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I’m not generally a fan of betting in handicaps so far in advance of the race, but I’ve had small interests in
Atouchbetweenacara
(14/1) and
Joe Lively
(40/1).
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m2f110yds Chase Newbury.
9 11-12 Denman
174 Brilliant winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2008. Well handicapped on that run, despite now being off a 13lbs higher mark than when successful in this race two years ago. Needs to be better than last season when having heart problems. Stable are making all the right noises about him. 5/1 fav.
7 10-6 Killyglen
154 Won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree on final start in 08/09 after being pulled up in RSA chase (interupted preparation). Below form at Carlisle on reappearance, but over a vastly inadequate trip (2 ½ miles). Stable is in much better form now too. Second season chaser with potential to improve. Goes well on a soft surface. 9/1
7 10-8 Barbers Shop
156 Well backed in recent days to give The Queen a Hennessy winner. Seemed an unlikely stayer but ran really well 7th in Gold Cup at this trip. Not run yet in 2009/10 but runs very well fresh (2nd in Paddy Power Gold Cup last term). Should run well here if conditions don’t place too much emphasis on stamina. 10/1
9 10-9 My Will
157 Suited by 3m2f plus. Ran a good race to be 5th in last years Cheltenham Gold Cup. A little below form 3rd in Grand National and now races off a 5lb higher mark. Ran reasonably first time out, never with much chance of winning when 15 lengths 2nd to The Listener in a 3m grade 1 chase in Ireland. Seems more exposed than most in this field. 33/1
6 10-0 (9-11) Calgary Bay
145 Very well thought of last season, disappointed when second favourite for Arkle chase. Is a big brute of a horse, type to improve with age. Yet to race further than 2m4f. 33/1
). Showed his class when winning the Dipper at Cheltenham over two miles-five. A watching brief, but it will be interesting to see how he goes over this trip with that weight on his back, on a course that plays to his strengths, with ideal conditions.8 11-2 Alberta’s Run
164 Inconsistent, won RSA novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 08. Best run since when well beaten (by Kauto Star) second in King George VI last December. Possibly better in smaller fields. 40/1
Some nice work there, Ginge.
I will make a final decision Saturday, but I’ve commented on a few in
I do like the look of Killyglen and My Will.I still think that the "tank" is the key to this.
He had a problem last season,his first run was needed very very badly(round kempton of all places to run him!),was also up against a horse who is probably THE best 3m chaser on a flat track outside Kauto.
In the gold cup he ran another absolute blinder despite being nowhere near 100%.
Sending him to aintree(again…aintree ffs) was probably in hindsight a mistake.He still probably wasnt 100% as PN says he needs to be big from the start of the season for something to work on…but last season was far too lean because of the heart problems etc.Imo he was going to beat MDB that day..now even the Denman of 2008 would have had a job round aintree on good over 3miles beating MDB never mind one with such interrupted preperations.
This year he seems to physically anyway be the "tank" of 2008…i think it will come down to how he mentally recovers from aintree though.
Yes hes nearly a stone higher than his last hennessey win,and there will be a niggle about how his heart prob affected him,but the big horse loves newbury and if he retains that old sparkle he might just grind them into submission again.
well HOPEFULLY
PS I like the look of killyglen.
Though i backed Gone to Lunch a few weeks back and now Trafford Lad is out i am on Cappa Bleu
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Denman won’t finish in the first five.
What a weird thing to say about a horse who has never been out of the first 2 and ran in much better races than this. More chance of Mark Johnsson’s hyped to hell, Staff Seargent getting beat tonight at Kempton than Denman finishing out of the first 5 if he’s near right.
I honestly think this course suits him better than Cheltenham and when I look for dangers at the weights I can find very little. What a Friend, Can’t Buy Time and Cappa Blue but the latter two are more or less fully exposed to how much ability they have.
It’s not like Danman’s got to hump 12st7lbs so he’s very well in most of those in the Handicap Won’t run. If Alberta’s Run turns up it will be as an after thought and only if the ground was livle and Notre Pere has gone already I believe.
Cut them up into groups of 2 as in A v B Denman being A and he’d be 1/3 to beat any of them at the weights. As most likely he’ll make all the running it won’t matter to him if there’s one horse or 25 to beat as he won’t see them anyway
Get on Grassy and do what your Uncle Fist tells ya. Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m2f110yds Chase Newbury.
but went to Aintree and then Uttoxeter over three miles (take note, Ginge
)Changed
Value Is EverythingDenman won’t finish in the first five.
A huge statement, Grass. I love it!!
Not too often we agree, but I would be inclined to agree with you here. I’d much rather be against than with the big lad at this present time.
The horse isn’t nearly in the same form he was two years ago and, in my opinion, this is a far better renewal and he’ll be giving lumps of weight away to some very good and / or unexposed horses.
It would rank up there with the very best performances I’ve seen if he were to cone out on top, but trying to give that kind of weight to the likes of Killyglen, What A Friend, Carruthers, Cappa Bleu and Gone To Lunch is a big, big ask.
Wouldn’t surprise me if he was pulled up, either.
I think Denman has lost that aura about him, too. Madison Du Berlais proved at Kempton (regardless of the track and wellbeing) that you can take him on if you have the right type of horse and trainers clearly fancy their chances judging by the quality in the line-up.
I think quite a number are glad Denman’s in the field.
Like I said, I would love to see him come back to his best, but right now I’m not convinced he can.
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If you take everything into account Denman put up the best performance of his life not when he won the Gold Cup but when he was second in it.
Let’s not forget, unless ofcourse you disagree, that while Kauto Star was no where near right in Denman’s Gold Cup. The same is probably true about Denman last year when he was beaten by Kauto
Yet the improvement he showed amazing improvement between being hammered by MDB and beating everthing bar one in the Gold Cup.
I don’t knoww what you expected of the horse that day but he surprised most including Paul Nichols just how well he ran.
At Aintree the odds were stacked against the horse yet he’s still in there fighting when he falls. Considering how soon after the Gold Cup was, I thinks it faor to say that would also be a minus.
Personally I think Denman showed everyone last year he was all but back to his best and with the time off he’s had and not been ill like before I see no reason why he can’t bounce straight back and kick this moderate bunch of handicappers right into touch.
I can’t even begin to imagine 5 horses getting near Denman let alone passing him. Even if the same horses who finished behind him in last years Gold Cup were entered in this handicap they would be well pushed to reverse form with him.
Unless I am half daft and stupid he’ll be fitter for this than he was in the Gold Cup and if he is they won’t see the way he went.
I would be against Denman this time (and from now on, I think). Agreed the Gold Cup form looks good sandwiched between Kempton and Aintree but it was the manner which he was campaigned that concerned me.
At Kempton he was returning from an illness and it looked as though the world had moved on in his absence.
On the surface Cheltenham looked great but he was handled so gingerly that he reminded me a of a heavyweight fighter who gets by on class but has stopped throwing punches.
He was also ridden very conservatively in a relativly small field at Aintree still sixth or seventh at the last in the back before moving up to be the only threat to MDB on the home turn. He was empty when he fell.
So what will they do at Newbury…has he the constitution for a bold front run?….I doubt it now.
Can he creep through the field as he attempted at Aintree or to a lesser extent in the GC…I am not sure he is mentally tough enough for that any more. All results are possible for the big chestnut with unplaced being the favourite for me, I think pulled up is more likely than a win.but trying to give that kind of weight to the likes of Killyglen, What A Friend, Carruthers, Cappa Bleu and Gone To Lunch is a big, big ask.
It seems to me you’re pulled these names out of a hat. Just look how knackered, slow and ordinary Cappa Bleu looked towards the end of the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. Why should a top class animal like Denman not give weight to something like that.
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The horse isn’t nearly in the same form he was two years agoI think Denman has lost that aura about him, too. Madison Du Berlais proved at Kempton (regardless of the track and wellbeing)
Regardless of track? You may as well say regardless of ground or regardless of form. Words cannot express how much Kempton is unsuitable to Denman. And I think you’ll find that his Gold Cup run (form good enough to win the majority of the last dozen or so renewals) wasn’t much below his best.
All that needs to be said is: If Denman runs to the form of his Gold Cup win, he’ll be hard to beat. If he runs to the form of the Gold Cup 2nd, he is likely to be around 5th or 6th. If producing form in between those two performances…
Value Is EverythingJust wish I knew what the going will be like come the day. Carruthers needs it pretty desperate to be at his best and I’d really like to steam in a.s.a.p.
Off topic….
I didn’t think I’d ever come across someone else who liked – amongst some other gems – Little Trouble Girl by Sonic Youth, Bosranic! This monkey will go to heaven if Carruthers gets his ground
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I would be against Denman this time (and from now on, I think). Agreed the Gold Cup form looks good sandwiched between Kempton and Aintree but it was the manner which he was campaigned that concerned me.
At Kempton he was returning from an illness and it looked as though the world had moved on in his absence.
On the surface Cheltenham looked great but he was handled so gingerly that he reminded me a of a heavyweight fighter who gets by on class but has stopped throwing punches.
He was also ridden very conservatively in a relativly small field at Aintree still sixth or seventh at the last in the back before moving up to be the only threat to MDB on the home turn. He was empty when he fell.
So what will they do at Newbury…has he the constitution for a bold front run?….I doubt it now.
Can he creep through the field as he attempted at Aintree or to a lesser extent in the GC…I am not sure he is mentally tough enough for that any more. All results are possible for the big chestnut with unplaced being the favourite for me, I think pulled up is more likely than a win.Shabby
If the manner of his campaign were a concern, surely the last place to start him off would be giving lumps of weight away in one of the major stamina tests of the season?
Like the last time Denman won the race, PN has taken enough trouble to give the horse a racecourse gallop which suggests he’s entirely serious, and the horse has already laughed at the 11.12 impost once around the course and distance.
If there’s any cut in the ground on the day, far from being pulled up, or Grassy’s ‘not in the first 5’, he has possibly his best chance of the season of recording his most lucrative payday (in possibly his ideal circumstances), since his Gold Cup win.
His connections may be many things, but fools or chancers wouldn’t be amongst them.Great reading all the posts.
My antepost bets are based on the assumption the ground will be soft and a strong gallop all the way.I backed Madison last year
and hoping Casey Jones will do the same thing this year. In Denman’s Hennessy 07, madison was ridden way off the pace, staying on late. once they knew he stayed he was ridden more prominent last year. I am hoping the same will be true for casey jones after his strong finish in the RSA. Better going left handed and will love the english soft conditions (as opposed to soft in ireland).One i have backed at a huge price is Mister top Notch, he has been threatening to win a big race and with the presence of denman in the race, will only carry 10 – 9. I still remember the thrashing he gave king jhons castle, giving away 10lbs in 08 leopardstown (left handed galloping track).
good luck whatever you pick, enjoyps note for the weekend, madison loves soft ground, will give both KS and NP a race.
Euro,
The Denman of 2007-2008 (dammit, that sounds a long time ago) could compete with these horses in the forecast conditions without much of a problem, but I’ve said it before (and before that) and I’ll say it again, I’m not convinced he’s the same horse.
His Cheltenham performance was solid, but then we have to consider his Aintree effort. Perhaps it was too soon after his Gold Cup run, but he was absolutely knackered when he fell – he just couldn’t get his legs up.
Now he has to come into this season with that on his mind and at Exeter he, once again, looked reluctant. A trait of his, but it surfaced more often than not last season and it’s not a good sign, in my opinion.
The horses I mentioned in my previous post will all relish the conditions. Carruthers proved at Ascot in the Reynoldstown what a fine jumper he can be and if he serves it up to Denman and is fluent at his fences, the big lad might be looking back at the stables more often than not.
Gone To Lunch (very tenderly treated on his reappearance) will like the track and testing conditions will emphasize his stamina. What A Friend has always been very highly thought of and the Foxhunters is a completely different race to the Hennessy.
It’s like comparing One Man with his Hennessy victory and Gold Cup flops. Same trip, but you just can’t compare Newbury and Cheltenham.
Killyglen has had the benefit of a run and what a fine effort it was. Charlie Mann thinks a helluva lot of Shining Gale, but this horse p***ed all over it at Aintree. This horse has a high ceiling and I’d be very impressed if Denman can give him so much weight and a beating.
The Tank would be back, but I’d want to see it for myself.
). Showed his class when winning the Dipper at Cheltenham over two miles-five. A watching brief, but it will be interesting to see how he goes over this trip with that weight on his back, on a course that plays to his strengths, with ideal conditions.
Get on Grassy and do what your Uncle Fist tells ya. 
and hoping Casey Jones will do the same thing this year. In Denman’s Hennessy 07, madison was ridden way off the pace, staying on late. once they knew he stayed he was ridden more prominent last year. I am hoping the same will be true for casey jones after his strong finish in the RSA. Better going left handed and will love the english soft conditions (as opposed to soft in ireland).- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.