win enough for me, and doesn’t look good enough, though he should be staying on, and supporters would surely get a run for their money at 40’s.Vics Canvas
was a runaway winner of The Cork National in November, a win for which he was ultimately hammered. I’d be dubious if he could repeat that off his new mark, though if he made the trip across The Irish Sea, I’d have to give him a bit more notice. Risky at this stage anyway, as he also holds an entry for The Paddy Power on the same day. Glenquest
could also make the trip across, and he went in the notebook after his second at Fairyhouse in April behind Jupitor, in what was a really tough handicap. I really wanted him to win at Kelso last week, but he could only finish 4th. That’s probably not good enough to go close here, though he did prove his wellbeing with a win in a big field handicap hurdle last month.Alpha Victor
would have some shout off the back of his second in The Midlands National, but he’s returned this season totally out of sorts, and was very poor last time. He has came down a few pounds though, so not totally out of it, but I’d rather be against him here, and he might be overdue another show of temperament, for which he’s got previous.I’m loathe to abandon any Peter Bowen runner in a big staying chase, and his Edmund Kean
, could be something of a dark horse. The trainer’s a big fan of him, and certainly flagged up this race for him some time ago. He’s certainly looked a horse of promise in the past, and looked to have been brought along carefully by his handler. He looks a bit inexperienced though, and didn’t seem to enjoy the experience in The Scottish National. As Rich says, maybe one for the future. Dark Glacier
seems to have been kicking about for years, and I would never have thought of him as having potential for something like this, but his second to Balbriggan in the summer, followed by winning a dour slog at Carlisle gives him a squeak. I’m just put off by his run last time, where he pulled up behind Gas Line Boy, and it might just be his win at Carlisle is as good as he is.Evan Williams has 3 entered, One In A Milan
, Firebird Flyer
, and Copper Birch
. One In A Milan, looks to have been campaigned carefully since making the frame in this last year, and he looks a live one at 25’s. He’ll come here a pound lower, and though maybe, place, rather than win material, he’s got to appeal to a few. I’d struggle to see him go off anything like the 25’s he is now. He was in the process of running a decent race in The Grand National, when he came down at Second Bechers……I think he might just nick one of the big staying pots in the near future. Firebird Flyer is likeable enough, and his second to Emperors Choice last season, shows he can handle the type of test he’ll face here, though I think on bare form, he’s not done nearly enough to land this. Copper Birch looks up against it.There’s a few more lurking down the bottom, but that’s more than enough for now.
I’ve already started, and greened out an early book on this.
I’ll be with two or three from this quartet
Emperors Choice
Mountainous
Tour Des Champs
Vics Canvas (if he travels)Another fine write-up, Bobby, thanks.
Richard Lee’s the man for this, so Mountainous for me.
I used to like West End Rocker, but he can be most unpredictable, and run very sourly at times. I suspect it’s something physical, as he seems honest enough in the main.
Good luck
Great write up as ever VTC, you’ve helped me whittle it down to 10
Could be 9 now after reading the Grand National thread. Again I have mixed up the Night in Milan and One In A Milan horses
Tour Des Champs is interesting-ran in some good races as a 6 year old last season without winning but if he has matured over the summer and improves his jumping he could have a say off a good mark
If I thought he stood a chance of getting into the race I’d back Global Power who seems to be improving having come back from injury.
I sometimes have a quick look at the trends before a big race and the Welsh National throws up a few interesting ones, namely that there have been no winners older than 8 in the last 10 years, with all of the previous 5 winners being aged 8. Low weights tend to do well too, with Synchronised the only winner more than 11st5 since Master Oats in 1994. This bodes well for my new fancy Tour Des Champs…
I had a look at Tour Des Champs but can’t get enthused about him, he’s two months away from not having won for two years and he was pulled up in this race last year.
Strangely enough I am drawn to Twiston-Davies other contender via a dream. In this dream I was watching a race in a betting shop and the winning jockey was being interviewed. The caption came up showing that the pilot was called Ben Benn. Perhaps a grandson of the late Labour MP Tony Benn, but anyway I looked at The Welsh National odds in the morning and saw Benbens and it’s been on my mind since.
Who needs a formbook?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, when I was 19, I dreamt I was at a party. A game was suggested in which a picture of a girl was passed round. First to identify her won the prize. It reached me and I shouted ‘Marie Denise!’
On the bus to work (in Ladbrokes) next morning, I opened the paper and found a novice hurdler I’d never heard of – Marie Denise.
I put ten bob on her and a ten bob double with one of my favourite horses, Spanish Steps. MD won at 10s, SS at 4s.
The following summer, I dreamt of a horse galloping so far clear I could see no rivals, It was on a right hand track and the horse wore a crown. Three days later, Royalty won at Ascot at, I think, 10/3.
I never again dreamed of anything connected with betting winners.
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