Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Maybe it’s due to the breathtaking performance of Diamond Harry at Haydock, albeit against inferior opposition (although Burton Port has since won), but I agree, Karabak was very smart last season and came within 10 or so lengths of the exceptional Zaynar, 12/1 looks decent value.
Wolverhampton is an outsiders paradise……..
5.20 Nuit Sombre 20/1
5.50 King of Rhythm 7/1Are all those people having ‘max bets’ on Celestial Halo licking their wounds this morning?
The 9.20 at Wolverhampton is a puzzle but can see the classy Nanton as a good bet at 4/1, goes at the track and on a feasible mark of 97, and Alpen Glen each way material at 16/1, will give it a good go from the front again and has won over 1m6f so is stamina laden for this, although I would prefer Joe Front run Fanning in the saddle.
Interesting that he’s willing to take on Ghizao again, but this time over hurdles, and could be a different proposition now going over them. I make Lidar the bet here.
Ok he came second to Shining Gale LTO on soft ground, but prior to that Kia Kaha has performed best on a sound surface. Same goes for The Package and the admirable Any Currency (who also may found the track not to his liking). The Tother One does go on the ground, but has a career high mark to defy. According To Pete has all the ticks in the right boxes – goes on soft, feasible mark, good Cheltenham form (albeit without winning here) and has had three nice prep runs for this. At around 7/1 I make him bet of the day material.
1 JOE LIVELY 11-12
2 THE TOTHER ONE 11-6
3 BEAT THE BOYS 11-3
4 ASHLEY BROOK 10-13
5 KIA KAHA 10-12
6 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT 10-9
7 ACCORDING TO PETE 10-7
8 TRABOLGAN 10-5
9 POMME TIEPY 10-5
10 THE PACKAGE 10-0
11 ZACHAROVA 10-0
12 ANY CURRENCY 10-0My shortlist includes JOE LIVELY, BEAT THE BOYS, OFFSHORE ACCOUNT and ACCORDING TO PETE.
Joe Lively is on a tough enough mark on 158 and shoulders top weight here, but is a tenacious sort and should give it a bold go, should be in first 4.
Beat the Boys – Twiston-Davies is probably considering this a prep run if going for the Welsh National in two weeks but nonetheless should be involved here, albeit on a career high mark of 149.
Offshore Account – unseated early in the Hennessy but has proven stamina and goes on the ground, should run into a place.
According to Pete – my idea of the winner here on a viable mark of 139, 4lb lower than when a good 5th to Tranquil Sea in the PP. Stays well and goes on the ground, should be in contention.
Win – According to Pete
Place – Joe Lively, Beat the Boys, Offshore Account.well, back down to level stakes now, think i’ll give up the tipping for a while and come back hopefully refreshed in January
Salut.Two class 4’s, could be worse!
LITTLE PETE in the 6.00 takes my eye after a good third last time behind Daddy’s Gift, runs off the same mark of 84, good draw, should be in the mix.
SP’s
Deep Purple 12/1
Tartak 8/1Can’t believe DP was that big, well done that man whoever tipped him up, and i’ll take a bow for tipping up the 2nd
Alberta’s jumped terribly, as did Tidal Bay, Racing Demon not fit, Deep Purple won quite well but Herecomesthetruth would’ve pushed him if he hadn’t unseated – my other selection Tartak did well to finish 2nd despite some bad jumps. Good race and Deep Purple is a chaser to be reckoned with at both 3 and 2 and a half miles.
Far too many question marks on a lot of these – Racing Demon with fitness, Tidal Bay with his in and out performances this last year, Albertas Run with slightly softer ground and 10lb to contend with, Deep Purple with the ground…Herecomesthetruth has won 8 of his 12 races and apart from pulling up 2 starts ago, has won all of his chases and is by far the most progressive horse in the race; could easily improve again and beat the seasoned chasers here.
+1 now after a stinking run of losses –
Today i’m plumping for FREDDIE THE THIRD in the 2.10 Ludlow. Interesting off a bantomweight of 10 stone in an albeit quite competitive handicap, he runs off a mark of 101, his lowest yet, after some average runs in slightly more difficult races than this. Obviously goes on the ground and although without a win for 2 years, he didn’t do that badly in the Tolworth Hurdle at the beginning of last year and has needed the 3 or 4 runs he has had this campaign to get him straight. This flatter track might suit and take the stress off the jumping department and at a price of 12/1 looks a good value bet.
Tidal Bay just hasn’t convinced this past year, jumping has been an issue, and sometimes attitude as well. But having said that, Howard Johnson has this knack of pulling it off in big races in the face of adversity.
Racing Demon has too many question marks also for my liking. Fitness has to be taken on trust, and is rather hit and miss.
Herecomesthetruth is the most progressive horse in the race without doubt and is in peak condition. He gets my vote ahead of Tartak who is also progressive, and despite his poor last two runs (in two extremely competitive races) his C&D win around this time last year is valuable form to go on.
King of Defence 2nd but Where’s Susie also ran.
The Kempton 8.50 interests me now as Mr. Plod is a NR. 2 horses stand out. One horse in first time handicap is FLYING GAZEBO, who has bits and pieces of form (finishing ahead of some rating in the high 60’s), and at 25/1 now upped in trip from the shrewd J Moore yard is worth an ew bet.
The other one is SOVENTO, a middle distance winner in Germany, is down to a mark of 52 after some tough assignments in Ireland, but ran OK in a competitive handicap at Catterick last time behind the usefil Simple Jim. Hayley Turner now takes over and he’s worth a bet at around 9/1.
I like King of Defence too – also like Where’s Susie in the 3.30, had a recent run over hurdles and is well treated on return to the flat, decent ew at around 14/1.
Salut.