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Am I the only one who is perplexed by the prices here?
Karabak (presuming he goes here after missing the Relkeel) is a far bigger price than Diamond Harry. Did he not beat him in the Ballymore last year and if any horse looked like it would need the step up to three miles, it was the King horse.
I’d fully expect Big Bucks to win but surely Karabak is some value at the current odds, especially w/o Big Bucks. Diamond Harry was impressive at Haydock but in hindsight, he was well in off that mark and he will still need to improve a lot to make the grade here. Given the way he hung left at times last year, there is every reason to believe he might not be the same horse going right handed.
I know King has been in and out of form recently but surely 5/2 Diamond Harry and 12/1 Karabak is all wrong?
Maybe it’s due to the breathtaking performance of Diamond Harry at Haydock, albeit against inferior opposition (although Burton Port has since won), but I agree, Karabak was very smart last season and came within 10 or so lengths of the exceptional Zaynar, 12/1 looks decent value.
You have got to take the 12/1 then Imperial,if you believe in the literal interpretation of the Ballymore form!The 1st 3 home at Cheltenham are all serious horses,i personally think the softer the ground the better for Diamond Harry,but Big Bucks did beat Punchestowns on heavy,so i will be a spectator of what should be a fascinating race!
An intriguing contest. Huge fan of both, but Big Buck’s has the solid form to back up his claims.
Big Buck’s for me.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
This race is primed for Karabak if you ask me.
Should be there or there abouts.
12/1 is a big price.
The fact that Karabak has course form looks a big plus in this field. Diamond Harry has never run right-handed in his career to date and it surely can’t be a coincidence that Big Buck’s has raced left-handed in all his starts for the Nicholls stable.
Both may take to Ascot with no problems, but given that they both have a history of running off a straight line under pressure, I certainly wouldn’t be taking a short price about them on their first visit.
If Ascot is called off and the race is switched to Chepstow a week later, as happened a few years ago, I doubt if Messrs Nicholls or Williams would be heard to complain!
AP
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Diamond Harry unlike Puchestowns is a proper hurdler and for me is Big Bucks biggest test to date. I always got the impression Puchestowns din’t quite get the trip at Cheltenham..he looked to be cantering 2 out in his races there but found very little after the last.
Whether Big Bucks is just that good or he was a bit flattered by that I’m not sure.
Some of the old guns are there. Lough Derg will be spot on for this and Fair Along has retained enough ability to ensure this will be a fair test.
If Diamond Harry runs his usual race he’ll try and go to the front somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd last and if Ruby rides Big Bucks to come at the last like he usually does, I think he could regret it.
It takes an awful lot to get Diamond Harry off the bridle and if steals a few lengths on Big Bucks 2 out I doubt if he’ll find the toe to catch him and pass him.
If I was PN I would be telling Ruby to be right up Diamond Harry’s backside all the way up the straight.
I certainly wouldn’t have a bet on Karabak to beat them or be placed.
Either Diamond Harry was outclassed at Cheltemham or he just didn’t fire in his normal way. After his recent performance I think the chain of thought has to be it was the latter.
Karabak is a good horse who will win a lot of races but the spark that wins at the very top just isn’t there. You could almost guarantee under normal circumastances he’ll run a great race and he would be in the first 3 here. As the front 2 look nailed on to fight it out it comes as no surprise he’s a big price. Alan Kings are stopping like shot at the moment with this muscle problem and if that happens only one of the others need to beat him home and the bookies clean up. But for that they would make him a 5/1 shot to ensure the odds against damaging payouts were stacked in their favour.
I’ll take a chance on Diamond Harry
for this as he might just be the best hurdler Big Bucks has faced to date.If I’m wrong that’s ok cos I backed Big Bucks ages ago for the World Hurdle
Punchestowns would murder Diamond Harry and BB slapped Punchestowns twice.
Not quite sure what people are seeing.
I was at the piller chase meeting at Cheltenham last year when Big Bucks beat Punches the first time when getting 6lb,it hurt me as well as a lot of my cash was rooting for punches in accumulators,anyways Big Bucks does pull more out but i have to agree that Diamond Harry will have more speed coming over the last,as i witnessed him that day when denying Bensalem after lugging all over the shop.He seems more straightforward or just growing up.
I’ve been going over this race and can’t work it out..
The pace will be strong with Lough Derg, Fair Along and Kayf Aramis which will suit all of the market principals.
Karabak has track form and has beaten Diamond Harry before but Diamond Harry looked light that day and has seemingly improved since; handicap form is generally pretty reliable although I thought the handicapper dropped him a pretty generous amount after the Ballymore.
Given that its going to be a true run race Big Bucks’ will get the race he needs to run to his lofty rating everything in the field is going to have to improve by 9lbs and upwards. Karabak has 21lbs to find which is far more than Fair Along (12lb) and Katchit (15lb). Everything has a lot to find..
Having said all of that Ascot is a weird track these days and not somewhere I would want to punt an odds on favourite.
I think I will be leaving well alone unless I include Big Bucks’ in a multiple.
Punchestowns would murder Diamond Harry and BB slapped Punchestowns twice.
Not quite sure what people are seeing.
What exactly is this based on?
I’m a massive Big Buck’s fan but surely this is a load of cobblers? Punchestowns and DH have never come close to meeting let alone have any form lines to go by!
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I really can’t see Karabak out of the first 3 here, and I agree with Imperial Call that 12/1 looks massive compared to some of his opposition. It’s clear that even the Ballymore wasn’t far enough for him and, for a horse reported to need time between his races, the Sefton came soon enough for him not to show his best. He was always going to get done for speed over a good ground 2.5m at Ascot on his seasonal debut, and ran a blinder against Zaynar in the circumstances, far better form imo, than that of the 2nd fav.
Diamond Harry, impressive though he was, beat a bunch of far inferior horses at Haydock, and I find it hard to understand the OH’s view that the first 3 improved by 16lb, 11lb, and 7lb respectively. He’ll find this a totally different ball game, imo.
Of the others, Fair Along isn’t big or strong enough to last home at this level, Katchit continues to disappoint and, game though he his, Lough Derg showed lto aganst a half-fit Big Bucks that he has far too much to find to compete with the big boys.
The each way bet of the season so far for me, and you won’t find many 12/1 shots with so little real opposition for the 3 places.^ 2 places but spot on
halfwaytoheaven – World Hurdle Form, ME EYES, Handicap form that is gash and a host of other factors.
The only thing that will see BB beat is a huge mistake or, and this is the real test, the most dirty rancid turf track in the country doing something weird to his legs.
Would hope to see Karabak run a big race either way, just for the buzz of it all.
I would love to know what the stats are for P,Nicholls odds on favs being beaten,i have this strange feeling there are plenty!
Don’t think King is expecting much judging by those comments!
Big Bucks jnr,i see Big Bucks senior as a Gold Cup winner jumping hurdles!Unfortunately i have this nagging doubt about P,Nicholls record with Odds on shots getting beat,i dont know what it is or why,its just something that niggles me!Very very seldomly do i back odds on,i lay odds on in running regular though!
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