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I would be against Denman this time (and from now on, I think). Agreed the Gold Cup form looks good sandwiched between Kempton and Aintree but it was the manner which he was campaigned that concerned me.
At Kempton he was returning from an illness and it looked as though the world had moved on in his absence.
On the surface Cheltenham looked great but he was handled so gingerly that he reminded me a of a heavyweight fighter who gets by on class but has stopped throwing punches.
He was also ridden very conservatively in a relativly small field at Aintree still sixth or seventh at the last in the back before moving up to be the only threat to MDB on the home turn. He was empty when he fell.
So what will they do at Newbury…has he the constitution for a bold front run?….I doubt it now.
Can he creep through the field as he attempted at Aintree or to a lesser extent in the GC…I am not sure he is mentally tough enough for that any more. All results are possible for the big chestnut with unplaced being the favourite for me, I think pulled up is more likely than a win.I think he was running a belter at aintree DESPITE of the course and conditions.The big horse was running MDB down in my opinion,yes he was tired but he showed his guts and heart to stay in that.People slightly underestimate MDB and the improvement last year….especially round flat tracks.Denman of the year before would have struggled round aintree that day.Denman was wrong from day 1 last season….this year even PN admits he has Denman at his pre-season weight again.The big horse might just surprise a few next week.
Theer’s no reason to believe Denman won’t be as good as he was 2 seasons ago. We all know he had his problems but I don’t think his performance in last season’s Gold Cup was far off his performance in the 2008 renewal tbh.
His Cheltenham performance was solid, but then we have to consider his Aintree effort. Perhaps it was too soon after his Gold Cup run, but he was absolutely knackered when he fell – he just couldn’t get his legs up.
It’s like comparing One Man with his Hennessy victory and Gold Cup flops. Same trip, but you just can’t compare Newbury and Cheltenham.
Killyglen has had the benefit of a run and what a fine effort it was. Charlie Mann thinks a helluva lot of Shining Gale, but this horse p***ed all over it at Aintree. This horse has a high ceiling and I’d be very impressed if Denman can give him so much weight and a beating.
The Tank would be back, but I’d want to see it for myself.
His run at Aintree was too soon after the Gold Cup and he was a spent force – it was as much getting him there as the actual race imo. Just imagine what would have happened if they’d gone to Liverpool the year before – he wouldn’t have shown his best that’s for sure. Kauto Star came back after running poorly at the National meeting and I expect Denman to do the same. I think it’s madness running horses after the Gold Cup and any below par effort can be forgiven
I’m not sure what your point is with regard to One Man. He won the Hennessy off 135 and his Gold Cup runs were better from a form point of view.
I backed Killyglen at 10s earlier in the week. His form looks rock solid.
Euro,
The One Man comparison wasn’t exactly clear was it? I realized that after submitting my post, but the editing option wasn’t available on my iPod! My apologies.
You said Cappa Bleu looked ‘knackered, slow and ordinary’ in the Foxhunters. The Foxhunters is run over the same CD as the Gold Cup. One Man looked knackered (something of an understatement, I know) in two Gold Cups, but look what he did in the Hennessy over the same trip.
I think three miles-two in testing conditions around Newbury will be right up Cappa Bleu’s street. Will be all the better for the race and experience at Aintree and he’s open to any amount of improvement.
I can see him running a big race.
I’d be surprised if Killyglen isn’t thereabouts. Everything points to him also running a big race.
Denman has to give lumps of weight to these improving, unexposed types and there’s still a question mark hanging over him. I think there’s every chance that he may not even make the frame.
If he runs a huge race and Kauto Star comes back as good as ever tomorrow, we could be in for one almighty battle come March.
In his attempts at the Gold Cup One Man carried 12st or thereabouts – in his Hennessy he humped round 10st or maybe a bit more.
In his attempts at the Gold Cup One Man carried 12st or thereabouts – in his Hennessy he humped round 10st or maybe a bit more.
And what is Cappa Bleu carrying next Saturday?
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Too much to bother Denman
He’s no One Man that’s for sureFist,
Denman wouldn’t see which way One Man went anywhere between two (obviously) and three miles.
One Man Vs Kauto Star over two, two and a half and three miles would have been something. Imagine those two locking horns at Kempton.
Sadly, One Man will always be remembered for his Gold Cup flops rather than being the only horse to win a Hennessy, King George and Queen Mother Champion Chase.
An incredible feat.
Denman is no One Man.
Denman is no One Man.
Over 3 miles or less no he isn’t. But equally Denman would have run him ragged over 3m2. On their best form they would have been of similar merit.
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It’s long stick Bos and you’ve got the wrong end of it
I was saying Cappa Bleu was no One Man.I was a huge One Man fan but truthfully from the heart I doubt if any chaser I’ve seen since "Himself" was strutting his stuff in the 60’s would have beaten Kauto Star 2 years ago at Kempton……… Exotic Dancer had run Kauto Star to 1/2 a length at Haydock and went to Kempton in the best form of his life with sound hopes, they thought, of reversing the form. Tony McCoy has ridden thousands of horse and I’ll never forget how shocked he was stating afterwards "Pegaus couldn’t beat that fookin thing"
One Man was a lovely horse but his Hennessy win with 10st hardly rates with Denman’s win with 11st12lbs…….Now you imagine if Denman was in this Hennessy with 10st
He’d be back in Ditchat before the rest finished Can I have moan?
The Hennessy in terms of prestige is the second biggest staying handicap chase during the season. Of course the Grand National remains at the top of the list.
But because it’s run at Newbury Mr Smith, the handicapper, doesn’t up the mark of the likes of Denman, Gone To Lunch, Darkness, State of Play et al for winning either over the course or indeed both course and distance. Yet he does when a horse wins over the Aintree obstacles.
And for what reason. The only reason that I can see the need to manipulate a horses mark for Aintree is so that the lunch they hold to announce the weights would be extremely dull because everyone would know where they stood prior to the announcement.
For Christ’s sake BHA, stop this farce at once. The race will be worth £1,000,000 by 2013 so a horse should be running of it’s proper mark otherwise it makes a mockery of the whole handicapping system by allowing so called "better" horses to run off much lower marks than they should. It’s unfair and blatantly favouring some horses over others.
Moan over.
This all revolves around ground on the day for me. The horses I’d want to be on for the different goings would be.
Good ground
What A Friend 7-1
Snowy Morning 25-1Good-Sft
Killyglen 8-1
Casey Jones 20-1Soft
Killyglen 8-1
Carruthers 12-1Heavy
Carruthers 12-1
Kornati Kid 28-1I have backed
Denman
7/1 antepost. Happy with the price but wouldn’t say I’m confident.
I think his biggest threat is
Killyglen
. Barbers Shop looks on a very lenient mark but the trip is a worry and it will be a proper test.
Horses of interest at bigger prices include
Gone to Lunch
(TBP),
State of Play
(if he runs) and
New Alco
(always thought this was a proper horse, goes well fresh and will be a big price)
Denman is a stone cold lay. He is a wonderful horse and it will be great to see him back, but anybody considering backing him for this race would do well to remember the following.
* His scintillating GC win left its mark on him as has been well publicised: granted he ran a cracker in last year’s GC. But let us face it: he was ridden to get second and given a pretty tender ride – all very understandable in the circumstances. But, his run at Aintree was a dead cat bounce. So many good horses never recover from their exertions of winning the GC and until he shows that he has done so
on the racecourse
, he is only for the dreamers.
* The older a horse becomes, the more likely he is to need his first run of the season: Let us presume he
is
back to his best (i.e. an RPR of 184), lack of a run combined with the fact that (I presume) this is not his main objective this season one would expect him to put up a performance of about 177. That would be one hell of an achivement, a great feat of training, good enough to win most Cheltenham Gold cups etc.,
but still not good enough to win the race
!
Weight adjusted, that means that only one of Roll Along, My Will, Barbers Shop, War of Attrition, What a Friend, Gone to Lunch, Carruthers, Chelsea Harbour, or Ballyfitz have to run to form and they will have him beat. Cappa Bleu, anybody?).
There’s been quite a lot of talk about his first Hennessy win. With 20/20 hindsight he was well handicapped, running against an inferior field to this one and fully wound up so that Mr H Findlay could get his money down under a smokescreen of some pretty misleading pre-race comments from his trainer.
Not for me!
Denman won’t finish in the first five.
What a weird thing to say about a horse who has never been out of the first 2 and ran in much better races than this.
Relatively simple equation for me, Fist.
I don’t reckon Denman will run to a mark of 174, and I think a few below him will run to marks higher than they are currently allotted.
I know Denman has no problem lugging big weights, and I know he has top-notch track form – I just think he is badly handicapped.
For me, he has probably run to about a 170 rating in the latest Gold Cup, but the handicapper couldn’t be seen to drop him drastically from 182, because it would have made him (the handicapper) look like a muppet. Denman was dropped a mere 1lb to 181 after the Gold Cup, and dropped a further 7lbs when not even completing the course at Aintree. It is complete guesswork, and not even competent guesswork, because it’s primary purpose is to mask the inflated original rating, rather than reflect the level of form that Denman has run to.
If Denman is fully over whatever was ailing him last season, then he can doubtless turn in a big performance. But he will need to run very, very close to his Gold Cup winning form (minimum 176, imo), to prevail on Saturday. In three races last year, he didn’t get close to that kind of mark, and I think he is for opposing – especially so in such a competitive handicap as this – until there is some evidence that he has returned to something like his imperious best.
Denman might provide that evidence on Saturday, but I have my doubts.
Denman won’t finish in the first five.
It takes a brave man to make a statement like that,bearing in mind this particular horses record!I personally think he has No chance of winning at these weights.P,Nicholls knows that Denman cannot give near on 2 stone to What a friend,his stable companion,who as a 2nd season chaser with very decent novice form is thrown in,but then again so too is that monkey Ballyfitz and several others including Denmans old enemy Snowy morning who is 2 stone better off for the 10 lengths that seperated them in the 07 RSA.If the Real Denman who won the 08 Gold Cup does turn up he could finish in the first 7, the other Denman will get pulled up!
I just hope this run doesnt bottom Denman out.
I want to see Denman who was winning the GC in 2008, not Denman who has been flogged conceding lumps of weight to decent horses.
It is a very big ask of him to win on Saturday, i just hope he comes out of the race in great health and gets back to firing on all cylinders for the remainder of the season.
He’s no One Man that’s for sure
He’d be back in Ditchat before the rest finished 
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