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Just got off the ‘phone to Mark Bradstock. Carruthers schooled very nicely this morning and does his last piece of fast work tomorrow.
PS he was at Exeter and said that Denman worked like a lary *******.
Just got off the ‘phone to Mark Bradstock. Carruthers schooled very nicely this morning and does his last piece of fast work tomorrow.
Followed by the rain dance, no doubt?
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I think he was running a belter at aintree DESPITE of the course and conditions.The big horse was running MDB down in my opinion,yes he was tired but he showed his guts and heart to stay in that.People slightly underestimate MDB and the improvement last year….especially round flat tracks.Denman of the year before would have struggled round aintree that day.Denman was wrong from day 1 last season….this year even PN admits he has Denman at his pre-season weight again.The big horse might just surprise a few next week.
Not sure that Denman was "running MDB down", but I’d certainly agree that he ran a belter in the circumstances.
It’s no secret they were looking after the horse last season and the Aintree run was clearly a continuation of that policy. In a race run at a steady pace (The time compares poorly with the only other race over the course that day – the gd3 handicap won by Oh Crick) the horse was ridden nothing like the Denman who had carried all before him the previous season; being held up to the point where he was still vying for last place with only a circuit to go. Given that, and the sharp course and g/s ground, it’s hardly surprising that he struggled to match strides with the ferret that is MDB, when the taps were turned on.
They don’t call him ‘The Tank’ for nothing, and it’s clear he’s won all his best races in circumstances that suit such a vehicle, and when ridden to take advantage of his constitution. For the life of me, I can see no reason to run him giving lumps of weight away in another Hennessy other than they think the horse is back to his best. There are plenty of oppotunities for easier pickings if he wasn’t fully recovered, none so lucrative and with promise of circumstances so close to his optimum.
Whether that best is good enough at this stage is a moot point, but, given ground to ensure a proper stamina test, I’d be fairly confident he won’t be disgraced.I just cant see denman winning this, even back to his best he’s running off too high a rating. He will need tov improve on his best. IMO theres a decent horse or two low in the handicap for every type of going, except possibly good going where I think the best horse is his stablemate.
On good to soft or worse he has to give weight away to the likes of Killyglen, killy glen destroyed shining gale at aintree on a similar enough surface to what shining gale won on with top weight on saturday, which sort of makes me think even more strongly than before that Killyglen is well in with the handicapper, and may have improved since last year.
I always thought towards the end of last season that Killyglen was the best of the 3mile novice chasers but got too quick a surface at cheltenham to beat Cooldine, but when they overwatered aintree he stamped his authority in style.
Carruthers is an absolute monster on soft or worse conditions and I think he would give denman a hell of race at level weights on those terms, let alone with the amount of weight he is getting.
I cannot see denman winning on anything other than good, not because he is best on good but because I think the field is weakest on good, and on a worse surface there is far too much strength in depth for him to win off his rating, I think a few of these are 10-15lbs well in on their ideal terms, and denman would have to run to about 190 to compete with them.
I just hope the big horse can get into a decent rythm on saturday and we could get something of the old tank back.
Gutted that i wont see it live on saturday due to follow following my team to aberdeen…but i hope to come back in at night,turn on the sky+ and see a Denman destruction job.
Personally i can see it between killyglen and barbers shop tho….it will take a monumental performance from Denman.
How great would it be though if the 2 icons of the staying chaser division got to the GC in the form of their lives(throw in the likes of cooldine,IC etc),we could have a GC to savour.
Forever the optimist
And what is Cappa Bleu carrying next Saturday?
10st smack on unless Denman defects. He’s probably got as much, if not more, to find on adjusted ratings than any other likely starter, and I’ve not combed the trends to establish whether flyweights even prosper to any noteworthy degree in the race.
However, purely for his status as a standard-bearer for the pointing and hunter chase scene which I hold dear, I’m crossing everything for him. We’re all going to know a bit more about how serious a proposition he is for the season by around 3pm on Saturday, put it that way.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
and I’ve not combed the trends to establish whether flyweights even prosper to any noteworthy degree in the race.gc
To this day i dont know how One man got in with 10 stone!He had run in the previous seasons RSA,which has proven form lines for future Hennessey winners carrying a ton more than 10-0lb,ie Trabolgan 11-12,Denman 11-12.Monsieur le cure who beat One Man would have certainly not got 11-12!History shows that both ends of the handicapping scale provide equal amounts of winners for this great race!
I want Denman to win. Whether he will or not is another thing.
He loves Newbury and will, if fit, run a good race, but –
What A Friend is the one who I would choose as a feasible alternative.Paul Nicholls said he has him laid out for this race and expects him to go close.
Trusting that his jumping does not let him down, that is.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Denman for me all the way. Dodgy ticker, top weight, first run of the season… I’ll still take him over the rest of the field. He’ll be too good for this lot.
Denman to win by 5+ lengths.
Looks like
Carruthers
is out of the race now!Just gone 220 on Betfair and i am not taking it!
Mucky scope apparently.
What is annoying me about this race is that it is beginning to look likely that State Of Play is going to run. I first mentioned him for the Hennessy in April or May, and have mentioned him in about four posts altogether here and on betfair, but because Williams said he was fat as a bull I didn’t get on, and all I have is a measly £1.50 at 65.
On the Denman issue, I’ll restrict it to saying that I think he can win. I think people are reading too much into the Aintree run, and using that to obscure the Cheltenham run. Off 174, he only needs to turn in a 184 or so, which he has done before. Sorry about reducing flesh to numbers, but that is the only way I can comprehend these matters.
State Of Play is my horse for the National next year and i think he could be a good E/W bet here
Paul Nicholls has said to ATR that his ‘gut’ tells him Denman will do no better than finish fourth or fifth….
And they’re OFF!…
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He said pretty much the same before he won it the last time, OTS.
Though he’s meeting slightly higher rated horses than before, it might be worth bearing in mind that they weren’t regarded as slouches before the race, and he did beat them pointless. Improved again since when winning his Gold Cup and, if he’s really back to his best, he’ll make them all go, imo.Connections of Carruthers sound devastated; must have been expecting a huge run from him. Would have been so nice for Lord Oaksey to have won tis race. Rotten luck.
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Nicholls said that he doesn’t expect Denman to run better than fourth or fifth, but in the same interview suggested that the horse was back to how he was two seasons ago (i.e. his best) and, on that basis, had a great chance.
That clears that up then
Hi fellas, new to the board but have just posted a thread on daily lays and plays…..
my two pence worth on the Hennessy:
First and foremost, I would not be that concerned about Denman having top weight of 11st12, my philosophy on racing in general is that the key to finding a winner from a race is firstly try and predict how the race will unfold, pick out the front runners, midfield, held up etc, and secondly, especially in the handicap, assess the relative strength of each horse compared to its handicap rating, looking at past form and collateral form between each runner, and then consider the effect of the ground (which is critical) and then the reflected odds.
In light of this, Denman does look sort at 4/1, but looks to have a very good chance nonetheless. He looks sure to be prominently placed by Walsh, and could simply run his rivals into the ground as plenty of them look either exposed, inexperienced (esp on predicted soft going), or have been beaten by Denman before. Also in Nicholls stable tour (how reliable this is as an influence to horse selection I’m not sure) he goes on record to say that he is fit and well, despite obvious concerns about the weight and handicap mark. Like another poster said, if Denman was twice the odds, he would be the bet of the day, but at 4/1 (ruling out a profit if playing ew), the value is questionable.
However, a good eachwway shout looks to be Snowy Morning at 25/1 (b365). Assurances are stamina and soft ground form, and although at 9 y/o isnt a progressive, up and coming performer, those two traits in this kind of race makes him a contender to finish in the first 4.
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